serbia cartoon
After the crown prince of the Austria-Hungary monarchy Archduke Franz Ferdinand was shot and killed in Sarajevo the government of Austria waited three weeks to issue a 10-point ultimatum to Serbia which it held responsible for the incident. At least three of those points concerned the suppression of "propaganda against Austria-Hungary" and the Austrian monarchy by private and state entities. It demanded a response within two days:
Sir Edward Grey, the British Foreign Secretary, commented that he had "never before seen one State address to another independent State a document of so formidable a character."
The Austrian ultimatum was an offer to be refused. But Serbia did not fall into that trap. It conceded on everything but two minor points. This was to no avail. The issues and plans Austria had were not about the assassination of [the disliked] Franz Ferdinand or the demands issued in the ultimatum. Two days later Austria-Hungary declared war against Serbia. Allies jumped to either side. World War I had started.

The now official demands by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and some minor Gulf sheikdoms against Qatar have a similar smell to them. They are also "an offer to be refused."

The demands come late, three weeks after Saudi Arabia first accused Qatar of "supporting terrorism", three weeks after it closed the border and laid siege on the country.

(Qatar is surely "supporting terrorism". So is the U.S. - the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services just rejected an asylum request because the person in question has relations with the Free Syrian Army which it considers to be an "undesignated terrorist organization". The CIA built and supports the FSA. But the biggest terrorist sponsors of all are and have been the Saudis.)

Spats between member of the Gulf Cooperation Council are usually mediated by the U.S. government. But without any official demands issued against Qatar there was nothing to mediate about. Three day ago U.S. Department of State finally issued a rather angry statement towards Saudi Arabia:
"We are mystified that the Gulf states have not released to the public, nor to the Qataris, the details about the claims that they are making toward Qatar," explained State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert on Tuesday.
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"At this point, we are left with one simple question: Were the actions really about their concerns about Qatar's alleged support for terrorism, or were they about the long-simmering grievances between and among the GCC countries?" Nauert asked.
The real issue for Saudi Arabia is the support for the Muslim Brotherhood by Qatar. The MB provides an alternative model of Islamic government to the hereditary kingdoms of the Gulf sheiks. They are a danger to the Saudi ruling family. A second point are Qatar's relative good relations with Iran, the external enemy the Saudis (and Israeli) rulers need to keep their people in line.

A summary of the thirteen points:
In effect, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain are asking Qatar to hand over control of its foreign policy to them. It will not be allowed to have diplomatic relations with Iran and its contact with Iran will be limited to trade and commerce that "complies with US and international sanctions". Qatar will not be allowed contact with political opposition figures in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain — even though other countries (including western countries) do so routinely. In addition, Qatar is being asked to hand over all its files on those opposition groups.
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Qatar is also being asked to "end interference in sovereign countries' internal affairs" while allowing Saudi Arabia, the UAE, etc, apparently unlimited interference in Qatar's own affairs. Qatar, according to the list of demands, must "align itself with the other Gulf and Arab countries militarily, politically, socially and economically".

Then there's the closure of Qatar's TV station, al-Jazeera. Obviously, the Saudis, Emiratis, etc, don't like it. ... Qatar is also told to stop funding several other news organisations, including Middle East Eye and al-Arabi al-Jadeed (also available in English as The New Arab).
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Finally, Qatar is being asked to sign blank cheque covering "reparations and compensation for loss of life and other, financial losses caused by Qatar's policies in recent years".

Comment: The Duran has compiled a handy list and analysis of the demands:
1. REPARATIONS: ... Clearly the Saudis have not studied the history of Europe after the First World War where war reparations and a guilt clause forced on Germany played some part in fomenting the rise of fascism in Germany. If anything, Saudi's policies have created more "victims and loses" than those of Qatar. Again this is the pot calling the kettle black and using the widely discredited aggressive demand for reparations as part of a cynical ultimatum.

2. Don't Have Good Relations With Iran: Qatar's apparently warming relationship with Iran is one of the proximate causes of the Saudi led boycott of Doha. Many suspect that given the fact that Qatar's ambition to build a gas pipeline to Turkey running through Syria is now dead in the water, that Qatar which shares the same natural gas field with Iran, may be working to supply gas to Turkey via Iran.

Saudi which has accused Qatar of meddling in other countries (a true allegation) is now meddling in Qatar's internal affairs, telling Doha that it cannot develop good relations with Iran.

This is not only ridiculous but it goes against the principles of state sovereignty as defined by international law.

3. Kick Turkey Out: In yet another violation of the principles of international sovereignty, Saudi has demanded that Qatar kick out recently arrived Turkish troops. Saudi also demands that Qatar cease cooperating with Turkey militarily.

