© NASA/ WMAP Science TeamโDiagram of the Lagrange points associated with the Sun-Earth system.
Let's consider the following scenario - the Earth is at risk for a disruptive event. This event has, conservatively, about a 0.2% chance of happening on any given year. But that is the most conservative estimate, at the high end it could be more like
12% over the next decade. Either way the chance of this type of event happening in the 21st century is quite high, and
no matter what it is inevitable.The result will likely be taking out power grids, possibly world wide in a worst-case scenario. Reasonable recovery will take about a year, with full recovery taking about a decade. Just imagine what would happen if we lost our power grid for a year. No digital banking, no internet, no household power. The most conservative estimate of how much such an event would cost is
$2 trillion dollars, but experts are increasingly leaning toward $20 trillion as being a closer estimate (and this figure will only go up in the future).
So here's my question - what do you think we should spend now to avoid a high probability of civilization collapse over the next century costing tens of trillions of dollars and growing? I am not talking about global warming, or environmental degradation, the death of the bees, an asteroid strike, or massive crop failure.
I am talking about a coronal mass ejection (CME) - a solar storm.A CME is actually the greatest threat to civilization that we face, in terms of probability and effect. In fact I think we are underestimating the chaos that a worst-case scenario would cause. Imagine going without power for a year. I know, there are people around the world who live without power, and the residents of Peurto Rico recently experienced something similar. But if this happened on a global scale, there's no one coming with aid. Global infrastructures on which we all depend would collapse. How many people would starve or freeze? How much wood would be burned to keep warm or cook until the power comes back on? There are so many downstream effects that we cannot anticipate.
The last really powerful CME to hit was in 1859, known as the Carrington Event. This hit when we were right at the dawn of the electrical age. The CME was strong enough to induce a current in telegraph lines, taking them down and causing them to spark, even starting some fires. This was just a taste, however, of what would happen today.
But there have been other large CME events - 1872, 1909, 1921, and 1989. The 1989 one was strong enough to take down Quebec's power grid for a week.
Some of these storms were as strong as the Carrington event, just not optimally aimed at the Earth.So what are we doing about this undeniably dire eventuality? Surprisingly little. What would you spend today to save trillions of dollar sometime this century? I would think it would be worth spending at least tens of billions of dollars, if not hundreds of billions. What can we do?
The ESA is planning with NASA
the Lagrange Mission. They will be sending a satellite to Lagrange 5. The Lagrangian points are locations in the sun-earth system (any two bodies in orbit around each other) where the overlapping gravitational fields are at a minimum. It's like a gravity well, where every direction is essentially up hill. So it takes minimal energy to keep a satellite in this position. L5 is at a point behind the Earth in its orbit around the sun. In this position it would have a preview of the surface of the sun that is about to rotate toward the Earth. So this would be a great early-warning system for a large solar storm.
That's a good start. This would give astronauts time to get into cover, and to lock down some satellites that could be saved if they are powered off. But that is not enough time to save the grid. At best it's enough time to unplug all your devices, turn off computers, and perhaps make a run at the grocery store. But the grid is still going down.
We already know the solution and have a good estimate of the cost. We can harden transformers against a CME, so they won't explode when one hits.
This would cost about $350,000 per circuit, or $10-30 billion for the US. So we are in the range of tens of billions for large countries, and hundreds of billions for the world. Even if it costs the world a trillion dollars, we would likely save 20 trillion or more (plus all the nuisance of civilization collapsing).
We could also invest in spare transformers so that the backbone of the grid could be repaired more quickly. FEMA could also invest in mobile transformers that it could use as a stop-gap while the grid is being repaired.
We need to upgrade our electrical grid anyway, in order to prepare for the energy production of the future. While we're at it, let's take the time to defend ourselves against an inevitable, and actually quite likely on the short term, catastrophe. This one is a no-brainer. It's exactly the kind of thing governments are supposed to do. Right now they are failing. Let's hope they figure this out before the next Carrington-level event.
Reader Comments
It's kinda like you know the issue exists but you refuse to acknowledge that it will happen.
Once we got the project approved and a budget to work with, we placed our order. We had to order it from China, as there were no manufacturing companies that could build these large transformers in the US. It would not surprise me that this lack of manufacturing capability still exists today. Elapsed time from order to delivery, 5 years.
Now in the type of event laid out here being a global issue, how many transformers will be needed worldwide, it will be way north of a few thousand, so how long do you think it will take to replace all of the damaged transformers? Way more than a year and more like decades before we restore the power grid to where it is today. Remember, the grid was not built overnight, it took decades and is still growing.
Now remember that transformer we needed, it is used by irrigation districts supplying water to the farmers. If the farmers have no water, they cannot grow food for society and well do I really need to paint that picture of what will happen to society if we have no food? The loss of the food production will be felt worldwide.
It doesn't take just an EMP to take out the grid. A large wildfire in the wrong place in California could destroy the grid I supported and we would have most of the same issues as the EMP, if our substations are destroyed by the wildfire.
The author is very optimistic in what it will take to make all of the transformers hardened against a CME induced EMP, forget the dollars, how much time will it take, even if we started today does anyone think we can get the job done in a decade? Do we even have the manufacturing capabilities to take this project on? Where are we getting the money? Well we could end these endless wars, that would free up mega dollars to invest in critical infrastructure.
The reality of it is that until such time as our grid is immune to EMPโs, we are at risk of being blasted back to the stone age. The loss of life during the first year will be incalculable, the loss of food, water, and medical care will take its toll and those that are left might not have the skills and abilities to quickly restore all of the needed systems for life as we know it now.
No, unfortunately life as we know it will change forever.
It is and has always been the general population against rich oligarchy. After I finish that fight, I'll look around for other people to blame.
It maybe fiction, but the author has done a fair job of trying to describe what it will be like after a nuke is detonated 3 miles high to create a localized EMP over the North American continent.
A Carrington event will be global. The last time it happened we didn't have an electrical grid, telegraphs yes, so it was a survivable event since we used steam power, water power, or good old horse & buggy to manufacture things and get food & goods distributed, so our infrastructure didn't crumble. We won't be so lucky next time.
Every time some exhorter tells us all their Nostradamus view of how we all are going down with pain, it becomes closer to reality. Not for me, mind you, but for them.
Accept that if the level of extremes this article and the comment sections writings come to fruition, no matter how prepared you are, you are going to suffer and die. Keep dwelling on it, and it will happen. I think there are a great many psychologically challenged people out there that love to fantasize about the end of times. It's like some kind of cosplay for malcontents with C-rations and guns.
And I did read "One Second After". It was in the fiction section of the library.
Even if you dedicated your life to prepping, your survival odds are still low in this type of global event.
That doesn't mean that prepping is wrong or shouldn't be done, for there are many smaller events that can happen in nature that will test societies ability to pull together and survive. Anyone who doesn't prep, has a greater chance of being on that short list of victims.
So what will you be: Survivor or Victim?