RTFri, 04 Mar 2022 10:52 UTC
© Dado Ruvic/ReutersRussian Ruble • US Dollar
Credit Suisse strategist says US dollar has now reached critical inflection point Cutting Russia off from accessing its foreign currency reserves
may end the hegemony of the US dollar, according to Credit Suisse short-term interest rate strategist Zoltan Pozsar. He told Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast:
"Imagine a response on the back of this, where a lot of exporters of whatever commodities and widgets decide to invoice things in a different currency. All these dollars you're earning and all this money you keep in the West is at risk.
The expert added that nations that have joined the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may invoice the goods in yuan.
"You can see new financial centers by invoicing a bunch of trade in a different dominant currency and there's all sorts of reasons to that now."
The analyst added that
markets that are currently dominated by the euro and the dollar would clearly feel the impact of the move over time.
The US, Japan, and the EU barred the Central Bank of Russia from tapping a significant part of its forex reserves held abroad, in response to the country's invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
The unprecedented step doesn't cut Russia off from its foreign currency entirely. The embargo still allows Russia to use it for energy payments and the country is still able to access its reserves held domestically and in China.
However, the measure, along with other economic penalties,
sent the Russian ruble plummeting this week, with the central bank unable to provide support for the currency, while the country's' financial markets were thrown into turmoil.
Comment: Double whammy?
Interest payments to foreign investors holding Russian government bonds will be temporarily suspended, the country's Central Bank announced on Wednesday. The move comes after some $400 billion of the nation's reserves were frozen abroad as part of sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.
Coupon payments for foreigners holding ruble-denominated sovereign debt (or OFZs) have been banned, and Russian companies have also been prohibited from paying dividends to overseas shareholders. The Central Bank did not specify how long the suspension, which doesn't apply to domestic investors, would last.
The measure is aimed at preventing the withdrawal of funds from the financial market and mass sales of Russian securities, the media has reported, citing a statement from the regulator's press service. A ban on the writing-off of securities from the accounts of foreign investors has also been introduced.
On Wednesday, Russia was due to pay a 6.5% coupon on an OFZ due to mature in February 2024 and the next payment on hard currency debt, coupons on two Eurobonds, is due in two weeks' time, according to Reuters.
Earlier, RBC reported that foreign investors would not be able to receive interest on the Eurobond issue due to the US sanctions against Russia.
Russian banks and companies hold $391 billion in outstanding external debt as of October 1, 2021, Reuters said, citing Dmitry Polevoy from Locko-Invest investment bank.
On Tuesday, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said Moscow was temporarily blocking foreign investors from selling Russian assets to ensure they take a considered decision, not one driven by political pressure.
Punitive measures could take months:
Russia's richest people have lost about a third of their wealth over the past week, due to Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine, according to the latest Bloomberg Billionaires Index.The impact of US and EU sanctions against Russian oligarchs and the collapse of the ruble has seen their collective fortune shrink by $80 billion since the start of Moscow's military operation, according to the index.
The report says some saw their wealth halved, with the biggest loser in dollar terms being Gennady Timchenko, of investment and asset management company Volga Group, who saw his fortune fall from $22 billion to $10.3 billion.
Vladimir Potanin, the head of nickel producer Norilsk Nickel, is Russia's richest man and in the number-58 position on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with $24.4 billion. He has not been sanctioned so far, but has nonetheless lost about a quarter of his wealth.
Some leeway for the wealthy:
Russia's wealthiest tycoons may not be hit immediately by British embargos, a media report has claimed, alleging that the government has been unable to build a substantive case against them.
In a report published by The Times on Thursday, it was alleged that the Foreign Office and National Crime Agency have so far failed to mount "reasonable grounds" for targeting the most influential moguls, such as Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich, with sanctions because "they have struggled to link their finances to" Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the publication, the crime agency tried to put forward a case against Abramovich in 2018, but failed. British ministers have also reportedly been warned that Russian billionaires could sue the government "for millions" if punitive measures are applied on a "flawed basis."
With the threat of sanctions hanging over billionaires, they are already said to be transferring their cash out of the country. Nigel Kushner, the chief executive of W Legal, who provides advice to Russia's wealthiest on sanctions, alleges that individuals have already come forward asking for help on how to move their funds.
How is crypto handling the sanctions?
Major cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has blocked the accounts of Russian citizens and companies that are subject to US sanctions, the platform's CEO said on Friday. In a series of statements on Twitter, Brian Armstrong pointed out that every US company has to follow the sanctions laws, regardless of the type of assets it handles.
The exchange is "not pre-emptively banning" all Russians from using Coinbase, Armstrong added, acknowledging that "everyone deserves access to basic financial services" and ordinary citizens are using crypto "as a lifeline now that their currency has collapsed." However, according to him, if the US government decides to impose a ban on ordinary Russians, the exchange will comply.
On Thursday, similar measures were introduced by the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance. The Russian branch of the exchange, in a statement on Telegram, said:
"We have restricted access to the platform to everyone on the sanctions list. Thus, users who hold cards issued by sanctioned banks cannot use them on the platform, adding that if the international sanctions are expanded, Binance will also comply."
Binance reiterated, however, that it is not going to 'unilaterally freeze' the accounts of millions of Russian users as such a move would contradict the reason why cryptocurrencies exist.
European officials began discussing restricting Russians' access to cryptocurrency after the US and Britain expressed fears that Russia could use it to circumvent the sanctions. On Thursday, the EU said that it could target Russia's crypto assets if the current sanctions over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine prove insufficient.
The EU, the US and Britain targeted top Russian politicians, businessmen and industries with an unprecedented number of restrictions. According to Coinbase CEO Armstrong, however, it's unlikely that wealthy Russians would resort to crypto to avoid the sanctions.
"Because it is an open ledger, trying to sneak lots of money through crypto would be more traceable than using US dollars cash, art, gold, or other assets."
Earlier this week another major crypto exchange, Kraken, spoke against freezing the accounts of its Russian clients. If the platform was to voluntarily block residents of countries that provoke violence around the world, all US accounts should be frozen first, Kraken CEO Jesse Powell said on Twitter.
Comment: Double whammy? Punitive measures could take months: Some leeway for the wealthy: How is crypto handling the sanctions?