The crisis in Catalonia was provoked by Catalonia's nationalists, not by the Spanish government, and if handled firmly is neither big nor dangerous

As the Catalonia crisis slides towards its climax, a number of misconceptions about it need urgently to be set aside.

The illegality of the independence referendum does matter

Firstly, the crisis was triggered by the decision of Carles Puidgemont and of the Catalan regional government to call an independence referendum which was unconstitutional and therefore illegal.

I am troubled by the willingness of many people to disregard the illegality of the Catalan referendum and to support - apparently without giving much thought to the consequences - what was an exercise in straightforward law-breaking.

This has gone along with all sorts of claims that Spain's constitution can somehow be disregarded in this instance because constitutions supposedly derive their legitimacy from popular consent, which in Catalonia's case the Spanish constitution is supposedly lacking.

These are wild and dangerous arguments. Of all political systems, democracy is the one which depends most on rigorous observation of the constitution and the law. When these are disregarded and unconstitutional and illegal actions are taken and become the norm it is democracy itself which breaks down.

That is precisely what happened for example in Ukraine, where the whole root of the present crisis is the Maidan movement's persistent refusal to respect the outcome of democratic and constitutional elections which it loses, and its willingness - as in its overthrow in February 2014 of President Yanukovych - to use unconstitutional and illegal methods to further its objectives.

The result in Ukraine was to bring the whole constitutional and legal order of Ukraine by 2014 crashing down with an unconstitutional government illegally installed by violent methods triggering secessionist moves by those who felt rightly that their constitutional and democratic rights and protections had been illegally taken from them.

That is absolutely not the situation in Catalonia today, and the parallels some people I suspect are making - if only in their own minds - between the post 2014 independence movements in Crimea and Donbass and the one in Catalonia today are false ones and should be rejected.

The fact that some people in Catalonia are unhappy with the present situation cannot be taken to mean that the constitution of the whole of Spain - of which Catalonia is only a part - no longer has consent or legitimacy and can simply be disregarded and set aside. That is to privilege the obsessions of a small minority of Spain's people over those of the great majority, something which would not only make constitutional government in Spain or indeed anywhere else where that principle was applied impossible, but which is in fact the reverse of what democracy is supposed to be.

I would add that the fact that in other more established democracies - such as the United States - the constitution and the law are being repeatedly violated by those in authority is certainly not something which ought to be cited as a precedent for Catalonia to follow. On the contrary it is a cause for concern about the future of democracy in the United States.

Violence in Catalonia was caused by the staging of an illegal referendum


The single fact which possibly more than any other has caused an outpouring of support for the Catalan independence movement is the appearance of riot police in Catalonia attempting to stop the illegal referendum from taking place. This has triggered a predictable - and intended - storm of criticism of the Spanish authorities for supposedly responding violently to the Catalan people's peaceful exercise of their supposed right to vote in the referendum.

This ignores the fact that the reason there was violence in Catalonia was because an act of illegality took place there. To be clear wherever illegal gatherings happen (Navalny's protests in Russia and the Maidan movement's illegal occupation of Kiev's Maidan Square are cases in point) there is always an inherent potential for violence, and the staging in Catalonia of an illegal referendum is no exception.

One should be very slow in situations like the one in Catalonia before criticising the Spanish authorities and the Spanish police for taking action to uphold the law.

Whilst what riot police do can always be made to look ugly, given that what took place in Catalonia was illegal I do not think that the actions of the Spanish authorities or of the Spanish police were disproportionate or unduly violent. Reports of serious injuries are very few, and of reports of deaths thankfully there are none.

As was the case during the Slovene crisis of 1991, in Ukraine during the Maidan riots of 2013/2014, during the Libyan and Syrian protests of 2011, and during Navalny's various protests in Moscow and elsewhere since then, I have no doubt that part of the intention behind the illegal staging of the referendum in Catalonia was precisely to provoke a reaction by the authorities and the police which could be presented to the outside world as a case of the authorities 'violently cracking down on peaceful protests'.