This is Qatar and Turkey's right to cooperate if they want to. No foreign state has the right to dictate otherwise.

4. Shut Down Al Jazeera: Saudi has already taken state-run Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera off air in Saudi and kicked out their staff from the country, but now Riyadh wants the broadcaster to go off air entirely - worldwide.

This is colonialism, nothing more.

5. Terrorism: Saudi demands that Qatar renounce and cut ties with terrorist groups including ISIS, Al-Qaeda/al-Nusra (both of which Saudi funds) as well as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is not considered a terrorist group by most of the world, including in Lebanon where Hezbollah is based. Hezbollah is a political party with democratic representation in the Lebanese Parliament.

4. Stop Funding Terrorism: A cynical repeat of the previous demand

5. Hand Over Terrorists:
Saudi demands that Qatar hands over terrorists harboured by Doha.

6. Interference In Other Nations: Saudi demands that Qatar does not interfere in the affairs of other countries. Saudi's entire list is one giant interference with the affairs of other nations (not just Qatar but also Iran and Turkey). This one is truly laughable.

7. Have Peaceful Relations With Gulf Neighbours: This one really boils down to "do what I say or I'll kill you". A very poor Hollywood action-comedy springs to mind.

8. Other Media: In addition to shutting down Al Jazeera, Qatar must shut down all other media outlets it funds and/or owns.

9. Probation: Qatar must allow Saudi to audit Qatar's action on these demands once every month for a year, every three months for the second year and once a year for ten years after that. What planet is Saudi living on?

10. Opposition Leaders: Saudi demands that Qatar hand over all records indicating their support for opposition figures in foreign countries.

11. Citizenship: Do not give citizenship to individuals wanted for crimes by Saudi, UAE, Bahrain or Egypt

12. Individual Terrorists: Saudi demands that Qatar cease funding individual terrorists above and beyond the groups previously proscribed by Saudi.

13. Do All of This In 10 Days: Saudi demands that Qatar does all of the above in 10 days. No specific threat is issued in the event of non-compliance.

The aggregate effect of these demands is that Saudi wants Qatar to become its puppet state while grossly humiliating Qatar in the process.

This will simply not happen and Riyadh is utterly deluded to think otherwise.

The demands are not a list that comes from a responsible nation but instead one which is acting in a power-mad childish and aggressive manner.

The Saudi ultimatum ends on July 3, the anniversary of the Saudi-sponsored military coup against the Qatar-backed Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt. One demand in the ultimatum is for Qatar to end all support for the Brotherhood. The ultimatum will likely be rejected. Qatar will simply not respond until the Saudis and others lift their blockade of the country.

If the Saudis want war they should launch it right away, the Qatari ruler thinks. Doha is sure that the U.S. will not allow that. Ten-thousand U.S. troops are stationed in Qatar. It hosts a major air base and the important Central Command, which leads the war against ISIS and Syria. Qatar just bought U.S. fighter jets for $12 billion and is offering to take a 10% share of American Airlines.

Turkish troops have arrived to protect the sheikdom. One unexpected Saudi demand is that all Turkish troops leave Qatar. The Erdogan government, a Muslim Brotherhood branch, responded with a snippy "Make me do so."
Turkey's Defense Minister Fikri Işık rejected the demand, saying any call for the base to be shut would represent interference in Ankara's relations with Doha. He suggested instead that Turkey might bolster its presence.
There is no "or else" in the Saudi ultimatum. The Saudi ruler, the clown prince Mohammad bin Salman, is not a strategist. He likely has not thought through what he could do should Qatar says "no" to him.

The Trump administration is considering a Camp David-style summit to solve the conflict.
"The president now wants to bring all the key players to Washington," he said. "They need to disavow groups like the [Muslim] Brotherhood for the stability of the Middle East at large. It's not just about Qatari elements funding the Brotherhood but disavowing support for extremism in general," [a senior White House official] said.
The real issue for the Trump administration is to unite the GCC behind his plans against Iran. There is only a small chance that such can be achieved. Iran is an important commercial partner for Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Oman. Those countries have nothing to win from any war with it.

So far Iran is the sole winner of the GCC spat. Should the Saudi blockade of Qatar continue Iran's farmers will sell over 400,000 tons of food per year to Qatar. Steel and concrete are other potential exports products for Iran. Lucrative air traffic in Iranian air space has increased by 17% since the Saudis blocked Qatar Airlines flights through their airspace. Iran will sell more natural gas should Qatar's gas exports be damaged.

As longer this goes on as better for Iran and its allies. The Saudis and Emiratis surely did not think of this when they launched their belligerent plans. The had hoped that Qatar would fold within a day or two. One or two years is now the more likely time frame.