Science & Technology
Yet in recent years, there has been much talk of a 'replication crisis'. Many results that we assumed were robust simply cannot be replicated. The term is typically used in the context of psychology and medicine, though it may apply to other fields as well.
So how much of science is reproducible? One way of tackling this question is to select a large number of studies from a particular field and then attempt to replicate them. This has been done several times.
A 2012 paper was only able to replicate 11% of 53 studies from pre-clinical cancer. A 2015 paper was only able to replicate 36% of 97 studies from psychology. A 2018 paper did slightly better, replicating 54% of 28 studies from that field. A 2016 paper was able to replicate 60% of 60% of 100 economics experiments. Another 2018 paper was able to replicate 62% of 21 social science experiments.
These numbers are sobering. But there's an important caveat: the 'studies to be replicated' were selected somewhat arbitrarily, so the corresponding percentage can't be taken as representative of the entire field.
Another way of tackling the question above is to simply ask researchers what percentage of the studies in your field can be replicated - a sort of 'wisdom of the crowds' approach.
This was done in a 2016 survey by the journal Nature. They got 1,500 responses - the vast majority from currently-working scientists. Respondents were asked, "In your opinion, what proportion of published work in your field is reproducible?"
The highest figure - 72% - was found in physics. The lowest figure - 52% - was found in "other" (which I suspect is mostly social scientists). Environmental science and medicine had intermediate figures - both 58%. Chemistry was a little higher at 65%. (Answers did not differ substantially between students and working scientists.)
These figures are again sobering. According to researchers themselves, close to half of published work in medicine, social science and environmental science cannot be replicated. Unsurprisingly, more 'objective' fields like physics and chemistry are perceived to have higher rates of replicability.
Overall, the two methods yield similar findings: a large percentage of results in more 'subjective' - dare one say 'politicized' - fields are not reproducible.
Reader Comments
Gravity does not depend upon mass. Newton said it did, but he also allowed that it was not attractive, but repulsive: pressure forces objects togher, irrespective of mass. Yet NASA et al use mass in their efforts to lie to us about the mass of stars and planets. That creates the need for dark mass dark energy and black holes.
Lyellism kills catastrophe research and therefore intelligent preparation for the consequences of dis aster and cata astrophe : both words meaning falling star!
Commentators have not responded to these points made by me before now. Why not? Too difficult?
It's a wild card thought, meant well
The ocean of aether is like the ocean of gases we depend upon to live. aether seems to exert apressure that forces things together.
Just my thoughts.
WN3
How about this thought - "size is relative"
Plus a true singularity does not have any differentiation....it is singular through and through.
My absolute presupposition is such a singularity existed before the beginning of "time", but then once time commenced there is no going back and there is no figuring how it started. It just is and it moves in one direction only - the future!
So, in this way time is 2-dimensional. It can be measured on a line of time, but it only has one degree of freedom - that is the future.
Happy New Year!
Ken
It must be stopped - even if most remain apathetic to it.
Looking forward to reading your posts in 23.
Ken
1. Folks in Buffalo ought have contingencies in place for this sort of event. They should know better - they should stop staring at devices and think for themselves. A propane heater and 5-gallon cylinder might set you back about $150, but it will save your life if power gets cut off and it is cold and snowy and your stuck in your place.
2. When I lived in Buffalo, if there was an elderly couple up the road, one of us kids or probably two of us, would be sent on assignment to check out how the old couple were doing. If they needed help, we would have called help in in person.
3. Any folks taking advantage of the suffering of others by using opportunity to loot a store, a merchant, deserve the death penalty because it is the opposite of community cohesiveness.
4. If there are any mother effers out there controlling the weather or thinking they can, they got another thing coming and it will be ruthless to them individually.
5. I remember when a community used to help each other out without blinking an eye, it was just how we made ourselves a better community, and it breaks my heart that the Buffalo I knew when I was a kid must just be a memory now.
~~~
2023 is gonna be better.
Peace to you,
Ken
Some people care for others, are very mindful of the vulnerable within their neighbourhood and act appropriately, as I do and no doubt yourself too.
Whilst others demonstrate careless behaviour, act inappropriately, damaging others property with their foolish acts ( trying to drive their pickup down a Ice street) and the scum of society come out of the gutters and trash stores.
As mentioned, much should be learnt so such an event doesn't result in unnecessary deaths and loss of property in the future.
WN3.
It doesn't mean I'm not upset, because I am, but I make every effort to direct my indignancy directly and precisely upon the cause.
Like everything else, it ain't static.
I send condolences to all those who passed in Buffalo due to this storm - I suspect the numbers are going to increase as the bodies are discovered.
Ken
To send the information into overdrive to my mind of the people was the cult of religiousness belief or cultist belief if you will, That something, a false god outside their own spiritual being can console their woes, not just everything within themselves, also life on earth, and those people were and still are called heretics.
In the 16th nd 17thC there was a great program to destroy any so called non religious beliefs.
They were physically tortured, both men and women (mostly women because of pagan, healing methods) burned at the stake tortured and died. Thousands died in US and Europe, in modern times, it could be called a program against christian aberrant thought.
Strangely, I can see parallels, within the so called modern culture today.
Amongst some academics who forgot the fight of Galileo against the Roman Church, and to bring in truth of decades of of truth, that ring through the centuries.
Comment: See also: