Erdogan and Trump on phone
The US President Donald Trump's phone call on Tuesday to Turkish President Recep Erdogan has triggered a flurry of diplomatic activity, some of which have disturbing implications for the Syrian conflict. The White House readout was rather taciturn and completely skirted the five-letter word 'Syria'. But how could there be, possibly, a conversation between Trump and Erdogan in the ebb and flow of life in the Middle East without mentioning Syria?

But then, nothing remains secret in Ankara for long, and from details trickling in, it was a substantive conversation that Trump and Erdogan held. A sure sign of it could be that the CIA boss Mike Pompeo is landing in Ankara for talks on Thursday, which will be, incidentally, the spy chief's first foreign destination on a business trip. Turkey seems to be regaining its frontline status in the US' covert operations in the Middle East. (Pompeo's regional itinerary will give some clue to the tip of the iceberg.) The presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin disclosed today in Ankara that Turkish military operations in al-Bab and Raqqa in northern Syria will be among Pompeo's talking points.

Meanwhile, Kalin dropped a bombshell, saying the controversial topic of 'safe zones' was discussed between Erdogan and Trump. He claimed that Erdogan raised the issue - "We envision the establishment of the Azaz-Jarablus-al-Bab line as a safe zone." Kalin estimates that the Trump administration views Erdogan's proposal positively. How far Kalin hyped up Trump's call we will never know, but if there is indeed common ground between Washington and Ankara with regard to locating the safe zone in northern Syria straddling Turkish border (which has been Erdogan's dream project), Moscow and Tehran will sit up and take note, for sure.

Equally, Turkey announced on Tuesday that the first session of the Turkish-Saudi Arabian bilateral coordination council in Ankara on Thursday would bring the Saudi Foreign Minister Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir to the Turkish capital. Al-Jubeir is expected to meet Erdogan. (By the way, Erdogan is also due to travel to Saudi Arabia in the weekend.) Now, consider the following:
  • Trump calls King Salman of Saudi Arabia and the Crown Prince of UAE Sheikh Zayid on January 29;
  • NSA Michael Flynn comes out with his famous statement on Iran in February 1;
  • Trump meets King Abdullah of Jordan on February 2;
  • NSA Flynn makes a second threatening statement on Iran on February 3;
  • Trump calls Erdogan on Feb 7;
  • Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir visits Ankara on February 7-8;
  • CIA chief Mike Pompeo to meet Erdogan in Ankara on February 9;
  • Erdogan is due to travel to Saudi Arabia in the weekend.
It won't require much ingenuity to connect the dots and figure out what the surge of diplomatic activity relates to. It's Iran, stupid! Everything depends on Trump's next move on Iran. In an opinion piece featured by the Iranian news agency IRNA today, Hossein Mousavian, the well-known former Iranian diplomat (who is in Princeton), has warned that Trump will use the Iran bogey to mobilize domestic support and as diversionary tactic, which makes it difficult to predict the turn of events. Mousavian underscored that Tehran should be vigilant and eschew any moves that might play into Trump's game plan and should instead focus on its credentials as a factor of regional stability.

The Trump administration's focus on Turkey and Saudi Arabia suggests that the US strategy could be to force Iran on the back foot through a sustained 'psywar' and thereby create new facts on the ground in Syria. Israel has been demanding all along that Iranian forces and Hezbollah militia should vacate Syria. This has also been the Turkish and Saudi demand. Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia estimate that without such strong Iranian / Hezbollah support, Syrian government forces would pack up in no time. (Russian air operations also depend critically on the ground support from the Iranian forces and Hezbollah.)

Significantly, on February 1, Turkish and Israeli foreign secretaries met in Ankara for the first time after a gap of 7 years. An Israeli foreign ministry statement said that the aim of the three-day visit by the head of foreign ministry Yuval Rotem is to "continue developing bilateral ties and strengthen cooperation on the political, economic and cultural spheres. The political dialogue sends a positive message on the commitment of both sides to deepen the relationship between the two countries." The Turkish reports said that the political consultations covered 'developments in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean' and that the two sides agreed on the importance of Turkish-Israeli relations for regional security and stability.