Science & Technology

Research shows cold far more deadly than heat

P. Gosselin
No Tricks Zone
Wed, 01 Dec 2021 18:15 UTC

More warming would save lives. A new, comprehensive Lancet study shows that far more people are being killed globally by cold weather than by hot weather.

Die kalte Sonne here looks at the impacts of temperature extremes on mortality. There's no doubt that extreme weather kills more people. But the question in these times of "global warming" is whether or not warming is going to lead to more deaths.

A new publication in the renowned journal Lancet, by Burkart et al studied 65 million deaths in 9 countries occurring between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016 in relation to temperature effects.

The researchers found that 17 of the 176 categories for the cause of death "showed J-shaped relationships with daily temperature, whereas the risk of external causes (eg, homicide, suicide, drowning, and related to disasters, mechanical, transport, and other unintentional injuries) increased monotonically with temperature."

The 17 causes of death with J-shaped curves (dependent of temperature) included heart disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, lower respiratory infection, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Using the data, the team of authors extrapolated the results to the entire global population and examined the year 2019.

The authors estimate in 2019, "the average cold-attributable mortality exceeded heat-attributable mortality in all countries for which data were available." Cold effects were most pronounced in China and in New Zealand.

In China a population attributable fraction (PAF) from cold effects was 4·3% (3·9-4·7) and the attributable rates were 32.0 deaths (27.2-36.8) per 100,000. But when looking at the heat effects in China, the PAF was only 0·4% and the attributable rates were 3·25 deaths per 100 000. In other words, cold death rates were about 10 times higher than heat deaths.

In South Africa, the authors attributed almost 20 times more deaths to cold than to heat (8372 vs 453)!

Cold definitely kills more than heat does by a long shot, and so warming would save lives. The study was sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Are these findings being blared out by the mainstream media? No, of course not. And why not? It's because they don't want people to know what's really going on.

Reader Comments

Michael L · 2021-12-01T19:02:20Z

Been on both sides of the extremes. I am not a fan of freezing to death. Cold sucks.

Psstoffgoy · 2021-12-01T20:32:46Z

Michael L Put another log on the fire! I can't take the heat, especially with high humidity!

Artex · 2021-12-01T19:38:34Z

Extreme heat tends to abate at night. Extreme cold does not, nor does it abate just because the sun is shining. I would also prefer not to freeze to death.

sbc · 2021-12-01T21:49:05Z

Anyone can freeze to death. Healthy people usually don't die of heat stroke if they aren't too stupid.

That plus plants like hot weather, they don't grow in ice too well.

so even if you can stay warm you'll starve do death. Smh.

sbc · 2021-12-01T21:50:13Z

The only reason global warming is a threat is due to the corporatization of water supplies.

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-12-01T22:00:03Z

I would sure prefer to freeze to death folks.

SBC et al. who minimize heat, you've not walked around here with a temperature of 98 and 98% humidity. It's super brutal.

Of course(someone has to say it)

Some say the world will end in fire,

Some say in ice.

From what I’ve tasted of desire

I hold with those who favor fire.

But if it had to perish twice,

I think I know enough of hate

To say that for destruction ice

Is also great

And would suffice.

By, appropriately, Frost.

RC

sbc · 2021-12-01T22:02:18Z

Rowan Cocoan I work in a freezer.-20f and in 220f ovens REGULARLY.

dude you only THINK you'd rather freeze.

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-12-01T22:05:09Z

sbc No. I KNOW it. I've spent a lot of sub zero time out skiing. For some reason, I'm kinda immune to cold and everyone who's been around me in cold weather are uniformly amazed at how when they're literally getting frostbite, I'm sleeping with the windows open. Out skiing, on lifts, I trade off gloves with them so that they can warm their hands. I stuff mine in my jacket pockets. It was more than one GF who thought I must be some hybrid from somewhere or such.

