© UnknownUS President Donald Trump
President Donald Trump is poised to sign a deal with China on Wednesday
that leaves significant tariffs in place and for the first time would
punish Beijing if it fails to deliver on pledges related to its currency, intellectual property and the trade balance.But the question set to dog Trump the moment the ink dries
is whether the pact will rewire the relationship between the world's biggest economies. For many in Washington, U.S.-China economic ties have become an example of the evils of globalization, the tensions of 21st century technology and geopolitics, and the missteps of past presidents.
The "phase one" deal that Trump recently called a "big, beautiful monster" is by no means a standard trade agreement: At 86 pages, it's thinner than most on substance and commitments. The U.S. agreed to halve 15% duties on $120 billion of imports and delay others in return for Chinese promises to make structural reforms and purchase an additional $200 billion in American goods and services over the next two years. The full text will be released Wednesday.
Still,
it avoids major issues at the heart of China's model of state capitalism, such as restraining industrial subsidies and state-owned companies, to future phases. Punitive tariffs are expected to
remain on almost two-thirds of U.S. imports from China -- some $360 billion in goods -- until at least November's election:
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Tuesday the U.S. would only consider more tariff relief if China signs a phase-two trade deal.
"This is an enormous achievement for the president and the economic team," Mnuchin told reporters in Washington, adding that no firm date was set for phase-two trade talks to begin. Vice Premier Liu He, China's top trade negotiator and President Xi Jinping's main economic adviser, will be leading the Chinese delegation at the signing ceremony.
Different By DesignThe deal also embraces a level of Socialist-style central planning that would have made past American presidents wince.While trade pacts traditionally set the rules and leave the details of actual commerce to markets, the one that Trump's team has negotiated
includes a classified annex that details the $200 billion Chinese buying spree. That includes some
$32 billion in additional purchases of American farm exports and $50 billion in natural gas and crude oil, according to people briefed on its contents.
The administration insists
the different nature of the deal is by design and that it won't need the approval of Congress. "This is not a free trade agreement," it told supporters in a memo last month.
"Its purpose is to rectify unfair trade practices."Still, its failure to address issues like industrial subsidies prompted some China experts to insist the deal falls short of Trump's promises and raise questions over whether the economic pain it has yielded in some sectors of the U.S. economy was worth it.
"I'm prepared to be disappointed by underwhelming details, but I'd love to be surprised with previously unreported major Chinese concessions that would make this long and windy trade conflict feel worth it," said Scott Kennedy, an expert on U.S.-China economic relations at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Supporters of the president and former aides argue Trump has been able to accomplish many of the goals he set when he began to push China to embrace a new round of economic reforms in 2017.
Victory for Trump, Xi?"It's a major victory for the president," said Stephen Vaughn, who until last year helped oversee Trump's trade policies as the general counsel and right-hand man to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
"He has gotten China to make stronger commitments than it has made in previous agreements."For Xi, the deal stops the bleeding on a nearly two-year trade war at a time
when he's facing an economy growing at the slowest pace in three decades and unprecedented protests in Hong Kong. He struck an optimistic tone at the start of 2020, touting "extraordinary Chinese splendor and Chinese strength."
"In the face of severe and complex domestic and foreign situations and various risks and challenges, we have been able to move forward firmly," Xi told party leaders last week.
But a host of complications remain. The U.S. and China are poised for heightened confrontation on industrial policies, geopolitical hot spots like Taiwan and the South China Sea, and Beijing's detention camps for ethnic Uighur Muslims in China's far western region of Xinjiang --
all areas that Xi's critics say could've been handled better.The most likely immediate flash point is the future of 5G and the fate of Huawei Technologies Co., China's flagship tech company. The Trump administration is considering steps to further limit the ability of U.S. companies to supply Huawei, in addition to pressuring countries around the world to avoid using its equipment for 5G mobile networks.
Trump EconomyTrump, meanwhile, is marching defiantly into an election year despite his impeachment by focusing on an economy that is continuing to grow robustly, albeit at a slower pace.
A majority of Americans - 51% - for the first time credited Trump for having either "strongly" or "somewhat" helped the U.S. economy, according to results of a survey released last week by the
Financial Times and the Peter G Peterson Foundation.
That represents a seven-point jump from the same survey conducted in November, ahead of the Dec. 13 announcement of a finalized trade deal. The survey also showed
voters were attuned to the trade war, with more than three-quarters of Americans saying it had a "very strong" or "somewhat strong" impact on the economy.The president has also used the deal as a cudgel to attack Democratic rivals, frequently arguing that the Chinese got the better of former President Barack Obama when leading Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden served as his vice president. During the same campaign rally last week in Toledo at which he hailed his "beautiful monster", Trump mocked South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg as unable to confront China.
