Risk of Afghan instability 'overflowing' across region, Russian FM says, as Taliban insurgents gain ground following US withdrawal

RT
Fri, 16 Jul 2021 11:57 UTC

© REUTERS/Abdul Khaliq Achakzai

People on vehicles, holding Taliban flags, gather near the Friendship Gate crossing point in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border July 14, 2021.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned that intense fighting in Afghanistan risks destabilizing neighboring nations in Central Asia, as American troops pull out of the country and the Taliban take yet more territory.

Addressing a regional security conference on Friday, Moscow's top diplomat said that "the uncertainty of the development of the military-political situation in this country and around it has increased."

"Unfortunately, in recent days we have witnessed a rapid degradation of the situation in Afghanistan ... It is obvious that in the current conditions there are real risks of an overflow of instability to neighboring states, the threat of such a scenario is a serious obstacle to the involvement of Afghanistan in regional cooperation," he added.

In recent days, several groups of Afghan soldiers loyal to the embattled government in Kabul have sought shelter in neighboring Tajikistan, fleeing attacks from the Taliban. The foreign servicemen were allowed to enter "in line with the principles of humanity and good neighborliness," Tajik officials said at the time. US President Joe Biden has announced that all US forces, which previously operated alongside the units, will leave the country by the anniversary of the 2001 September 11 attacks this year.

Last week, General Colonel Anatoly Sidorov, the Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for the Moscow-based Collective Security Treaty Organization's (CSTO) mutual defense pact, said that the Taliban would not be allowed to run riot in the region.

"We've seen the Taliban's outposts. At least for now, we see no aggression coming from [them]," Sidorov said. "We have to expect small raids by groups of 20, 40, maybe, 70 people. Of course, they will be met with an adequate response from Tajikistan."

Russia has pledged its support for Kyrgyzstan's security, while simultaneously hosting peace talks with the Taliban in an effort to secure a ceasefire settlement in Afghanistan. Earlier this month, a contingent of the Islamist militants' political representatives met with officials in Moscow to discuss the future of the country.

Comment: It's notable that Sidorov of the CSTO states that there's no signs of aggression on the Taliban side, because Pepe Escobar recently reported similarly, that the current Kabul administration is mistrusted by a great many and that the Taliban hasn't taken areas by force, they were welcomed:

Mohammad Suhail Shaheen is the quite articulate spokesman for the Taliban political office. He's adamant that "taking Afghanistan by military force is not our policy. Our policy is to find a political solution to the Afghan issue, which is continuing in Doha." Bottom line: "We confirmed our commitment to a political solution here in Moscow once more."

That's absolutely correct. The Taliban don't want a bloodbath. They want to be embraced. As Shaheen has stressed, it would be easy to conquer major cities - but there would be blood. Meanwhile, the Taliban already control virtually the whole border with Tajikistan.

The 2021 Taliban have little in common with their 2001 pre-war on terror incarnation. The movement has evolved from a largely Ghilzai Pashtun rural guerrilla insurgency to a more inter-ethnic arrangement, incorporating Tajiks, Uzbeks and even Shi'ite Hazaras - a group that was mercilessly persecuted during the 1996-2001 years of Taliban power.

[...]

Shaheen points out that "it's not possible to take 150 districts in just six weeks by fighting," which connects to the fact that the security forces "do not trust the Kabul administration." In all districts that have been conquered, he swears, " the forces came to the Taliban voluntarily."

See also:

• The US' haphazard withdrawal from Bagram Air Base shows it never had any clear plan in Afghanistan
• UK & allies "reserve the right" to launch NEW military action in Afghanistan
• Biden's cabinet will push US into more 'forever wars' - Analysts