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The NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine is reaching its most critical moment thus far as Kiev prepares to commence its counteroffensive, which is backed by that US-led military bloc. A breakthrough by either side could coerce the other into concessions ahead of the Chinese- (and possibly jointly French-)mediated ceasefire talks that are expected to begin by the end of the year. Likewise, a continued stalemate would probably result in freezing the existing months-long Line of Contact (LOC).
Here are ten critical observations of everything from the West's and Russia's perspectives respectively:
1. NATO Acknowledges Its "Race Of Logistics"/"War Of Attrition" With Russia
Secretary-General Stoltenberg admitted in mid-February that his entire bloc is struggling to keep pace with Russia in terms of military-industrial production, which he warned could lead to political fatigue over member states' involvement in this conflict if there isn't a decisive resolution in favor of Kiev.
2. The Washington Post Revealed Kiev's Logistical & Personnel Problems
The NATO chief's admission set the stage for correcting the Western public's perception about their side's chances of victory, which the Washington Post informed them isn't as sure of a bet as some might have earlier thought after their report in mid-March revealed Kiev's logistical and personnel problems.
3. Poland's Chief Of Army Staff Confirmed The Above Assessments Two Weeks Ago
Many were caught off guard by Polish Chief of Army Staff Rajmund Andrzejczak confirming the "politically inconvenient" assessments that were earlier shared by Stoltenberg and the Washington Post, which thus extended credence to them and should have convinced folks to finally take them seriously.
4. Poland's Deputy Prime Minister Said That Half Of Europe Wants Peace With Russia
Reinforcing the notion that Kiev's upcoming NATO-backed counteroffensive is Ukraine's last shot at reconquering its lost territory, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Piotr Glinski said earlier this month that half of Europe wants peace with Russia, so it's possible that they'll push for this by the end of the year.
5. Some Of Kiev's Supporters Are Already Concocting "Stab-In-The-Back" Conspiracy Theories
Garry Kasparov melted down on Twitter less than two weeks back after realizing that there's a chance that Kiev might not achieve its maximalist objectives, which led to him channeling many of its supporters' fears by concocting a "stab-in-the-back" conspiracy theory to explain this if it happens.
6. "5D Chess" & "Doom-And-Gloom" Narratives Manipulate Perceptions
The perceptions of Russians and their supporters' are being manipulated by the polar opposite "5D chess" and "doom-and-gloom" narratives that can be paraphrased as "everything is going according to plan" and "abandon all hope", both of which result in radically inaccurate assessments of the conflict.
7. The Defense Ministry-Wagner Group Rivalry Poses A Threat To Russia's National Security
The increasingly fierce competition between these two patriotic forces risks undermining the special operation and thus endangering Russia's national security irrespective of whether it's contained to the realm of morale or also allegedly involves its military logistics like Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims.
8. Recent Reports Suggest That Russia Is Struggling To Defend The LOC
From occasional terrorist raids into Ukrainian-bordering regions from pre-2014 Russia like Bryansk to Friday's tactical pullback north of Artyomovsk and Saturday's downing of several military aircraft over that aforementioned indisputably Russian region, defending the LOC will likely be a very difficult task.
9. Neither Kiev Nor NATO Cares About Russia's "Red Lines" After Crossing Them All Thus Far
Kiev and NATO have already crossed Russia's red lines regarding the transfer of cutting-edge arms to the conflict zone, carrying out terrorism within its pre-2014 borders, bombing the Crimean Bridge, seizing parts of post-referendum Kherson Region, and bombing the Kremlin, so no one knows what'll come next.
10. Russia Still Appears Averse To Leading The Climb Up The Escalation Ladder
Apart from initiating the special operation to preempt NATO-backed Kiev's imminent reconquest of Donbass and the resultant cascade of national security threats afterwards, Russia has only responded to developments instead of shaped them, thus inexplicably keeping itself on the strategic defensive.
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These ten critical observations will now be summarized as they relate to each side.
Logistical problems and political fatigue in Europe could hamstring Kiev's counteroffensive, while Russia's risks involve the potentially destabilizing consequences of the Defense Ministry-Wagner Group rivalry continuing, independently existing defensive difficulties along the LOC, and a reluctance to escalate. Each will need to resolve their respective problems while exploiting their opponent's in order to stand a chance at achieving a breakthrough before the end of the year when ceasefire talks will likely begin.
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