"Can you believe Mayor Pete? This is going to be the President of the United States? How would he be against negotiating against President Xi of China?" Trump said. "And we just made one hell of a deal."
Cui bono? The bankers… (so I guess those warnings about Trump have Wilbur Ross as Sec of Commerce were right—everyone said he was a Rothschild agent)
Comments from Zerohedge
* So, they buy our food, and we buy their BAD DEBTS. That's quite the Art of the Deal
*Financial Services- Biggest winners. Wall Street.
China shall allow U.S. financial services suppliers to apply for asset management company licenses that would permit them to acquire non-performing loans directly from Chinese banks So, China is going to sell bad debt to US financial companies... good luck collecting in Chinese courts. You know why 2008 GFC happened? Companies selling bad debt rated as AAAAA investments. I could go on, but why bother. It's not even a trade deal. The Trump Admin has priorly stated that it does not need to be ratified in The Senate. Trump calling it a "trade deal" is like calling a "pedestrian fence" a "wall".
* It is not even about votes, since Trump knows his master are going to give him another 4 anyhow…it is about deception…our manufacturing was supposed to be brought back, instead they make a deal that does nothing to address that and gives billions to the corporations that moved their companies to China, and does nothing for the small business owner or farmer… Ah how easily the goyim are fooled…Trump was going to bring our manufacturing jobs back, right But instead he gives us a deal that lets China keep them there, and the goyim are cheering for it, as they get F'k once again…
* China shall allow U.S. financial services suppliers to apply for asset management company licenses that would permit them to acquire non-performing loans directly from Chinese banks, beginning with provincial licenses. When additional national licenses are granted, China shall treat U.S. financial services suppliers on a non-discriminatory basis with Chinese suppliers, including with respect to the granting of such licenses. Hahaha ... now that's fucking solid gold; Translation; the US Federal Reserve now has the ability to bail out Chinese banks; via the usual proxies.
*So it always has and always will be about American financial services in China. Can't wait to bailout those banks that get Rehypothecated in China. Shocked, shocked I tells ya.
* The most significant changes are those to the banking sector. China is now going to allow western banks free reign, allow the acquisition of more debt to pump into the derivatives market, and US ratings firms will be solely responsible for rating those bonds. It's the appearance of an agreement to help the farmers but in reality it's an agreement to allow western banks more access to China.
Financial Services: Banks, insurers and credit rating companies have tried for years to gain more access to the Chinese market. (as if they needed any help blowing up their banking system. can't wait till the US taxpayer has to bail out US banks when that happens.)
* CHINA TO ALLOW U.S. INVESTORS TO BUY NON-PERFORMING LOANS" Even more access to high risk gambling for wall street. Another outlet for the Repo bailout money to drain into.
* phase 1: banks buy a bunch of bad debt from china, sell it off to investors and when you have to mark down what's left in your inventory, the US taxpayer writes you a huge check. sound familiar anyone?
* China buys our natural resources and the US buys China's manufactured goods, win win for China.
* So where's the VALUE ADDED. How will any of this result in manufacturing jobs coming home to America? Answers ... please ....
The value is going to wall street and Chinese bankers. No job's coming back to the US. US gets screwed again
* An absolute fraud. The dumb slave will suffer as they watch the nfl games and eat hot dogs. FUCK, americans are stupid.
* Let me summarize the enforcement mechanism for you: In a dispute, either party may cancel the contract. I kid you not. Wait till a lawyer reads this. (what Greg Mannarino said about unenforceable)
*I'd like to point out that after this "trade deal" with China, they'll actually be buying 8 billion dollars less in agricultural goods than they were before. It almost feels as if Trump purposefully put small farmers out in the shit-house while handing subsidy payments to the huge agriculture businesses while giving basically nothing to small farmers, forcing them to go bankrupt. But then, 2 years later, Trump comes back (after allowing huge agri-business to gobble up the small business farmer) with a trade deal that is about the same as it was before..
*I wonder how much of those agricultural purchases are for gmo crops from Monsanto... It will all go to Big Ag, you can bet on that, and Big Ag will use that extra income to continue to put the small farmer out of business,
* Hahahahahaha winning much lol. Dumb trumptards, no gains for you, no binding agreement, nothing, just bs for pre election time China will “strive”