Blinken's visit to Vietnam will be a test for Hanoi-Moscow relations, China rejects offer of visit by Secretary of State

The Eastern Herald
Fri, 14 Apr 2023 12:00 UTC

© Reuters

US secretary of state Antony Blinken meets Vietnamese prime minister Pham Minh Chinh in Hanoi on Saturday.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is visiting Vietnam, where he will delve into the diplomatic tussle between Vietnam and China over the right to develop oil and gas reserves off Vietnam's coast in the South China Sea .

Blinken's visit was preceded by a March 29 phone call between US President Joe Biden and the leader of Vietnam's ruling Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong, in which they agreed to expand bilateral cooperation.

The United States is counting on a reduction in Russian arms purchases by Vietnam and other countries, said one of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's aides.

Comment: According to some commentators, the visit isn't going particularly well:

"This development would be consistent with US law," Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink said.

Blinken is going on a trip to Asia, during which he will visit Vietnam and Japan. Japan will host a meeting of G7 foreign ministers, to be held in the Japanese city of Karuizawa from April 16-18.

Comment: Interestingly, just today: Chaos ensues as man attacks Japan's PM with 'smoke bomb' just before speech

"We need partners like Vietnam to diversify their defense purchases away from Russia," Kritenbrink said.

According to Kritenbrink, the United States has made its position clear to its allies and partners.

This year marks the tenth anniversary of the U.S.-Vietnam comprehensive partnership, and the two countries are discussing how to take their relationship to the next level of strategic partnership.

Vietnam maintains comprehensive strategic partnerships with Moscow and Beijing.

Hanoi is simultaneously trying to maintain a historically difficult relationship with China, bilateral ties with a related Russia, and mend its relationship with the United States, an enemy defeated less than 50 years ago.

These conflicts of interest can be a test of the "three NOs" of Vietnamese foreign policy: no alliances with other countries against a third country, no military alliances with other countries, and no military bases on its territory.

Colin Koh, a maritime security researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told media he believes Hanoi should strike a balance between Russia and the West and should not be perceived by Moscow as too leaning towards the West because of the war in Ukraine.

"It at least contributes to Russia's acceptance of Vietnam's current position on the war in Ukraine," the expert said.

Comment: The Guardian reports on China's rejection of Blinken's offer to pop by:

China has reportedly refused to reschedule a visit from the US secretary of state, as Antony Blinken kicked off a trip to Vietnam, a crucial South-east Asian trade partner that Washington is looking to bolster ties with as it works to balance Beijing's growing assertiveness in the region and beyond.

The visit comes as China refused to let Blinken visit Beijing over concerns that the FBI will release the results of an investigation into the suspected Chinese spy balloon downed in February, the Financial Times reported on Saturday, citing sources.

That's likely to be of little concern to China.

On Saturday Blinken emphasised the importance of human rights in a meeting with the Vietnamese prime minister, Pham Minh Chinh, a US State Department spokesperson said.

Rights groups have regularly raised concerns over Vietnam's treatment of dissidents.

Officials have not said what this closer relationship might entail but South-east Asia expert Murray Hiebert, who visited Vietnam in February and spoke with senior government officials, said it could include increased military cooperation and US weapons supplies.

The US intends to try to use Vietnam as a vassal to further their belligerence against China; as they've done with Japan and the Philippines: US plans to 'quickly' boost military presence near China with 4 new bases in the Philippines

With the Vietnam war era an increasingly distant memory, Washington now considers Hanoi, in the words of the top US diplomat for east Asia, Daniel Kritenbrink, "one of America's most important partners in the region".

But while the United States will probably to push for stronger ties with Vietnam, Hanoi may not share the enthusiasm, said an analyst with Rand Corporation, Derek Grossman.

"For one thing, there is no need, from Vietnam's perspective, to unnecessarily antagonise China ... Another is that Hanoi wants to avoid appearing openly part of the US Indo-Pacific strategy designed to counter China," he said.

It's probably not about 'openly' anything, Vietnam has little to benefit from antagonising China. The US likely will force Vietnam to choose between itself and China, but that tactic hasn't been very successful thus far.

Earlier this week, a Hanoi court sentenced a prominent Vietnamese political activist to six years in prison for conducting anti-state activities, his lawyer said.

See also:

• Japan's Prime Minister Kishida makes surprise visit to Ukraine to meet Zelensky
• Philippines' President Marcos open to buying Russian fuel, proposes new Myanmar approach