To the last Ukrainian: Kiev begins doomed conscription scheme that includes people with significant disabilities

Sputnik
Tue, 26 Dec 2023 12:01 UTC

© Presidency of Ukraine/Getty Images

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy. Presidency of Ukraine

Ukraine has been under martial law since February 24, 2022, and the next day President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on general mobilization. It is forbidden for men aged 18-60 to leave Ukraine during the period of martial law.

Comment: Many fled when they could, others have bribed their way out since, and those that are left have found ways to avoid being dragged to the front.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have said they do not know how to mobilize 500,000 more troops, as volunteers have "run out".

"The volunteers who wanted to join the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have run out... To say exactly when mobilization will be and how qualitatively, it is difficult to say... how to implement it physically, there is no understanding," said Major General of Ukrainian forces Dmitry Marchenko in an interview with Deutsche Welle.

According to Marchenko, only 20 people will be mobilized to replace every 100 military personnel lost at the front. At the same time, he reacted positively to the proposal to lower the age limit from 27 to 25 years and attempt to extradite those who had fled the country, adding that "it is not worthwhile to fill the holes at the front with women when the mass of men are hiding abroad."

Comment: And yet the number of women appearing in footage at the frontlines has been increasing:

At a press conference on December 19, Volodymyr Zelensky gave figures for a new large-scale mobilization for the first time.

He said that the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had approached him with a request to mobilize an additional 450,000-500,000 people. According to Zelensky, such a mobilization would cost Ukraine 500 billion hryvnia ($13.4 billion).

Later, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), said that mobilizing such a number of people would take at least a year.Ukraine has been under martial law since February 24, 2022, the next day Zelensky signed a decree on general mobilization. It is forbidden for men between 18 and 60 to leave the country wile martial law remains in force.

Military recruitment officers can serve summonses for conscription in public places, and videos of incidents on the streets, at gas stations and in cafes have circulated on social media.

A summons does not necessarily have to be presented by a representative of the Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support — as military commissions have recently been named in Ukraine — but can also be done by bosses of firms where conscripts work, chiefs of Housing and Economic Committees and other officials.

Comment: More details on the new parametres, as well as footage of the new enforcement in action:

To the last Ukrainian:

People with "amputated limbs, practical blindness, absence of one lung or eye and bilateral deafness" can be conscripted into military based on draft of new law on mobilization.

"The large draft law on mobilization exempts from military service on the basis of health status only in the presence of the first and second groups of disabilities.

The third group is not mentioned in the draft document, so they are automatically considered suitable. Assigning the third group of disabilities means quite serious health problems, in particular limb amputations.

Here are the main examples: absence of one lung or eye; practical blindness resulting from an occupational disease, occupational disability or military injury. One eye after a domestic injury or illness; bilateral deafness; paralysis or absence of a hand, paralysis of the upper or lower limbs; a significant defect of the bones of the skull, pulsation of the brain; the absence of a hand and a higher level of amputation of the upper limb; the absence of all phalanges of the four fingers of the hand, except for the first; absence of fingers on the hand, stump of the thigh or lower leg; congenital or acquired dislocation of the hip joints or one hip joint with significant functional impairment; complete thyroidectomy (removal of the thyroid gland); artificial valve in the heart; absence of one kidney with pathology of the other; bilateral mastectomy (breast removal in women due to mammary gland diseases).

The draft law on mobilization, which is being prepared, provides for new duties for Ukrainians.

On December 21, MP Maryana Bezugla published on Facebook theses from the upcoming document, from which it follows that everyone is obliged to appear at the military commissariat to clarify personal data and undergo a medical examination.

There will no longer be a category of "limited suitability" for service."

Zelensky is in zugzwang when it comes to mobilization. Ukraine is unlikely to have a lot of big offensive potential lacking both the motivated troops and the necessary equipment in the quantity needed, however even to defend the country needs a lot more manpower.

Ukraine is currently tightening the mobilization laws. Which will lead to some unpleasant things. Many men will literally go into hiding, not showing up to work not to receive a draft notice as long as they're able to survive off their savings as long as possible or the money their wives, girlfriends or parents earn. In 2021 Ukraine's agricultural exports totaled over $27 billion, accounting for 41% of the country's overall exports.

This economy sector took a massive hit with this war. Many fields are covered with mines, Ukraine lost control of some rich agricultural areas, Kakhovka dam destruction, Ukraine not able to export as much it wants to with sea routes due to Russian blockade. Another important factor turned out to be the mobilization. Most of Ukrainian villages have been emptied out of military age men.

From conversations with people involved in agricultural business it's acknowledged that a lot of workers from rural areas have been mobilized, many have already been killed which will lead to shortage of workers in agricultural sector all across Ukraine. With villages and small towns already maxed out Ukraine will have to find a way to mobilize the planned 500,000 in big cities.

Looking to mobilize half a million men that have been trying to avoid exactly that for close to 2 year is by no means going to be easy task in itself. Then you will have to equip and train them. Those are two more problems even if he accept it as a fact that Ukraine will be able to mobilize them. Ukraine will need the resources and to find a way to train them under the threat of Russian strikes on potential training grounds.

Again we're talking about the need to forcibly draft 500,000 people in already limited mobilization pool of Ukraine. The men that didn't sign up on their own to join the army since February, 2022. Trying to take out 500,000 more men out of the already struggling economy to mobilize them into the army, plus the men that will try to hide from mobilization will certainly become a major problem for Ukraine next year.

This is one big crisis in the making.Combine that with the uncertainties when it comes to military and financial aid in upcoming year and there is a situation where Ukraine is going to be under a lot of pressure from various angles, not just by the Russian military on the front line slowly grinding its way forward.

Meanwhile in Russia: Russia to increase troop number to 1.5 million in response 'external threats' - Shoigu