SINGAPORE : In recent interviews, Thai tsunami prophet Smith Dharmasaroja said the epicentre of the next earthquake in the region could move further north from last year's temblors, which puts Malaysia and Singapore at risk of being hit by killer waves.

Since predicting correctly the December 26 tsunami last year, Dr Dharmasaroja, who was then labelled a "madman" and "rumour-monger", has been taken seriously by many who do not wish to see a repeat of the disaster that killed 290,000.

Two days ago, Dr Dharmasaroja - now a vice-minister in the Office of the Prime Minister of Thailand - told TODAY that, based on his studies, an earthquake with its heart slightly north of last year's epicentre could "send waves surging through the Straits of Malacca, which could smash into Malaysia and Singapore".

But some local and overseas experts are sceptical. One of them, Professor Pan Tso-Chien, Dean of School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Nanyang Technological University, does not think that tidal waves could "smash" into Singapore.

Dr Dharmasaroja's prediction did not consider energy loss that the waves would suffer as a result of the area's terrain, said Professor Pan. To cause tsunamis, an earthquake larger than a measurement of 7 on the Richter scale would be needed, he said.

There is no way to accurately predict where quake epicentres would be. But judging by history, earthquakes of such magnitudes would most likely happen on the Western side of the Andaman Islands, said Professor Pan.

And the Andaman Islands would act as a buffer before waves make their way eastbound across the Andaman Sea, towards Thailand and the Straits of Malacca.

Professor Pan also believes that the narrow Straits would further slow down the tidal waves coming into the area.

"I am not sure if the wave energy that would be transmitted to the mouth of the Straits of Malacca would be bigger than what we saw last year," said Professor Pan.

Another expert, University of Colorado Geological Sciences Professor Roger Bilham, noted that a 1881 quake measuring 7.9 on the Richter scale, centred on the Nicobar Islands, "caused no tsunami to propagate eastwards".

"My reading of the historical data is that only in very rare M9 earthquakes (quakes measuring more than 9 on the scale) do tsunami propagate eastward from the Sumatra-Nicobar-Andaman system," said Dr Bilham.

When contacted last night, Dr Dharmasaroja said he agreed with Prof Pan that waves lose energy if they enter the Straits of Malacca, but said they would "gain height" instead. He also disputed the argument that the Straits, which he estimated was about 1,000m deep, is too shallow to sustain tsunamis.

Last year, the waves that hit Penang - where more than 30 were killed - travelled in depths of about 1,300m before unleashing its power, said Dr Dharmasaroja.

"There could have more casualties in Penang if not for the tip of the Sumatra island, which blocked the waves. It's up to you to believe me or not," he said of his prediction.

Though the National Environment Agency (NEA) thinks it is unlikely that Singapore would be hit by a tsunami, it is not taking chances.

One of its units, the Meteorological Services Division, plans to enhance seismic stations in Singapore to improve the detection of quakes that could cause tsunamis.

The NEA is also working with the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore to enhance the local tidal gauge network.