Kerry and Lavrov
On the 13th of September a new ceasefire went into effect in Syria. The ceasefire itself has been shrouded in mystery, its terms remain unreleased and only a few scraps of information have been released to the public. As Paul Mansfield wrote in a recent SOTT Focus, Russia and the US are alleged to have agreed to begin joint strikes against the al Nusra terrorist group in Syria following 7 days of a nationwide ceasefire. Already this plan has begun falling apart. Russia has exposed the US for neglecting its role in separating 'legitimate opposition' from al Nusra. Since this is exactly what happened during the last Syrian ceasefire we shouldn't be surprised.
But in the end, by bending to Russia's political savvy, the West continues to lose its mask of sanity.
The first Syrian ceasefire was declared on February 27th 2016, following the deaths of an estimated 470,000 people from all sides of the US-instigated conflict.
Putin said, "I am convinced that the American party's agreement with the joint action can radically affect the crisis in Syria. Finally a real chance appeared to put an end to years of bloodshed and violence. This result should facilitate humanitarian access to all needy Syrian citizens."
Thanks to US deceit that has not happened. Instead, in provinces like Idlib 20,000 Syrians are besieged by terrorist groups, dying of hunger, lack of medication, and warfare. But one thing that did come out of it was that terrorist groups like al Nusra and their sponsors in the US felt the heat of public pressure, applied stylishly by Russian diplomacy. The world watched as the US squirmed to avoid label of 'terrorist group' applied to their groups, with al Nusra eventually changing their name and announcing they had 'disconnected' from al Qaeda. And most preciously US State Department spokesperson John Kirby squirmed while claiming that the US could not get their rebels to stop 'intermingling' with terrorists:
Thus, the ceasefire helped to focus attention on terrorist groups in Syria, pinpoint their sponsors, and justify Russian-Syrian fighting in the country.
Just a few days ago yet another nationwide ceasefire agreement went into effect, and once again it is being violated. Is it because the West has lost control of its proxies? What is happening on the ground? What strategic purpose does this ceasefire have for the US and for Russia?
The US intended to implement the ceasefire immediately before Syrian and Russian forces took control of Aleppo:
Had the US ceasefire plan as originally conceived come into effect the Syrian army would have given up control of both of the two main roads into Aleppo: the Castello road from the north and the Ramousseh road from the south. That would have made the government's position in Aleppo extremely precarious and vulnerable to any collapse of the ceasefire.If the US and their proxies lose Aleppo it will be very difficult for these 'opposition groups' to claim that they have any legitimate stake in Syria's future. If they were at least to gain control of major cities, then they would have bargaining chips. At least this is what their sponsors likely believe, though the Syrian people themselves want nothing to do with terrorist mercenaries tearing their country to pieces. Would you?
The recent government victories in south west Aleppo have radically changed the picture. With the Syrian army back in control of the Ramousseh district its communications from the south are secure.
But far from losing Aleppo Russian, Syrian, Hezbollah, and Iranian forces have very effectively been showing them the door. The result is that the ceasefire has gone into effect with the US and its proxies on the losing end.
As Adam Garrie recently wrote for The Duran, "The fundamental difference in outlook between the US and Russia about the Syrian conflict makes the failure of the latest 'cessation of hostilities' agreement all but certain." This is true. Terrorist groups like Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest) continue fighting Syrian forces in the Malah Farms, which a major terrorist supply line to Aleppo runs through, and at the Ramouseh Artillery Base in Southern Aleppo, which the Syrian Army's Tiger Forces only recently captured from terrorist forces.
Jaish al-Fatah is, by the New York Times own admission, a coalition of Islamist groups like al Nusra, Ahrar al Sham, and other 'moderates' supplied by Western intelligence agencies. The very name 'Army of Conquest' suggests something much less 'moderate' than Western media reports suggest.
As Putin himself noted, the terrorists are once again using the ceasefire to regroup. They are clearly not ready to quit, and their sponsors aren't either.
But Russia is not stupid. They know that any 'ceasefire agreement' that they reach with the US will be violated, as was the case with previous ceasefire attempts. But in a time of undeclared war, diplomacy obviously has its own place in the fighting, and there is more to 'success' than an agreed end to hostilities with a psychopathic foe.
After all, this is a time of open, yet undeclared, war, and those waging it know it. Massive NATO war games carried out on Russia's border on the 75th anniversary of the Nazi invasion attest to that. As do Russian forces massive military exercises codenamed 'Caucasus2016' that ended just a few days before the Syrian ceasefire began:
Some have referred to this as the "Summer of Provocation" after NATO engaged in unprecedented military exercises led by Germany along Poland's border with Russia featuring over 30,000 troops and advanced military hardware. The exercises, known as the Anaconda War Games, were the largest foreign military buildup along Poland's border since the Nazis invaded in World War II and occurred on the 75th anniversary of that invasion.As J. Flores said in a recent interview concerning the geopolitical shifts of Turkey, '[I]n reality it's about developing a policy based on what has always been the rule of thumb in diplomacy, to have as much good relations with as many states as possible, at any given time.' As Lavrov recently said,
Lavrov also added that "no one can give" a 100% guarantee that the agreements will be realized.Lavrov is not the only one sharing extreme skepticism regarding the agreement. Kerry has also said that the deal is unlikely to work out - though of course he blames Russia for this. And the bottom line is they did not plan on it 'working'. But the fact remains that the US has, yet again, been forced to accept Russian terms. As Alexander Mercouris writes, "At the risk of making a very big guess that may be completely wrong, if it is true, as the Russians say, that the Syrians and the Iranians have approved the agreement then the major concession - whatever it is - which is being kept secret has most probably been made by the US."
"As I have already said, there are too many players involved in this puzzle, and the interests of a whole number of them are diametrically opposite. However, the fact that we were able to create the International Syria Support Group, in which participate all countries without exception who are influencing the situation in one way or another, including Saudi Arabia and Iran - I think this is a great achievement," the Russian minister stated.
Though Russia-US agreements seem doomed to fail, their failures are quite revealing. By creating sensible agreements which the US continues to violate, from Donbass to Damascus, Russia continues to prove what the West is really interested in - not peace, not human rights, but domination. They continue to give the US opportunity to 'save face' and thus help to de-escalate NATO's strategy of tension. And, rather than being isolated by Western aggression, Russia continues to build coalitions with US allies, and gain political capital worldwide. That's impressive.
And very much to the point. It's very simple, if only everyone could look at it through unclouded vision.