Puppet Masters

Have Russia, Syria and Turkey agreed on joint operations in Syria?

Valentin Vasilescu
Katehon
Thu, 01 Sep 2016 14:24 UTC

If Russia wanted to, it could deploy three armored divisions to Syria within 72 hours and thereby permanently solve the problem of Islamist rebels. The US could do the same in its pursuit of removing Bashar al-Assad from power. Therefore, the two powers' involvement in Syria and the fighting has been done mostly by proxies, while each of the two great powers tries to cheat the other. This balance was disturbed by the Turkish military intervention in Northern Syria. The intervention could have ruined the rules established between the US and Russia. However, things were clarified and there was an unexpected chance to rapidly conclude hostilities in Syria.

After August 24th, 2016, the date that the Turkish army launched the operation around the town Jarablus, several rounds of talks, the latest of which was in Baghdad, were held between Russian, Syrian, and Turkish officers on limiting and controlling Turkey's actions. After the failed coup, Turkey is no longer the aggressive Turkey that downed the Russian Su-24 jet at the end of 2015. Therefore, Turkish sources say that a consensus on more points was achieved in the end in terms of limiting the Turkish "Euphrates Shield" operation to Northern Syria in accordance with Syrian interests. Russian army staff officers were accepted as "referees" to help control the planners of the Turkish Euphrates Shield operation.

Comment: Elijah Magnier tells a similar story:

During their meeting in St. Petersburg and following consecutive reunions later, plus an exchange of visits by high-ranking military officials, Russia and Turkey agreed on the role the Turkish forces could be offered in Syria, within specific parameters that will serve both sides interest, as long as there are limits and guarantees offered by both parties. Details of the Turkish forces' presence and deployment on the ground were discussed, including what each side could offer to thwart the US plan to divide Syria, a plan that was helping the Kurds to establish a "state", known as Rojava, from the north-east to the north-west of Syria, with a permanent US military presence. ...

Ankara committed itself to hunting down "ISIS" along the Syrian border with Turkey, and to preventing the Kurds from establishing themselves along the borders. Russia has accepted a Turkish incursion into Syrian territory due to the Kurds' declared hostility to the government in Damascus when YPG forces attacked and expelled the Syrian army from al-Hasakah city to the suburbs, with US backing, - a clear intention to initiate the partition of Syria. Russia stands against a Kurdish state ruled by the US in the new Kremlin Mediterranean base, Syria. ...

Russia understands that the US is reluctant to exert influence over its allies in the Middle East to instruct their proxies in Syria to stay away from the (ex) Nusra group (Al-Qaida in Sham, newly rebranded as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham). Turkey expressed its willingness to collaborate and instruct many rebel groups under its direct influence, to reject unification, avoid the merger proposed by Nusra, and keep its distance from the Jihadists, mainly in the northern city of Aleppo. Those groups receive their logistic, finance, military equipment, medical treatment, medicine, hospitalisation, free access to the country and intelligence information from their sponsors in the Middle East: all via Turkey.

In fact, many of the rebel groups responded to Ankara' call to attack ISIS and Kurds-controlled land in the north of Syria, and they pulled out from around Aleppo to join the Turkish Army. Others expressed the "useless objective to continue fighting in Aleppo". Groups like Nureddine Zinki, Faylaq al-Sham, Firqat Hamza, Sultan Murad and Istaqem kama Umert, all left the Aleppo front and rejected the union with (ex) Nusra, along with one of the biggest northern rebel Islamic groups, Ahrar al-Sham, whose leadership is divided on this particular topic. These groups spat out their promise given to (ex) Nusra to form one group if it broke its ties with Qaidat al-Jihad in Khorasan, which Nusra did at the end but, indeed, without obtaining the promised unity and desired merging.
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Turkey agreed to avoid any contact or clash with the Syrian army, mainly around Aleppo, in support of the Syrian rebels and jihadists. This is leaving (ex) Nusra almost alone with minor groups around Aleppo, Ramouseh and the academies, offering a perfect target to the Russian Air Force, and the US, if willing to act in partnership, since jihadists are left alone on that front.
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Moscow informed Damascus of the Turkish plan, despite denial and contested positions through its Foreign Ministry expressed overtly against the intervention o the Turkish forces on its soil. Turkey was officially using its right to "go after the PKK Kurds according to the 1999 Adana agreement with Damascus". Moreover, Turkey was chasing ISIS from the north of Syria, an area that neither Damascus nor its close allies on the ground were willing to engage at any time in the future. Russia is aware that the Syrian Army, Iran proxies (Afghan, Pakistani and Iraqi) and Hezbollah have no intention of pushing their forces toward Jarablus, al-Bab or even Raqqa itself, ISIS's stronghold.

