deescalation zones syria
Four months after Syria and Russia agreed to call off its joint attack on HTS/al-Qaeda-held Idlib province, opting amidst US threats to cut a ceasefire deal mediated with Turkey, Moscow now says Ankara has failed to live up to its end of the bargain, which included agreeing to clear Idlib of terrorists and extremist groups. This means a joint Syrian Army-Russia assault on Idlib could again be on the horizon, which was a major source of tension and threats with the United States previously in September.

The collapse of the prior 'deescalation' agreement comes at a time when the White House has vowed to stick to the planned US pullout, however, this could be yet a another major development to complicate or delay any possible withdrawal timeline. FT described current Turkish-Russian talks in Moscow as follows:
Russia has accused Turkey of failing to live up to a promise to clear Syria's Idlib of extremist militant groups and admitted that a landmark ceasefire agreement made last September had failed. Ahead of crunch talks between the leaders of the two countries in Moscow on Wednesday, Russia's foreign ministry said the Islamist extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had "full control" of Syria's last remaining major opposition stronghold. The damning assessment came four months after Moscow agreed to postpone a planned military assault on the city in exchange for a promise from Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to clear it of militants.
HTS is of course the rebranded coalition dominated by former Nusra Front militants, which is Syrian al-Qaeda. Russia has called the situation "rapidly deteriorating" and this week pointed to growing numbers of ceasefire violations and incidents and threats against Russia's Hmeimim airbase in Syria. Russia's Foreign Ministry cited that "65 people have been killed and more than 200 injured in more than 1,000 recorded breaches of the agreement," according to FT. This despite Erdogan previously agreeing to keep militants away from a 15km to 20km deep buffer zone established between HTS and pro-Damascus forces.

Turkey for its part has predictably laid blame on Assad, saying Damascus had for years purposefully facilitated the resettling of al-Qaeda terrorists in the northwest Syrian province. Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova described that the Idlib ceasefire zone had "essentially been taken under the full control of militants from the al-Nusra alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, through the ousting of moderate armed opposition units."


Comment: Erdogan isn't wrong, but it's beside the point. Of course, that's where all the terrorists were sent. And that's why the Idlib offensive should have and would have proceeded if not for Western complaining. Turkey knew the situation, and agreed to do something about it. They failed. The fact remains: Idlib is overrun by al-Qaeda and every nation presuming to fight a "war on terror" should have no problem with Syria and Russia doing exactly that.


Last September as Syrian Army forces began to mobilized for a planned major attack on what even the United States has acknowledged as the last major al-Qaeda stronghold in Syria, US officials played the chemical weapons card, warning that if there was so much as an accusation of banned weapons usage on the part of the Syrian-Russian coalition that Washington would intervene. The Turkey deal subsequently took shape when Erdogan and Putin agreed that a temporary ceasefire between the countries would "avert a major humanitarian crisis" - especially given that some 3 million civilians live amidst al-Qaeda and extremist groups.

Likely hawks within the Trump administration will seize on this now "collapsed" deal, as well as last week's ISIS suicide attack on a US patrol in Manbij, which killed 4 Americans, to argue the Pentagon must stay the course and maintain a muscular presence in order to prevent any future "massacre" of civilians and fighters in Idlib.


Comment: They can argue, but they're unlikely to do much more. By all indications, Trump is intent on leaving. It will take more than a bunch of "failed generals" and armchair military strategists to change his mind.


Should Turkish officials depart Moscow without salvaging any part of the ceasefire, and if Syrian Army shelling and preparations for an assault resume, the Syrian proxy war will turn red hot once again, opening the possibility of yet more US intervention, instead of the planned draw down.