Masada as seen from a drone.
© JP Worthington/VimeoMasada as seen from a drone.
The Iran attack story continues to unfold. Everybody has an opinion - but we still don't actually know what really happened. As a result, some think the attack was a victory for Iran. Others, even those on the Left, think not. Finian Cunningham calls it "lame retaliation".

The Iranians say they gave the American 72 hours' notice.

Pepe Escobar says that the Iranians and Americans met in Oman and the Iranians told the Americans their attack would be on military bases only. And...

So this is how it happened.

Burns met an Iranian delegation in Oman.

He was told the Israeli punishment was inevitable - and if the US got involved then all US bases will be attacked, and the Strait of Hormuz would be blocked.

Burns said we do nothing if no civilians are harmed. The Iranians said it will be a military base or an embassy.

The CIA said go ahead and do it.
The Americans of course deny this.

So, somebody's lying.

Over the years the Iranians have shown a tendency to exaggerate - usually about military capability โ€” but they do not usually lie directly.

The US however doesn't just fib a bit - it likes really really big lies. For America, the truth is whatever is most convenient for its policies, knowing that the media will always propagate Official Doctrine, just as in the Middle Ages the Vatican could be sure it's pronouncements would be heard in sermons all over Europe, and believers would take them to heart. Those who dissented could be burned at the stake. We don't do that โ€” we have Belmarsh prison.

As Putin says, the US is the Empire of Lies.

In this case, the Americans keep on changing their story.

At first, the American said there were 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles. They did not mention ballistic missiles.

Now, the number is 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 100 ballistic missiles. The media are talking up MIRVs and hypersonic weapons.

The US number now is the same as the IDF was claiming in the beginning. but it seems the number is going up.

The IDF insists that its "David Sling" system intercepted 99% of 120 missiles breaching its airspace.

The Americans and Brits intercepted only drones apparently โ€” 47% of the drones โ€” which means that about 80 entered Israeli airspace to add to the other hardware hurtling through Israeli skies.

Israelis say โ€” or at least said โ€” there were only two hits - with an unrealistically high percentage of interception. According to some Western analysts, however, the Iranians achieved a 6% success rate and 9 hits on Israeli targets โ€” with both drones and missiles.

Israeli missile interceptors are impressive in the sky.
israel interceptor missiles iran retaliation
Israeli interceptor missiles launched at Iran retaliatory strike.
But take a look at this video that appeared on Larry Johnson's site, purportedly a ballistic missile maneuvering to avoid an interceptor.

Where are the interceptors?

Is this a ballistic missile?

Or a cruise missile?

It is too slow for a hypersonic missile and unlike a ballistic missile โ€” which is ...well...ballistic โ€” it can maneuver at low altitude โ€” not to avoid interception I think (I couldn't see Israeli Interceptors โ€” but for precision targeting โ€” in any case, performance which would be characteristic of a cruise missile.

You can see it projectile changes course at the very last moment at low altitude as if adjusting its trajectory to acquire its target.

Let us keep in mind that Iranian missiles do not use GPS for targeting - despite what the Israelis claim!

Given 72 hours advance warning, Western media speculate the Israelis should have been able to do a lot better, especially with US support.

Now we hear talk of MIRV missiles (multiple warheads) or hypersonic missiles which neither the Americans nor the Israelis would be able to intercept at all, much less 99%.

The Iranians may have, in fact, experimented with both kinds of sophisticated weaponry - but not in any quantity.

The fact that the Israelis were able to down so many "projectiles" - albeit at a cost of $3 billion suggests that the Iranians were, as I posited before, mostly using old stuff, demonstrating that even with that they could get through.

That said, while American sources are admitting nine hits, there may have been more as Andrei Martynov suggests.

So what happens if shit hits the fan? What if Finian Cunningham is right? What if the Israelis mistake the message and escalate?

The Iranians have promised a gloves off response of a magnitude perhaps 100 times greater.

The Russian Playbook

Netanyahu is Israel's Zelensky. Israel is America's Ukraine.

By contrast, Iran seems to be following the Russian playbook.

Their attack was classic Russian tactics. Drones, decoys air defense systems, followed by missiles of different types. Precision targeting. Avoidance of civilian casualties. Restraint.

IF Israel mounts a major attack against Iran, it is likely to be vicious - just like Ukrainian attacks in Ukraine. Therefore, you can expect Iranians to apply other successful Russian strategies.

John Helmer has suggested Iran might adopt Russia's current strategy of attacking critical infrastructure. That means Israel's offshore oilfields and especially power stations - the electrical grid โ€” which are highly vulnerable โ€” and unlike in the Ukraine, localized.
israel electrical grid
Israel power sources
israel electrical grid
© CRMLCaption
If you read my upcoming special article for coffee buyers, you will understand that the US faces an economic and social crisis very soon - no matter who is president.

A war with Iran would make things much, much worse for it. If this were a poker game Iran, China, and Russia have all the chips โ€” and all the cards.


Does history repeat itself? Of course it does.

Everyone thinks it doesn't.

That's because no one really knows - or wants to know - what happened in the first place โ€” we mythologize and fictionalize events in the past to correspond to present day realities and needs.

Masada never happened as Israelis think it did - so they have learnt nothing. That thing about history โ€” we don't want to learn and when it repeats we don't know what's happening..

Masada? It wasn't the Romans that "done it".

It was a crazy sect of Jewish true believers who self-destructed.

That historical Masada is a rationalization for a future Masada โ€” another crazy sect - of Jewish true believers self-destructing โ€” Zionists.