© AFPThe situation in February.
Azaz was the site of fierce fighting in February, when Turkey, startled by gains made by rebels led by the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG), which threatened to cut off Turkish-backed rebel supply routes, bombed rebel positions. Then Prime Minister Ahmet Davotoglu vowed, "We will not allow Azaz to fall." Gains made by the rebels, consisting of the YPG and Jaysh al-Thuwar, part of the Syrian Democratic Forces SDF, were halted by Turkish artillery shelling before they could seize Azaz.
The Azaz corridor connects Aleppo to Turkey and is held by Turkish-backed al-Nusra, Turkmen and Free Syrian Army elements. After advances by the Kurds, SAA and SDF in Aleppo province, Azaz became the sole major town still in the alliance's hands. Its fall would have totally cut off supplies to the Turkish-backed rebels in Aleppo. This explains Turkey's fierce determination to ensure Azaz did not fall to the Kurds. Advances by the Syrian Army (SAA) threatened the same outcome; Turkey also shelled its positions.
ISIS made rapid gains in areas to the east of Azaz on 26 May, capturing 6 villages in a rout of rebel forces. Free Syrian Army units had pledged allegiance to Jaish al-Mujahideen, aiming to bolster their numbers in their ongoing fight against ISIS in the region. This has proven ineffective as its forces now face being isolated and further routed.
© syria.liveuamap.comThe situation today.
ISIS was able to cut off the road linking rebel held Marea to Azaz. This enables it to lay siege to Marea from the north and east, leaving rebels there unable to call on reinforcements. If Marea is captured ISIS would then be able to move from the south, east and north east to attack Azaz, a successful operation ending rebel control in the region. Rebel forces have counter attacked, seeking to recapture lost towns and re-open the road from Azaz to Marea. Heavy clashes are ongoing.
It would be interesting to test Turkey's response in the event of ISIS's victory. Turkey's major objective is to use all means at its disposal to stop the Kurds from taking control of the 100km stretch of land between Jarubulus in the east and Afrin in the west. It regularly supplies al-Nusra, according to Sergei Rudskoy, the head of Russia's General Staff's main operations command, saying at a news conference on 27 May:
"This constant supply of man power and weapons has allowed Jabhat al-Nusra [al-Nusra Front] terrorists to continue their provocative strikes and conduct an offensive on Syrian government forces, thus immobilizing their efforts against terrorists of ISIL (Daesh) in other areas," he added.This supplying of a group, outlawed as terrorists in the US, Russia and by the United Nations, diverts the Syrian Army from its long-running battle to rid its land of ISIS terrorists. Turkey has exploited the ceasefire to rearm and regroup al-Nusra for fresh offensives, disrupting the Geneva peace process and prolonging this interminable war.
Recep Erdogan, a man unrestrained in ambition, will not have failed to notice the recent success of ISIS in Northern Aleppo. Indeed it is more than possible this success has been actively aided by Turkey. Tony Cartalucci, pointing out yet more mainstream media shoddy analysis, asks how ISIS, logistically overstretched, has been able to inflict such resounding victories over rebels heavily supplied by a well-resourced multi-national coalition.
The answer perhaps lies in the Al Rai border crossing to the northeast, an area controlled by ISIS on the Syrian side where it can easily be resupplied should Erdogan ordain it so. The links between Turkey and ISIS are well established, only a fool not being able to recognise that for Turkey ISIS is a prized asset in its quest to overthrow Bashar al-Assad and its long running repression of the Kurds.
Why is Azaz vital to Turkey?
The Azaz corridor is a crucial rebel supply route from Turkey into Aleppo. Through this corridor a powerful multi-national coalition including the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey is able to supply rebels with high volumes of ever increasingly powerful weapons. It is also a source through which to bring fresh fighters to the war.
The Kurds threaten to join their enclaves, separated by only 100 kilometres along the border, which Turkey sees as a major security threat. This would cut off Turkey from Aleppo, hugely damaging its ability to affect the Syrian war.
Turkey can use the area as a long-advocated-for safe zone if it continues to be held by rebels it supports. This provides Turkey, US and Saudi military forces a staging ground to launch an invasion into Syria, something which Turkey has been hesitant to do without the backing of the US. Such a move will activate the partition of Syria, the much vaunted Plan B.
