US claims its warning to Russia named Crocus Concert Hall

RFE/RL
Thu, 04 Apr 2024 19:04 UTC

A U.S. intelligence warning to Moscow two weeks ahead of a deadly March 22 terrorist attack included a specific reference to the Crocus City Hall concert venue that was targeted, The Washington Post reported on April 2.

According to the report, which was later confirmed by The New York Times, U.S. officials told Moscow that the Islamic State extremist group was plotting an attack and that Crocus City Hall was a potential target.

The warning did not include specifics about the timing of the attack but said it could come within days, intelligence sources told the two newspapers.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 3 that the presidential administration was unaware of the U.S. warning.

"This is not our area of expertise," Peskov said, "as such information exchange usually takes place through the channels of the special services."

However, three days before the attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to acknowledge receiving the warnings, though he dismissed them as "provocative statements" by the West that were meant to "resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society."

Four gunmen stormed the concert hall outside of Moscow just before a concert, killing 144 people in the deadliest terrorist attack in Russia since 2004. The Islamic State, a designated terrorist group, quickly claimed responsibility for the attack.

The defense ministers of France and Russia discussed the attack in a rare phone call on April 3.

French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu told his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, that France had always been ready to face down "terrorism" and was prepared for "increased exchanges with the aim of fighting this threat as effectively as possible," a French Defense Ministry statement said.

Putin and other Russian officials and commentators have claimed without evidence that Ukraine might have played a role in the attack. Ukrainian officials have denied any involvement and have accused Moscow of using the tragedy to ramp up its war against their country.

Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia's SVR foreign-intelligence service, told Interfax on April 2 that the U.S. warning was "too general" to enable Russia to prevent the attack.

Putin said the same day that the organizers of the Crocus attack wanted "to sow seeds of discord and panic...in our country and bring Russia down from within."

He has previously accused the United States and other Western countries of pursuing similar goals. Putin urged law enforcement to identify the "ultimate criminal beneficiaries" of the attack.

The Crocus attack was a major failure for Russia's security forces, which critics say are focused on stifling domestic political dissent and opposition to the war against Ukraine, often prosecuting political opinions as "terrorism" or "extremism."

Reuters reported on April 1 that Iran, a Russian ally, also warned Moscow of a planned "terrorist operation" on Russian territory ahead of the Crocus attack.

On March 29, U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy accused Russian officials of misrepresenting the quality of the U.S. information.

"The written information was concrete, timely, and credible," she said in a statement on Telegram.

Russia's Defense Ministry on April 3 said military recruitment had jumped noticeably since the attack, with about 16,000 people reportedly signing military contracts in the previous 10 days.

"Most candidates indicated a desire to avenge those killed in the tragedy...as the main motive for concluding a contract," a ministry statement said.

Comment: Larry Johnson comments:

The 7 March warning from US Embassy Moscow was initiated in Washington, DC from State Department. Secretary of State Blinken signed off on it. And the nature of the warning shows that it was based on intelligence — i.e., from a human source and/or electronic intercept — that was considered "credible." It also had a high degree of specificity not normally seen in these types of warnings (at least what I have seen starting in October 1985 thru October 2016).

The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.

During the last 35 years I do not recall a single instance in which the State Department issued a warning like this specifying a specific time period for vigilance. The warning itself implies intelligence that provided a specific timeframe for the attack. So, when the attack does not happen, you need to go back to the analysts and ask, WTF!!! If the analysts had said, "Oh, wait, the Russians boosted security at the Crocus City Hall on 8 March and scared off the attack," then the next question should have been, "Do you still believe there will be another attempt?" The analysts could have said yes, no or maybe.

So, if you believe the intelligence is credible then it was incumbent on the USG to issue another warning to continue to avoid large gatherings, such as concert halls. The USG did not do that.

Nope. The USG is pushing the line that "We warned the Russians and they did not act." Sure looks like a psy-op to me designed to paint Putin as a heartless goon who ignored our intelligence. [...]

The "American intelligence experts" are misrepresenting what was publicly released. It did not say, "Starting from today, 7 March, extremists intend to attack large gatherings, including concerts; therefore American citizens should avoid these places until further notice." NOPE! Just for 48 hours. It is a very dangerous game that is being played here.

If a foreign nation warns you of a potential attack on a specific location and gives you a specific time period, how long should you be on the lookout? Another couple days, a week, a month, a year?

Moon of Alabama writes: "Putin dismissed the warning on March 19, nine days after it had exceeded its time horizon. The attack on the Crocus hall happened on March 22. There had been no new warning issued for that or any other day."