Military chopper
© ALEXEI DRUZHININ/RIA NOVOSTI/KREMLIN/REUTERS
Western military commanders are concerned that large-scale Russian military exercises near the Baltic states in September pose heightened risks for a miscalculation that could lead to a crisis, allied officials said.

In a move likely to further heighten tensions, the U.S. Senate on Tuesday approved Montenegro's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an initiative Moscow has bitterly opposed. Officials of the Balkan nation have said Moscow backed a coup attempt there last year to derail the effort. Russia has denied involvement.


Comment: What better way to get a speed pass into NATO than to come up with one more "Bad Russia" aggression scenario - true or false.


The exercises, which Western officials estimate will involve nearly 100,000 troops, will be the first to roll out after a new NATO force in the region reaches full strength. They will also take place at the same time as military drills by Western forces in Sweden, across the Baltic Sea.


Comment: Zapad: NATO says Russia will participate with 100K Russian troops. Russia says only 3000. A 97K over-estimation? Either NATO is just not good at this sort of prediction or it is stoking the fear factor to justify its presence in the Balkans.


U.S. and NATO officers have warned this year's version of Russia's annual Zapad exercises could create more tensions than they have in years, even recalling those that arose during the Cold War.

NATO diplomats and their Russia counterparts will hold a meeting Thursday of the NATO-Russia Council, the alliance announced Tuesday. While the Zapad exercises aren't on the agenda, the ambassadors are expected to discuss Russia's military buildup in the region, particularly in its Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad, and as well as details about the continuing deployment of the NATO force in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

The U.S. troops committed to that NATO force will arrive at their training base in Poland on Saturday. German troops are in place in Lithuania and the entire force is due to be operational by the summer. The alliance force is relatively small at roughly 4,000 troops, but Moscow has criticized it as destabilizing.

For the Russians, the Zapad exercises will be a chance to practice detecting, jamming and targeting allied forces with drones and advanced artillery, while spreading disinformation about its forcestechniques they employed in Ukraine. But they will also offer the U.S. and its allies a window on how Russia undertakes such efforts.


Comment: Likely just speculation. Doubtful Russia has confirmed this program.


The Baltic states have raised particular concerns about the Zapad exercises, which are being conducted jointly by Russia and Belarus. Lithuania's president has said they show Moscow is preparing for war with the West. Allied officials have noted that Russia used military exercises to hide preparations for the annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.


Comment: NATO is ratcheting up the fear factor with half-truths and false narratives. What is their schedule? This is all laying out too conveniently.


Many officials are on edge that an error by an alliance or Russian soldier, such as misreading a drill as an aggressive act, could quickly escalate into a crisis if one side were to respond with force. An incident such as a crashed jet fighter could also raise questions about whether an accident or aggression by the other side occurred.

Senior NATO and American officials say they have precautions in place to minimize the chance of miscalculations. NATO forces will avoid holding exercises close to the Russian border during the Russian drill.

"We will be alert, we will be very vigilant. But we don't want it to turn into a face-off during their biggest exercise of the year," said Gen. Ben Hodges, the top U.S. Army commander in Europe, said at a recent training event for the American unit joining the NATO force.

While U.S. forces are "designed not to provoke a conflict but to prevent a conflict," an official with the U.S. European Command said Tuesday, Russia "continues to increase the intensity of its military activity while operating with an inadequate level of transparency."

Alexander Grushko, Russia's ambassador to NATO, declined to comment on the Zapad exercises. But he said the flexible format of Thursday's meeting with the alliance would allow consideration of "issues related to regional security" and other military activities. Russian officials have expressed hope that the alliance and Moscow are moving to more regular meetings.


Comment: Russia wants more meetings. The US and NATO want to prime the pump for confrontation, down to the singular unfortunate hypothetical accident. Which of these two trajectories will more likely happen? NATO has 'traditional months' for military exercises. Russia has the same - but it is categorized as provoking aggression.


September is the traditional month for military exercises and Sweden, a close NATO partner, is planning its biggest military exercise in two decades at the same time.

The Swedish exercise will involve the U.S. and more than a half-dozen NATO allies. Some 19,000 troops will be involved in practicing for the territorial defense of Sweden, including Gotland Island, which U.S. officials consider critical for ensuring allied access to the Baltic States. Swedish officials said they were aware of the Zapad exercises and would be using caution to ensure no errors occur.

The U.S. contribution to the NATO force is planning its own exercises, including an August drill with Polish and Lithuanian forces to simulate an operation to keep open the Suwalki Gap on the two countries' border in the event of a Russian incursion.

In an effort to avert miscalculations, the top NATO commander, U.S. Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, will take peacetime control of strategic communications, exercises and force posture.

NATO has long criticized Russia for not opening its exercises up to observers and has said it is far more transparent with its drills. The two sides have been briefing each other in the NATO-Russia Council sessions about exercises.

Russia has said the Zapad exercise will involve 3,000 troops, below the number requiring notification. Retired Gen Philip Breedlove, the former top NATO commander, has estimated 100,000 troops, however, and alliance officials have said it would be the largest exercise ever on the border of the Baltic states.