Jobless claims spike to 898,000 in latest sign of economic weakness; Trump signals he's ready to 'go big'

Niv Elis
The Hill
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 08:48 UTC

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Fragmentation of wealth: A mosaic of instability

Initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 10 spiked to 898,000, the latest sign of weakness in the U.S. labor market.

The figure was up 53,000 from the previous week, and the number of claims has remained persistently high over the past few months.

Thursday's report from the Labor Department showed that the total number of people claiming benefits across a slew of programs in late September fell by 215,270, to 25.3 million.

The weak economic figures pose a challenge to President Trump in the final weeks of the campaign, particularly as many economists say they are the result of a pandemic that the U.S. has yet to get under control.

When factoring in an additional 373,000 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a CARES Act program that expanded benefits to gig economy workers and the self-employed, the total number of new claims approached 1.3 million. Glassdoor Chief Economist Andrew Chamberlain said the latest figures

"cast a dark cloud over the nation's slow economic recovery. America is unlikely to see a full recovery and a return to low unemployment until the pace of weekly UI [unemployment insurance] claims dials back significantly. As the virus remains in the driver's seat, today's elevated claims cast a shadow over the fate of the U.S. labor market in the next half year."

The latest data comes as the White House continues wrangling with Democrats over a fifth COVID-19 relief bill. Trump says he's ready to "go big" and insisted on Twitter that "Republicans are ready to go" despite steep opposition to a high relief bill price tag from the Senate GOP.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has insisted that the White House's latest $1.8 trillion offer remains inadequate over policy details such as a national testing program.

The bitter disagreements between the sides have allowed crucial programs, including additional weekly benefits to the unemployed, to expire in July.

"The already dire situation will only worsen unless leaders in Washington can cut through the election year fog and deal with unemployment legislation in the coming months," said Andrew Stettner, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation.

Without the extra benefits, he noted, most claimants would only receive around $200-$300 a week, though the amount varies significantly by state.

Comment: A forecast on the pandemic hole in the global economy:

This year's output figures will be reminiscent of the 1930's Great Depression, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It said that the world is at risk of significantly lowered investment, trade and job numbers.

The IMF's economic expert, Gita Gopinath, said this week that "the cumulative loss in output relative to the pre-pandemic projected path is projected to grow from $11 trillion over 2020-21 to $28 trillion over 2020-25...this represents a severe setback to the improvement in average living standards across all country groups."

The IMF praised central banks around the globe for stimulus plans that softened the impact that Covid-19 has had on the world economy, and warned that an early removal of these support packages could prove disastrous for recovery efforts. Gopinath advised that:

"The considerable global fiscal support of close to $12 trillion and the extensive rate cuts, liquidity injections and asset purchases by central banks helped save lives and livelihoods and prevented a financial catastrophe, to the extent possible, policies must aggressively focus on limiting persistent economic damage from this crisis. Most economies will experience lasting damage to supply potential, reflecting scars from the deep recession this year."

The World Bank has warned that up to 150 million more people may be pushed into extreme poverty by 2021.