Meanwhile, my 'normal' temperature is 96.8F and yet, I radiate a LOT of heat.

RC

sbc · 2021-12-02T02:25:53Z

Rowan Cocoan Up to 160f in a 15x12 ft oven feels so good you want to pass out. Cold is miserable. Warm, even too hot, can be very welcoming. You'll just pass out and cook. A good sleep you won't wake from. Cold is just miserable. You know your freezing to death. Then comes the shivers and shaking as the cold steals your energy from you. The heat wraps you in it, donates energy. My take from extreme life experience.

btw I wear shorts and a t-shirt in the freezer when I work. People think I'm nuts. I understand your cold anecdote. Even at that, three hours in I'm done.

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-12-02T03:00:54Z

sbc I've been out in super cold both skiing and surfing. They eat up some energy.

If I had to choose, it would still be ice. Let us pray we have kind endings watching some better world erupting.

RC

HVACTech · 2021-12-02T03:07:51Z

sbc the human tolerance for pain is 130F. there is a reason why I know this fact.

sbc · 2021-12-02T06:51:47Z

HVACTech I'm not human

Artex · 2021-12-02T15:47:05Z

Rowan Cocoan I have been in those conditions, but I also live in Wisconsin and got to walk to work when I was 18 and that winter the temps dipped down to -30F.

I'd actually be far more concerned with 100F and lower than 50% humidity, because then you don't know you're becoming dehydrated. It just doesn't feel as hot with that low humidity, so you might not remember to stay hydrated.

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-12-02T16:24:04Z

Artex Skied my favorite A-Basin one time. The wind chill at the top was -60F. I was like the only guy out skiing.

RC

HVACTech · 2021-12-02T01:14:03Z

there is no such thing as 'cold', only heat exists. plants prefer warm moist environments. (much like myself) photosynthesis requires CO2 to promote plant growth for both food and oxygen. this why they are 'green'

all known forms of life are based on Carbon.

warm air is capable of holding more moisture than cold air.

and while RC is 98.6F, he is not comfortable at that temp. and prefers 72F @ 55% relative humidity.

energy can be defined as potential difference. as it does not exist until it flows...

[Link]

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-12-02T03:10:11Z

HVACTech Just call me Mr. Kelvin.

RC

HVACTech · 2021-12-02T03:20:08Z

Rowan Cocoan you are a fat girl in a nail salon...

and you want me to tell you how to unlock the thermostat?

Artex · 2021-12-02T15:49:58Z

HVACTech Technically, plants are green because chlorophyll absorbs red and UV light while reflecting blue and yellow light. But I'm just hassling you.

HVACTech · 2021-12-03T03:39:13Z

Artex that's all good! most of the time.. no one knows WTF I am talking about...

[Link]

Patrick Donnelly · 2021-12-02T07:25:33Z

For every 10K, chemical reactions double in speed. Life is based on chemistry.

Cold causes blood to thicken and clots to increase

At 0K there is no matter, nor energy. Nothing. Just the stillness of an empty universe.

HVACTech · 2021-12-05T03:39:08Z

Patrick Donnelly "At 0K there is no matter, nor energy. Nothing. Just the stillness of an empty universe."

are you aware that the subject matter is heat? and if so. what can you tell me about it? anything?

or, are you just here to be rude?

[Link]

Rick Pisces · 2021-12-04T19:16:46Z

Elderly Eskimos would check out by going out onto the ice and just sitting and waiting. I'm told it's a painless death.

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-12-04T20:14:57Z

Rick Pisces I agree. Just go and lie down and eat snow until you're gone, rather than burning and screaming etc. Then again - and this goes against my theorem - (as re painless, that's probably true, but unfreezing almost frozen extremities is painful.)

Then again, for some arctic tribes, 'hell' was perceived to be cold. I guess (I actually know) that I've spent too much time down here - I've still got my AC going.

