Adrian earliest tropical storm

Comment: Meanwhile, recently in another part of the Pacific - Tropical Cyclone Donna becomes Category 5 storm, worst May storm on record in South Pacific

Tropical Storm Adrian kicked off a record early start to the 2017 eastern Pacific hurricane season Tuesday several hundred miles off the southern Mexican coast, but appears destined for a long-lived stall off the coast into at least next week.

Adrian was the earliest tropical cyclone to form in the northeast Pacific in the satellite era. This record was previously held by Hurricane Alma in 1990.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
  • Tropical Storm Adrian is centered about 460 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico, and is moving slowly toward the northwest.
  • Adrian is forecast to gradually strengthen over the next few days, possibly becoming a hurricane by this weekend.
  • Adrian is also expected to slow down and may stall well off the southern Mexican coast by that time.
Adrian's forecast has become challenging.

Water temperatures south of El Salvador and Guatemala are in the low to mid-80s, and this system is located in an area with low wind shear, which should support at least some additional intensification. But how much remains uncertain.

A bigger challenge is the track.

Winds in the surrounding atmosphere responsible for steering Adrian are expected to become very weak by this weekend.

As a result, Adrian's center may eventually stall off the coast of Mexico's Oaxaca state, and linger for some time, possibly well into next week.

Adrian 2
How close Adrian is to the coast and how strong it is when it stalls are keys.

At a minimum, outer rainbands may produce heavy rain, at times, leading to local flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico and the mountains of Guatemala early next week.

Also, Adrian should eventually produce high surf reaching the coast of southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador by later in the week. At least some coastal flooding and dangerous rip currents are possible.

Adrian 1
The eastern Pacific season begins May 15, which is about a half-month earlier than the Atlantic season. The earlier start date is due to warmer waters and typically weaker wind shear earlier in the season as compared to the Atlantic.

Check back with us at for the latest on this first eastern Pacific named storm of 2017.