I am always surprised by how easily manipulated people are by this tactic.

The Spanish authorities almost certainly had no alternative but to react as they did

Here I must make some qualifications, since I accept that it is possible that the Spanish authorities may have had other more peaceful options than the ones they used in dealing with this crisis. I do not know enough about the internal situation in Spain to know for sure one way or the other. However I doubt that the overwhelming majority of those who pronounce confidently on this issue from the other side know much about the internal political situation in Spain either.

Again I feel that far too many people have been in a rush to make assumptions about possible alternative peaceful options for the Spanish government to have used to deal with this crisis, which because of the actual situation today in Spain may not in fact exist.

For example I question whether the fact that the Spanish authorities responded passively to an earlier referendum is as important as some people think. It is surely possible - even likely - that the political situation in Spain and Catalonia is now such that what it was possible to ignore before is impossible to ignore now. Giving a proper answer to this question requires a deep knowledge of Spanish domestic politics which I do not have, but which I doubt that most of the people who pronounce on this matter have either.

Ultimately a state which is not prepared to take action to defend the constitutional and legal order upon which it is based has no future.

It was the persistent refusal or inability of Mikhail Gorbachev's government to act decisively to reassert its authority (derived from the Soviet constitution) in places like the Baltic States, Moldova and the Transcaucasus which in the end undermined its authority across the whole USSR, causing the USSR itself to collapse.

By contrast it was the Chinese government's determined reassertion of its authority during the Tiananmen protests of 1989 which secured its survival, and China's stability thereafter.

Ultimately if the Spanish government were to ignore persistent blatant illegality in Catalonia its authority would collapse there, with the likely result that it would in time collapse across the whole of the rest of Spain as well. Quite possibly that was the point which the Spanish government felt had been reached when this latest illegal referendum was called.

If so then the Spanish government's decision to send police to Catalonia to reassert its authority and that of the constitution and of the law in the face of what was a concerted illegal challenge to its authority was almost certainly - in terms of its own and the Spanish state's survival - politically speaking the right one and indeed the only one.

There are no grounds to say that the Spanish courts behaved in a biased way in striking down sections of an autonomy agreement reached between a previous Spanish government and Catalonia

Again it concerns me that so many people have uncritically accepted this claim of Francoist bias on the part of the Spanish judiciary, self-serving on the part of Catalonia's nationalists though it is.

Ultimately there is no better judge of Spain's constitution and law than Spain's own courts. Possibly some of the judges in those courts are old fashioned people of right wing and conservative views. However General Franco - Spain's former fascist dictator - has now been dead for 42 years. It beggars belief that after 42 years of constitutional democracy (a period longer than Franco's rule) the entire Spanish legal and judicial system should continue to be permeated with his thinking.

I have seen no sustained legal criticism of the Spanish court decisions which are being objected to, and I see no reason therefore to think that those decisions were either biased or wrong.

The fact that the Catalan authorities secured for themselves in negotiations with an earlier Spanish government more than they may have been legally entitled to under Spain's constitution does not mean that they are justified now in acting illegally simply because decisions in the courts have gone against them.

No one has a right to act illegally because they lose a case in court - the idea is actually absurd - and elected authorities such as the ones in Catalonia especially should not do so.

The Catalan authorities did not need to act illegally to secure independence or greater autonomy for Catalonia

Again it concerns me how readily the obviously self-serving claim that a resort to illegality is somehow justified because of the supposed impossibility of otherwise extracting concessions from the Spanish state is being accepted.

Spain is not a monolith and Catalonia is one of its biggest provinces and is also its richest province. That means that a Catalan government committed to the objective of greater autonomy or even independence for Catalonia has any number of legal options it could turn to in order to achieve its objective.

There are for example political forces in the rest of Spain - such as for example, Podemos - with which it might be able to ally itself with in order to secure a new Spanish government with which it could negotiate greater autonomy or even independence. It could also press for changes to Spain's constitution - which can be amended in a legal and constitutional way, like any other constitution can - to achieve those objectives.