RC

Psstoffgoy · 2021-12-04T20:33:20Z

Rowan Cocoan After your done shivering and as your body and organs begin to shut down, you get a feeling of warmth and comfort along with a need to sleep (some people actually undress). Once you drift off to sleep, your usually going to die. If you don't die you will probably wish you did, the ensuing frostbite is extremely painful. I can think of much worse ways to take a dirt nap, like dying of thirst, starving to death or becoming purina bug chow in a fucking jungle!

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-12-04T20:48:06Z

Psstoffgoy Best words I've read about it:

TO BUILD A FIRE

Day had broken cold and grey, exceedingly cold and grey, when the man turned aside from the main Yukon trail and climbed the high earth-bank, where a dim and little-travelled trail led eastward through the fat spruce timberland. It was a steep bank, and he paused for breath at the top, excusing the act to himself by looking at his watch. It was nine o’clock. There was no sun nor hint of sun, though there was not a cloud in the sky. It was a clear day, and yet there seemed an intangible pall over the face of things, a subtle gloom that made the day dark, and that was due to the absence of sun. This fact did not worry the man. He was used to the lack of sun. It had been days since he had seen the sun, and he knew that a few more days must pass before that cheerful orb, due south, would just peep above the sky-line and dip immediately from view.

And,

At the man’s heels trotted a dog, a big native husky, the proper wolf-dog, grey-coated and without any visible or temperamental difference from its brother, the wild wolf. The animal was depressed by the tremendous cold. It knew that it was no time for travelling. Its instinct told it a truer tale than was told to the man by the man’s judgment. I n reality, it was not merely colder than fifty below zero; it was colder than sixty below, than seventy below. It was seventy-five below zero. Since the freezing-point is thirty-two above zero, it meant that one hundred and seven degrees of frost obtained. The dog did not know anything about thermometers. Possibly in its brain there was no sharp consciousness of a condition of very cold such as was in the man’s brain. But the brute had its instinct. It experienced a vague but menacing apprehension that subdued it and made it slink along at the man’s heels, and that made it question eagerly every unwonted movement of the man as if expecting him to go into camp or to seek shelter somewhere and build a fire. The dog had learned fire, and it wanted fire, or else to burrow under the snow and cuddle its warmth away from the air.

The frozen moisture of its breathing had settled on its fur in a fine powder of frost, and especially were its jowls, muzzle, and eyelashes whitened by its crystalled breath. The man’s red beard and moustache were likewise frosted, but more solidly, the deposit taking the form of ice and increasing with every warm, moist breath he exhaled. Also, the man was chewing tobacco, and the muzzle of ice held his lips so rigidly that he was unable to clear his chin when he expelled the juice. The result was that a crystal beard of the colour and solidity of amber was increasing its length on his chin. If he fell down it would shatter itself, like glass, into brittle fragments. But he did not mind the appendage. It was the penalty all tobacco-chewers paid in that country, and he had been out before in two cold snaps. They had not been so cold as this, he knew, but by the spirit thermometer at Sixty Mile he knew they had been registered at fifty below and at fifty-five.

He held on through the level stretch of woods for several miles, crossed a wide flat of nigger-heads, and dropped down a bank to the frozen bed of a small stream. This was Henderson Creek, and he knew he was ten miles from the forks. He looked at his watch. It was ten o’clock. He was making four miles an hour, and he calculated that he would arrive at the forks at half-past twelve. He decided to celebrate that event by eating his lunch there. [Link]

Psstoffgoy · 2021-12-04T21:09:38Z

Rowan Cocoan He never did get that fire going! When asked the best way to start a fire in a survival situation my reply is always the same, " a flame thrower if you have one" then I get a blank look, it's to funny.

HVACTech · 2021-12-05T03:45:43Z

Psstoffgoy you do not have a propane torch? not only are they cheap, but they last forever.

Is this not advertisement?! Rather, declaration of capabilities?

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Research shows cold far more deadly than heat

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