Why is Azaz vital to the Kurds?
Azaz is vital to the Kurds as it can be used to launch operations to capture the territory which separates its enclaves east and west. This achievement would see it hold continuous expanses of territory from the northwest to the northeast. This is a nightmare scenario for Turkey. It would also alarm the Syrian government, which is seeking to regain control of a unified Syria. It may embolden Kurdish plans for statehood, having already announced an autonomous federation in Northern Syria and at the very least would make it almost impossible to exclude them from future peace talks.
The Kurds have finally mounted a much anticipated campaign, crossing the Euphrates River, thus breaching Recep Erdogan's "red line." They have captured territory from ISIS, and a successful double-pronged assault, east from Afrin and continuing west from the Euphrates will see them enter the battle for Azaz. To cut off the terrorist supply route, repel ISIS and capture the territory separating their enclaves must be uppermost in their plans. An escalated Turkish response, including direct incursions into Syria, can be expected, leaving the US in a difficult position navigating between their competing Turkish and Kurdish allies.
The US position on the Azaz corridor
Until now, the US had applied the brakes to the Kurds desire to push west across Erdogan's Euphrates red line. (Things have changed now that the Kurds have crossed the Euphrates in a bid to take Manbij from ISIS.) On the other hand, it has Special Forces (on the ground and wearing boots, I believe) and air support actively assisting the Kurdish-dominated SDF in a campaign aiming to drive ISIS out of its Raqqa caliphate. This is how the US performs its balancing act of support for both the Kurds and Turkey - not too successfully, judging by Erdogan's ire.
Let us not forget the US has no friends, only allies. It will use the Kurds for its own geo-political goals, then discard them when they are no longer useful. As far as the Azaz corridor is concerned, the US actions say quite clearly it is more than happy for the Turkish/Saudi-sponsored rebels, including Al-Nusra to control this strategically vital area. This corridor can then continue to funnel weapons and fighters into Aleppo and beyond and serves as a future central point for a much touted "safe zone."
Syria Driving Terrorists out of Aleppo
Syria's aims in northern Aleppo are diametrically opposed to Turkey's. Supported by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, it is inching closer to cutting off the supply route of weapons and fighters from Turkey. The battle for Aleppo has been dubbed "the mother of all battles", South Front, the excellent source of daily updates, saying: "Both war parties know the side which captures Aleppo wins more than just a city. This side will win Syria's north and therefore - most probably - the war."
Seizing the entirety of the Turkey-Aleppo corridor thwarts Kurdish plans for a continuous line of control from the northwest to the northeast and will effectively end US coalition plans for a "safe zone," offered up to the gullible as providing humanitarian relief, but appreciated by hard-nosed realists to be a launching pad for the escalation of the war and to increase the likelihood of direct US/Russia conflict.
The SAA can drive northeast from Rityan, Nubbol and Zahraa to attack Marea and then towards an isolated Azaz to push the rebels up and out of Syria. Simultaneous coordinated attacks by the Kurds would leave the rebels fighting a losing battle against the SAA from the south, Kurds from the west and ISIS from the north and east. Surely this means inevitable defeat, with surrender or fleeing to Turkey the only options.
Russia has announced it will shortly increase its air strikes on al-Nusra, having stopped strikes in order for other rebel groups to disassociate from al-Nusra. This is wise politically, Russia providing credibility to its consistent statements that it is targeting terrorists in Syria. On the other hand, I believe Russia has been intimidated by the sheer weight of propaganda, criticism and unsubstantiated allegations. It has faced a multi-pronged assault by the US-led coalition, a bullhorn Western media and fake western-sponsored NGO's, all showing their true colours as instruments of hybrid warfare, denigrating Russia as "aggressors" even as it has decimated the ranks of al-Nusra and ISIS, the greatest terror threats of the modern age.
Having given the "moderate" terrorists more than enough time to separate from al-Nusra, Russia can focus its tremendously successful air strikes on al-Nusra and ISIS in Aleppo. The awesome air power of Russia, which has made the US sit up and take notice, has been crucial in the SAA liberating large parts of Syria. Let's hope this pattern continues with a massive push to expel the terrorists out of Aleppo. Maybe then a true diplomatic path to a peaceful settlement can be trod.
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