It could incidentally also have chosen to stage the recent vote not as a binding independence referendum but as a non-binding opinion poll in order to show how strong feeling in support of independence within Catalonia is.

Instead the present Catalan government wilfully chose the path of illegality thereby - almost certainly intentionally - triggering the present crisis.

The fact that it chose to act in this way instead of choosing one of the legal and constitutional (though incremental) options available to it makes me in fact question the whole foundation myth of this whole crisis: that there is a strong majority in Catalonia which supports independence from Spain.

Generally speaking a resort to illegality by a nationalist movement only takes place within a democratic and constitutional framework when the nationalist movement itself doubts that it has the support it says it does. The intention is to use illegality to provoke a reaction from the authorities in order to polarise opinion and harden support behind the nationalist movement.

That for example was what lay behind the resort to illegality in Ukraine in 2004 and 2014, and it seems to me that that is what we are seeing being attempted in Catalonia now.

Negotiations may not offer a solution

The claim that negotiations are the route out of the crisis is something which is always said in crises of this sort, and it perhaps the most dangerous myth of all.

The proper solution of the crisis in Catalonia is not negotiations. It is a return to legality.

When President Yanukovych of Ukraine in 2014 sought to negotiate with the leaders of the Maidan movement who were acting illegally he did not secure a peaceful or proper solution to the crisis in Ukraine. He secured instead his own downfall and that of the whole constitutional order of Ukraine.

In this case if the Catalan government persists in its claim that the illegal referendum has given Catalonia a 'right' to secede from Spain then negotiations between it and the Spanish government become unwise and even dangerous, since they can appear to be legitimising that objective and the way the Catalan government is going about achieving it. In that case the 'negotiations' simply become a mechanism to achieve Catalan independence from Spain. Anyone who observed Puidgemont's speech to the Catalan parliament can see that that is exactly the agenda he is following.

Again it puzzles me that some people are unable to see behind this - wholly transparent - agenda, and construe a purported 'offer' from Puidgemont for talks - be it noted on his terms - as a 'last chance for Spain' when it is in reality the precise opposite.

The Spanish government's challenge to Puidgemont - to clarify whether he has declared independence or not - by contrast makes total sense, as does the Spanish government's eight day ultimatum to the Catalan government to scrap its independence declaration or face the consequences.

This is not a major crisis in Spain and for the European Union

Though here I cannot be sure I suspect that the claim that this is a big or serious crisis is the biggest myth of all.

The Spanish government has threatened the Catalan government with the imposition of direct rule from Madrid unless it backs down and cancels its independence declaration. It has also made it fairly clear that it is considering legal proceedings against the Catalan officials - including Puidgemont - who were responsible for the referendum and for the independence declaration.

This is being universally reported as taking Spain into 'uncharted waters', supposedly causing a huge crisis in Catalonia and Spain and ultimately for the EU.

I am not sure why. No doubt the imposition of direct rule by Madrid would meet with opposition in Catalonia. However short of a resort to outright violence I have no doubt the resources of the Spanish state would enable it to prevail quickly in the event of a stand-off. Catalan society is divided on the independence question - with much of Catalonia's working class said to be opposed - so it is difficult to see how opposition could be sustained for very long.

Needless to say if there is a resort to violence the resources of the Spanish state will quickly contain it. A Spanish state that was able to defeat the challenge of Basque terrorism can certainly counter any threat of violence coming from within Catalonia. I would add that in the event that they were to resort to violence - which I think is very unlikely - the Catalan nationalists would quickly lose support within Catalonia itself.

Here it is essential to make a point made previously by Haneul Na'avi. The Catalan independence movement is in no sense a revolutionary movement. It is not calling for a revolutionary transformation of Catalan or Spanish society. Mostly it is a conservative middle class movement anxious to shore up the economic and cultural privileges of Catalonia's conservative middle class. That all but excludes any real possibility of it posing any true sustained challenge either to the Spanish state or to the EU or to the neoliberal global order, always provided that the Spanish government keeps its head and preserves its domestic support.

