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Hurricane Matthew will hammer parts of eastern Florida and other parts of the Southeast coast starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend.
As illustrated by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) projected path map, and also explained below, the severity of any direct impacts will depend on how close the center of Matthew moves near the coast.
All interests from Florida to coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should continue to monitor the forecast closely and make necessary preparations for a hurricane. Those in eastern Florida should make those preparations as soon as possible.
(MORE: Full Matthew Forecast)
Here is the latest on what we know about Matthew right now in terms of U.S. impacts.
1. Timing For Matthew
As far as timing for any impacts along the Southeast coast, here is a general overview. The NHC forecast calls for Matthew to be a strong hurricane during this timeframe.
Florida Peninsula (particularly east): Thursday-Friday, possibly lingering into early Saturday in northeast Florida.
Southeast Georgia: Friday-Saturday.
Eastern Carolinas: Later Friday-Saturday, possibly continuing into Sunday.
2. Battering Waves, Coastal Flooding, Beach Erosion Likely
No matter how close the center of Matthew passes in relation to the Southeast coast, we expect major marine impacts.
Matthew will generate large, battering waves along the entire coastline Thursday into the weekend. Mariners and beachgoers are encouraged to stay out of the water given this danger.
Significant coastal flooding is also likely along the path of Matthew from Florida into the Carolinas. The magnitude of any inundation will be dictated by the exact path Matthew takes.
Furthermore, the threat for major, damaging storm surge flooding is in play should the center of Matthew make landfall along the Southeast coast. Locations from Florida's east coast to the coastal Carolinas are at risk for this possibility, though this is still uncertain.
Here is how high the water could reach during this life-threatening inundation if the peak surge coincides with high tide, according to the National Hurricane Center:Of course, beach erosion is a given with all those factors above playing out.
- North Palm Beach, Florida, to the Flagler/Volusia county line: 3-5 feet above ground level
If you live along the immediate coast, stay informed and have a plan to evacuate should you be instructed to do so.
3. Tropical-Storm-Force Winds and Hurricane-Force Winds Likely
The potential for tropical storm-force winds (39 mph+) or hurricane-force winds (74+ mph) is in play along the entire Southeast coast.
How strong those winds are in any one location will depend on where the center of Matthew tracks in relation to the Southeast coast.
The last few days, forecast guidance has trended towards a track closer to the coast, which increases the probability of strong, damaging winds in some areas.
Right now, it appears at least tropical storm-force winds likely from most of Florida's East Coast to coastal North Carolina.
Hurricane-force winds are also highly possible throughout that stretch of the coast. This would particularly be the case if Matthew's eyewall grinds along the Southeast coast or even makes landfall, again anywhere from Florida's east coast to coastal Georgia and the Carolinas.
At this time, the National Hurricane Center has the greatest chance of hurricane-force winds right along Florida's east coast. Those damaging winds are likely to occur no matter whether the center of Matthew makes landfall or stays just offshore. The exact strength of the winds will depend on how close the eyewall passes to the coast.
Structural wind damage will be possible along with downed trees and widespread power outages in areas where hurricane-force winds occur. Matthew is forecast to be a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) when it moves near Florida's east coast, so extreme wind damage cannot be ruled out. Once again, that will depend on the exact path of the eyewall.
Even tropical storm-force winds could down trees and knock out power.
4. Rainfall Flooding, Tornadoes
Two other threats we will have to watch for from Matthew is the potential for rainfall flooding and tornadoes.
Once again, Matthews track in relation to the U.S. coast will dictate the magnitude of any heavy rainfall impacts, possibly resulting in flooding. The heaviest rainfall totals, possibly ranging between 5-12 inches, are likely to be confined to the immediate coast, from Florida to the North Carolina.
In areas where coastal flooding occurs, the heavy rainfall could make flooding worse or prevent water from receding.
An isolated tornado threat could also develop on the Southeast coast, particularly if Matthew makes landfall.
5. Matthew May Stall Off Southeast Coast Instead of Impacting Northeast States
In recent days, forecast guidance had suggested Matthew would eventually get pulled northeastward by a jet stream dip and potentially impact the Northeast states along with Atlantic Canada. This no longer appears to be the most likely scenario.
Instead, that jet stream dip may leave Matthew behind. This would result in Matthew pushing southeastward away from the coastal Carolinas on Sunday. It's possible Matthew could then meander off the Southeast coast into early next week, but details on where it may eventually go from there are uncertain at this time.
Keep the news fun, keep it entertaining. A very brief report on actual news is required, then on to the happy news. Buckets of happy news. Pour it on. People suffering from a catastrophic storm in a neighboring country just isn't a trendy topic to discuss. Throwing dirt at Donald Trump, now that's "hot".