© XinhuaChina will probably send only peacekeeping, anti-piracy, and humanitarian relief personnel to the drill, a Chinese analyst says.
Instead of sending a regular naval mission to take part in the trilateral joint exercise, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) might send only its routine anti-piracy fleet, which has been deployed to Somali waters to protect commercial vessels, the analysts said.
Last week, General Ghadir Nezami Pour, head of international affairs and defence diplomacy of Iran's General Staff of the Armed Forces, was quoted by the semi-official Iran Press news agency as saying that China, Russia and Iran were planning a joint naval drill in the Sea of Oman and northern Indian Ocean "soon".
"The exercises have different goals, including the exchange of tactical and military experiences, and sometimes they seek political goals which show a kind of convergence between participants," he was quoted as saying.
On Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang sidestepped questions about the exercise, saying only that the Chinese military had maintained "regular cooperation" with its foreign counterparts.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military analyst, said China would probably send only peacekeeping, anti-piracy and humanitarian relief personnel to the drill to underline its peacekeeping priorities.
"Participation in formal military exercises in the Persian Gulf could turn the waterway into a hotspot, and that may mean trouble for Beijing," Zhou said. "[Beijing wants to avoid this] even though China imports its crude oil from the Middle East through this sea route.
"China has a very clear policy for the Middle East, [and that's] not to get involved in the conflicts between the United States and Iran. Hence, China's only option is to take part in security exercises that are different from the usual military drills."
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping also expected Beijing would send its anti-piracy escort fleet, which has taken part in international operations for over a decade in waters near Somalia.
News about the joint exercise came less than two weeks after the September 14 missile strikes on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities. The US has accused Iran of masterminding the attacks - allegations that Tehran has repeatedly denied.
Niu Zhongjun, an international relations professor at China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing, doubted that Beijing would send the navy to an Iran-led drill at such a sensitive time.
"Iran definitely wants to bring China to its side, but I don't think Beijing will listen to Tehran and upset Washington [for this], even though China and the US are locked in a trade war," Niu said.
But Song said China could turn the crisis into an opportunity by siding with Russia and Iran and by strengthening its commercial fleet escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz near the Gulf of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean.
"Beijing wants to secure China's overseas interests and protecting the waterways of the Persian Gulf is among the future tasks that it has for the PLA Navy," Song said.
"The Chinese escort fleet also needs to extend its reach from the Gulf of Aden to the northern Indian Ocean, as well as the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.
"[These] are not only the most important strategic maritime waterways for Russia and Iran, but important to China's oil lifeline in the Middle East."
More than a fifth of the world's oil supplies is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, helping China connect to crucial Gulf producers like Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
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