Russia made it clear to Turkey that it will not tolerate any infringement of the agreement or any clash with the Syrian Army drawing clear redlines, and threatening that its Air Force will hit the Turkish forces and its proxies in case of any similar violation.

Russia has advised Syria to avoid any official objection and condemnation deposited at the United Nations Security Council related to the presence of Turkish troops on its soil. Turkey is protecting its national interest, preventing the partition of Syria, a possible domestic Kurdish uprising and a Rojava state on its border, and eliminating a future permanent foothold of US forces in Syria.

Moscow told Damascus "Turkey is willing to cut the Kurds' toenails, they who believed the US is carrying a magic wand and could offer them a state in Syria without any objection or reactions. The YPG have no previous experience with American forces that can abandon them when US interests with Turkey prevails, despite hundreds of Kurds being killed on the battlefield against ISIS".

The first point imposed on Turkey was a threshold in terms of forces deployed by the Turkish army in Syria, which is not to exceed 8,000 soldiers (two mechanized brigades, an artillery regiment, a battalion of special forces, a squadron of F-16, and a mixed one formed from helicopters, amphibious assault and transport vehicles).

The second agreed point was the area in Syria where the Turkish military may move to eliminate Islamic State fighters. This is a strip between the cities of Quarah Koubri and Jarablus (90 km) with a depth of 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border. At the same time, Turkey has committed to not allow rebel FSA (Free Syrian Army) militants to act in this strip independently, without orders from Turkish army units.

Although the Syrian army intervened in defense of Kurdish YPG fighters surrounded by Islamist rebels in the Sheikh Maqsoud district of Aleppo on August 21st, 2016, the YPG attacked the Syrian army in the city of al-Hasakah, conquering it. Therefore, also included in the second set of points is that the Turkish army has permission from the Syrian government to evacuate from the eastern bank of the Euphrates (even in battle) Kurdish rebels (YPG) who conquered the city of Manbij from the Islamic State with the help of US special forces. Russian S-400 missile systems will not bring down Turkish aircraft flying beyond the 90x30 km strip if they are acting against PKK terrorists.

The third point agreed upon means the withdrawal of most rebel groups controlled by the Turkish intelligence services in the battle zones around the city of Aleppo and in the Latakia governate. This maneuver will help the Syrian army achieve final victory in the battle for Aleppo.

Turkey pledges that when the offensive of Iranian volunteers and Syrian army to encircle and liquidate the Islamic State starts, then the Turks will execute a maneuver of forces and means together with the Syrian army. No matter what actions the Kurds will take against the Islamic State, Turkey will create a safety cordon along the Syrian-Turkish border to prevent the dispersal of Islamic State fighters to other countries.

Comment: Immediately following Turkey's incursion into Syria, the situation was murky. It seems to have cleared a bit since then, whether as a result of subsequent talks and negotiations, or simply the original plans coming to light. The original statement of US air support for the operation appears to have fallen through:

The US-led coalition did not provide previously-agreed air support to Turkish forces and Free Syrian Army rebels when they were attacked by Islamic State militants outside the city of Jarablus in northern Syria, losing several troops wounded in action. A Free Syrian Army (FSA) unit and Turkish troops came under heavy machine gun fire from Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) in a village located nearby Jarablus on Tuesday evening, Anadolu news agency reported on Wednesday.

Taking heavy enemy fire, Turkish air forward observers requested immediate support from the NATO airbase at Incirlik, from which the US-led coalition's aircraft operate. The agency's report also said that some US aircraft were already airborne for a regular patrolling mission. However, the US command was reluctant to provide air cover and reportedly delayed scrambling jets for about an hour, making excuses, though such scenarios were previously agreed between the US and Turkish militaries, according to Anadolu.

In the meantime, a Turkish tank which supported advancing rebels was hit by a rocket fired by Islamists, wounding three soldiers, an FSA source told the news agency. "We could have lost many people," the source said. "The Americans had promised to provide air support in case of an emergency, but they did not. They should have helped; however, the air intervention came in late because of them."

Consequently, the Turkish Air Force scrambled its own aircraft which arrived "last minute" and hit IS targets, the source added. US-led coalition jets came in and bombed the area three hours later, and the airstrike was useless, Anadolu said.

Naturally, the U.S. denies this. US Air Forces Central Command spokeswoman Kiley Dougherty told Sputnik: "Turkish forces requested air support from Coalition assets after a hostile vehicle attacked a Turkish tank in Jarabulus, Syria Tuesday evening. Coalition air support coordinated with the Turkish Air Force and Coalition ground forces to identify and destroy the vehicle."

