FiveThirtyEight pollster Nate Silver
© ABC NewsFiveThirtyEight pollster Nate Silver
Last week, pollster Nate Silver was so confident in a Biden win that he suggested the only way Trump is reelected would be through a 'major polling error' or cheating.


This weekend, however, Silver shoehorned a giant caveat into weeks of confidently proclaiming a Biden win: Pennsylvania.
"Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It's 5 points," Silver told ABC's "This Week" (sporting a new 'battle beard') adding that if Trump were to win, "it would come down to Pennsylvania."
Silver then sets the expectation for an unfair vote, saying "Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There's lots of stuff going on."

And then, Silver says that if Biden doesn't win PA, he'll become the underdog.

"Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn't quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. ... But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog."



About that...

On Sunday, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorsed President Trump - its first GOP endorsement in nearly 50 years.



Meanwhile, Trump drew massive crowds across Pennsylvania, including Butler County where tens of thousands of supporters turned out in what the Epoch Times described as "a scene more reminiscent of a rock concert than a political event."
trump rally butler
© Mandel Ngan / AFPUS President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at Pittsburgh-Butler Regional Airport in Butler, Pennsylvania on October 31, 2020.
Reacting to the crowds, PA Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) said: "Donald Trump is doing things that have never been done in Pennsylvania politics in terms of the raw barnstorming across small county Pennsylvania," adding "It's hard to predict with certainty how that's going to activate not only his base of voters from 2016, but also those that sat it out, too."
Fetterman then sounded the alarm to fellow Democrats who are pinning their hopes on Democratic nominee Joe Biden winning the Keystone State. Pennsylvania and its 20 Electoral College votes would provide a significant boost toward winning the 270 needed to win the White House.

"I'm not saying Donald Trump is going to win Pennsylvania, but what I am saying is he's doing everything that he can to maximize his chances," he said. -Epoch Times

Silver has given Trump a 10% chance of winning, down from the 28.6% chance he gave Trump vs. Clinton in 2016.
nate silver poll trump biden
© FiveThirtyEight
vs.
nate silver poll trump clinton 2016
© FiveThirtyEight
And here's Nate's giant hedge:
nate silver trump win hedge 2020
© FiveThirtyEight