Scientists 'surprised' by properties of Omicron variant, says NERVTAG expert

Rachel Russell
Sky News
Mon, 20 Dec 2021 21:41 UTC

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Professor Ravi Gupta tells Sky News that studies have suggested the virus has "kind of altered the way it infects cells".

Scientists have been "surprised" by properties of the Omicron variant as studies suggest coronavirus has "altered the way it infects cells", a professor has said.

Professor Ravi Gupta, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), said experts were learning about the virus "all the time".

He warned the increase in deaths and cases of Omicron was a "serious concern".

Confirmed cases of the Omicron strain have risen by more than 12,000 in the UK - with London's cases alone topping 10,000 - according to the latest data on Sunday.

Prof Gupta told Sky News: "The sheer numbers that are going to be affected because of the increased transmissibility of this virus is going to potentially overwhelm our health service. So that's a really critical situation that we're facing."

He added: "Even if the vaccines protect us to a significant degree, then the increased transmissibility and penetration of the virus into communities that we're seeing already is putting a large amount of pressure (on the NHS) because a very small fraction of a very large number still translates to significant numbers being hospitalised."

Prof Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the Cambridge Institute for Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Diseases, said Omicron has properties that have "surprised" scientists to some degree.

He said: "Some experiments that have been done in different groups are suggesting that the virus has kind of altered the way it infects cells.

"This is again potentially due to some mutations that have occurred, and there may, and this is a big caveat, there may be a slightly different profile for this virus [compared to Delta].

"Nonetheless, even if it were a little bit milder, in a very broad sense, the sheer numbers of cases would still translate into some individuals becoming quite sick.

Comment: Well, that's a walkback from 'hospitals being overwhelmed'.

"We're not anticipating that this virus, because of these changes, is going to suddenly become harmless. I think that shouldn't be the interpretation of the work that we and others are doing.

"But what we are saying is that we are learning about the virus all the time."

Prof Gupta said he is "in the middle viewpoint" about whether the government should take tougher measures to tackle the rising case numbers of the variant.

He said: "My personal viewpoint is that I'm in the middle of the two sort of views on this. I think the restrictions we've had were important.

"I think we could go further, but I'm not necessarily saying that a full lockdown is the essential policy decision, but, of course, I'm not the policy-maker and all I do is scientific research and advise accordingly."

In Britain, 12 people infected with Omicron have died, while 104 people with the variant are in hospital, according to latest figures from the UK Health Security Agency.

Earlier, Dominic Raab said he cannot make "hard, fast guarantees" that more restrictions won't be imposed in the run-up to Christmas.

However, the deputy prime minister said he believes Britons will have a "much better Christmas than last year".

Comment: Omicron is behaving exactly the way a virus would. It's altering its infectious tactics to try to evade vaccines and immune systems AND at the same time, becoming less dangerous. Virii tend to come to equilibrium with their hosts. Did Sky News edit its story for maximum fear porn?

Two days earlier The Telegraph reported this from Gupta:

Omicron may be less efficient at replicating in the lungs than previous Covid variants, according to hopeful new UK laboratory research.

A study conducted by scientists at the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease suggested that mutations on the virus' spike protein, which make it able to evade antibodies, may also reduce its ability to attack the lungs and cause severe disease.

"We demonstrate significantly lower infectivity of lung organoids and Calu-3 lung cells," said the Cambridge preprint, which was posted late on Friday night.

"These observations highlight that omicron has gained immune evasion properties whilst compromising on properties associated with replication and pathogenicity [harm]."

The study was led by Professor Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge and a contributor to Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

Prof Gupta said the findings could point to omicron causing less severe disease, but he cautioned that more work was needed.

"In summary, this work suggests that omicron does appear to have become more immune evasive, but that properties associated with disease progression *may* be attenuated [weakened] to some extent", he said.

A leading hospital group reported last week that 29 per cent fewer adults were being hospitalised than in the delta wave, and far fewer of those required intensive care.

On the other hand, there was a 20 per cent jump in the number of children being hospitalised and a double dose of Pfizer vaccine was shown to be just 70 per cent effective at preventing hospitalisation, falling further in the old.

Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, warned against "over interpretation" of the South African data last week, noting its population was much younger and with more prior exposure to Covid than our own.

"I want to put a really serious caution on this because I think [the South African data] has been overinterpreted.

"The amount of immunity for this wave because of prior delta wave and vaccination is far higher than it was for their last wave and, therefore, the fact they have a lower hospitalisation rate this time is unsurprising.

"That doesn't mean there is some degree of milder disease — that is possible — but I think there is a danger that people have overinterpreted this to say this is not a problem and there's nothing to worry about. I want to be clear, I am afraid this is going to be a problem."

A study published by Imperial College London on Saturday found no evidence in the early British numbers to suggest that omicron was intrinsically milder than previous variants.

The research, based on UK infection data, warned the NHS could still see a peak of hospital admissions that exceeded those seen in the first and second waves.