Not only that, according to Hurriyet, the operation was launched without consulting with the U.S. They has been aware of plans for such an operation since June 2015, but rejected them at the time, not believing the plan was "feasible". The plan was put on the shelf after Russia entered the scene and the jet shoot-down shot down relations with Russia:

Washington seems to have warmed up to the initiative in recent months, but the US wanted to remove Kurdish forces from the conflict area. The White House was ready to conduct a high-level meeting on the possible operation on August 24, the Wall Street Journal reported, but by that time Turkey had already launched the ground offensive. "Ankara pulled the trigger on the mission unilaterally, without giving officials in Washington advance warning," the newspaper noted, adding that Turkey conducted its first airstrikes against targets in Syria alone. The US decided to provide air cover to the Turkish forces only after it understood that Operation Euphrates Shield was underway.

The media outlet described what happened as a "breakdown in coordination" that the US chose to keep under wraps. Early on August 24, the Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim issued a statement saying that Turkey launched an operation to free the Syrian city of Jarablus that involved "the Turkish Armed Forces and the International Coalition Air Forces," referring to the US warplanes. Hours later an unnamed US official told Reuters that the US Air Force would provide air cover for Operation Euphrates Shield, adding that Washington was "in synch" with Ankara's initiative. Apparently, this is not how it went down. "Behind the scenes, cooperation between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners broke down at senior levels," the WSJ reported, citing unnamed officials from the US and Turkey. "The two countries weren't as aligned on the operation as their public statements indicated."

As a result, Turkey's operation undermined Washington's "behind-the-scenes" efforts to remove the Syrian Kurds from regions west of the Euphrates, something that Ankara has always seen as a red line. Since Washington failed to accomplish this task on time, Turkey's decision to go ahead with the operation also "created a prickly, new challenge for the US" as fighting erupted between its two regional allies that were supposed to focus on tackling Daesh.

Coincidentally, and possibly as a result of these maneuvers, there are reports that the U.S. and Russia are finally closer to an agreement on Aleppo. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Tasnim news agency: "We are, I hope, a few steps from an agreement on the special situation around Aleppo. Our military officials will meet again within few hours to reach a final deal. We haven't reached it yet." Svobodnaya Pressa asserts that the Turkish operation may play a "major role" in this process:

The new deal will most likely involve both sides sponsoring a ceasefire in Aleppo and introducing a mechanism to uphold it, but it will not see armed rebel groups put down their weapons or Moscow and Washington conduct joint airstrikes on the city, the media outlet noted.

Turkey's ground offensive that was launched on August 24 was "apparently coordinated" with Moscow, Damascus and Tehran, the media outlet said, offering possible conditions of the agreement if it was made. They involve Ankara saying yes to Assad remaining in power, making every effort to prevent the Kurds from carving an independent state out of northern Syria and withdrawing its support from Jaysh al-Fath, also known as the Army of Conquest. The latter is a jihadist coalition, comprising Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly called al-Nusra Front), Jabhat Ansar al-Din, Jaysh al-Sunna, etc.

In addition, "thirteen rebel factions of Fatah Halab, a group that has been fighting against government forces in Idlib and Aleppo, were redeployed through the Turkish territory to northern Syria prior to Ankara's operation," Svobodnaya Pressa said. "Along with the Turkish military they are currently fighting against Daesh and the Syrian Democratic Forces made of Kurdish and Arab fighters." Fatah Halab comprises Faylaq al-Sham, Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Sultan Murad, Jabhat al-Shamiya, 13th Division, Suqor al-Jebel, Jaish al-Tahrir, Hamza Division, Jaish al-Nasr, Mutassim Brigade, Ahrar Tel Rifaat, Liwa al-Fate and to an extent Ahrar al-Sham, an organization that Russia considers to be a terrorist group.

"There is only one way to resolve the Fatah Halab issue - by adding the group to the list of organizations covered by the ceasefire," Svobodnaya Pressa said. "The group has already published a statement agreeing to deliver humanitarian aid to Aleppo through the Ramouseh suburb and the Castello Road." Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham could also be added to the list of groups covered by the ceasefire regime that Russia and the US brokered in early 2016, Svobodnaya Pressa said. "If leaders of these groups come to an agreement, then the plan under which al-Nusra Front opted for a rebranding will work. The organization will dissolve in the new structure that will join the ceasefire. This new group will most likely be led by Ahrar al-Sham," the media outlet noted.

If these assertions are correct, the new agreement between Russia and the US will not "cleanse" Aleppo of armed opposition, but it will still be able to enforce a ceasefire regime in the city. Some rebel fighters will then join those fighting against Daesh in northern Syria. There are certain doubts that either Russia or the US will agree to view al-Nusra Front as a member of legitimate opposition, since both countries consider al-Qaeda's former offshoot in Syria to be a terrorist organization.