As for the European Union, the Catalan nationalists have pledged their loyalty to it. Apparently they hope this will win them sympathy and support from the European Union, just as it did for Slovenia in 1991.

In that they are likely to be disappointed. Though there may be some officials within the EU bureaucracy in Brussels who are sympathetic to Catalonia's cause, the most powerful EU states - Germany, France and Italy, all of which face potential challenges from independence movements of their own - are all but certain to side with Spain, their fellow EU state, against them.

The basic lesson of the last 25 years is that no secessionist movement strongly opposed by the government of the state it is looking to secede from can win independence unless it has strong support from powerful outside powers. As of this moment the Catalan independence movement has no such support - or none that matters - and unless that changes - and there is no reason to think it will - that dooms its independence bid to certain failure.

Much will depend on how the Spanish government handles the situation over the next few weeks. Provided it keeps its nerve and avoids being provoked into either excessive overreaction or unnecessary concessions, the strong odds seem to me to be that it will prevail, and that following a few days or even weeks of protests its imposition of direct rule on Catalonia will be seen to be successful.

In that case after a short time I would expect opinion in Catalonia - already divided on the independence question - to start to swing back towards the government, and the crisis in Catalonia to subside.

Russia does not support Catalan independence

It is actually ridiculous to waste time on this point and I only do so because a few people in Spain and the US who have lost all touch with reality appear to believe it.

The Russian government's position is that the crisis in Catalonia is a strictly Spanish internal matter. However in private I have no doubt the Russian government's sympathies are not with the Catalans but with Spain.

Though the two countries are hardly close, relations between Russia and Spain are cordial, with Spain being one of those countries which in 2014 expressed doubts about the wisdom of the EU imposing sanctions on Russia.

Beyond that however is the overriding concern for Russia that the break up of Spain would increase regional instability - something the Russians deeply mistrust - without conferring on Russia any obvious advantages. To be clear, quite how a pro-EU, right wing, Atlanticist independent Catalonia - which is what Puidgemont says he wants - would benefit Russia completely escapes me.

I am sure that no one in authority in Moscow wants to see that, and the Russian government's repeated public pronouncements that it wants to see the crisis in Catalonia resolved peacefully within the framework of Spain constitution and its law should be accepted as its true position.

Summary

Internal crises in various states like the one in Spain and Catalonia blow up from time to time. In my opinion when they do they pose little danger to world peace or to the international system unless they directly impact on the national security interests of the Great Powers.

In Catalonia's case neither the US nor Russia - the two Great Powers which in this region matter - have any interest in an independent Catalonia, whilst the two other Great Powers - China and India - are certain to oppose it, whilst the dominant regional power - Germany - is certain to oppose it also.

That almost certainly means that provided the authorities in Madrid keep their nerve they should be able to contain this crisis with little difficulty. Whilst the challenge of Catalan nationalism will doubtless continue for a time to pose problems for the Spanish state, there is no reason to think it cannot surmount them.

As for Mariano Rajoy - Spain's much maligned Prime Minister - the high probability is that he will emerge from this crisis with his popularity and authority enhanced amongst Spain's people, so that he will win a victory in the election which he is likely to call soon. In saying this I should make clear that (1) for entirely different reasons unrelated to the Catalan crisis I neither like nor support Rajoy; and (2) that it is important to stress that for Rajoy it is ultimately the support he gets in Spain from its people and from the leading Western powers which matters, and not what the international liberal commentariat says about him.

It is essential when discussing a crisis like this to keep a clear head. Crises of this sort only start to become dangerous when the myths conjured up by those who intentionally trigger them start to become accepted as facts. That is what happened disastrously in 1991 in Yugoslavia and in 2014 in Ukraine.

There is no reason to do this in Catalonia's case and thankfully the indifference of the Great Powers to this crisis makes it unlikely it will happen.