Researchers said eight hurricanes and 15 named tropical storms are likely to form in the Atlantic basin during the 2010 hurricane season, which begins June 1 and extends through Nov. 30. Four of the storms are expected to develop into major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
The forecasting team based its predictions on weakening of El Nino conditions combined with abnormally strong warming of the tropical Atlantic waters.
"We believe that these two features will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification," the team stated in an update of a report issued in December.
Led by pioneering forecaster William Gray, Colorado State University researchers have been forecasting hurricanes for 27 years. The team bases its predictions on historical data. The 2010 season shows similarities to conditions preceding the very active 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005 hurricane seasons.
"While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season," Gray said in a statement released Tuesday.
The team also predicted:
- A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the East Coast of the U.S., including the Florida Peninsula.
- A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will strike the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas.
Galveston, an island city, is the site of the biggest natural disaster to ever hit the U.S.: In 1900, an unnamed hurricane racked the islands with 135 mph winds, killing at least 6,000 people.
Forecasters also predicted a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, which means earthquake-stricken Haiti could be vulnerable.
The Jan. 12 earthquake killed more than 230,000 people and left more than 1 million homeless, the Haitian ambassador to the U.S., Raymond Alcide Joseph, said in a speech at Princeton University earlier this week.
The forecast will be updated two more times - on June 2, at the beginning of hurricane season, and on Aug. 4, at the midway point.
Hurricane forecasts are watched closely by coastal communities and commodities traders, who base trades on potential impact to offshore drilling.
At least this story leaves out the part about anthropogenic warming.
The Disconnect of News Reporting From Scientific Evidence
By Max Boykoff
Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard
"Since previous research found that the public generates much of its knowledge about science from the mass media, it is crucial to reflect on the role of the mass media in shaping public understanding of climate science and policy. Interactions between climate science, policy, media and the public are complex and dynamic. It is clear that science and policy shape media reporting and public understanding. However, it is also true that journalism and public concern shape ongoing climate science and policy decisions.
[...]
"And if those who represent the U.S. policy position continue to distort science in pursuit of an agenda that benefits special interests, then journalists must provide the crucial scientific context for the public. In this realm of coverage, journalistic credibility is on the line.
[...]
"The question becomes whether awareness of these journalism practices will result in more accurate coverage of anthropogenic climate change. Perhaps it is too soon to tell, but what we do know is that with the recent hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin new opportunities exist to expand and improve how aspects of climate change are framed and discussed."
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