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The Government did not pay sufficient attention to the long-term collateral damage of lockdowns, a majority of British scientists surveyed believe.

A wide-ranging survey conducted by The Telegraph and Censuswide shows that nearly seven in ten (68 per cent) academics believe more consideration should have been given to the fallout caused by shutting down the country.

The views are in stark contrast to the public discourse at the height of the pandemic, when only a few dissenting scientific voices spoke out to highlight the health and economic risks from lockdowns.

While just over half (51 per cent) of scientists thought lockdowns were always proportionate and always justified, one third disagreed.

The survey also reveals that while 44 per cent of scientists believed pandemic modelling was "excellent" or "good", some 37 per cent thought it was "average", "poor", or "very poor".

Experts said the results show there was far less scientific consensus than the public was led to believe, and warned that many academics had felt unable to speak their mind at the time.

Scientists feared loss of patronage

Prof Robert Dingwall, a former government Covid adviser, from Nottingham Trent University, said: "It was always clear to those of us who were able to make evidence-based criticisms of 'official science' and government actions, that we enjoyed considerable tacit support in the scientific community.

"This was, however, muted by concerns about loss of patronage, access to research grants and difficulty in publication as the cost of speaking out.

"Others certainly paid a price for trying to voice loyal opposition. I don't blame anyone for keeping their head down if they had a career to build, a family to support or a preference for a quiet life."

Bob Seely, a Tory MP who during the pandemic spoke up against lockdowns, said: "At the time we were, understandably, focused on immediate risk.

"However, it was also clear that there was precious little thought as to the long-term damage to a society, especially in the development of young people. Schools should never have been shut. We are seeing a generation of young people damaged.

"There was too much politics from some scientists who were pushing a politicised agenda."

He added: "The lack of interest in the origins of the virus seems bizarre.

"My fear is that at very least, lockdown will be seen to have been an ineffective way of dealing with the crisis. The lack of an open and science-led conversation during the crisis was, I felt, disturbing."

A generation scarred

Last month, the World Bank warned that lockdown disruption to education would scar multiple generations of children who suffered serious developmental and learning delays.

NHS waiting lists soared to a record 7.8 million last September and there have been tens of thousands of extra non-Covid deaths since the pandemic, particularly among heart and cancer patients.

A study from University College London in February estimated that 12,000 years of life had been lost in Britain because of delays in diagnosing skin cancer during Covid lockdowns.

Gordon Wishart, chief medical officer at Check4Cancer, and visiting professor of cancer surgery at Anglia Ruskin University, repeatedly warned in 2020 and 2021 that delaying cancer diagnosis and treatment would lead to deaths, but said his fears were ignored.

"I did feel like my concerns were falling on deaf ears as far as the Government is concerned," he said.

"I have real concerns that we would not do anything different if we have another pandemic, as the Covid Inquiry did not seem that interested in identifying what went wrong with our approach, and how we would change it next time."

The Telegraph survey, taken between December and February by 198 scientists from universities across Britain, also showed that 70 per cent believed government decisions were not transparent or well communicated.
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Just three per cent thought all scientific views had been considered by the Government, while a third believed officials had focused on only a minority of opinions.

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Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at the University of Oxford, said it was important to prevent the "abuse and persecution" of scientists who were prepared to challenge the consensus.

"There are clearly systemic problems in academia that need to be addressed in order to permit a fuller debate of these critical issues," she said.

"In future, I hope universities and institutions like the Royal Society, as well as the government and the media, will see fit to put on more debates and allow dissenting voices to be heard."

The survey also showed that scientists are split over whether Covid-19 leaked from a laboratory, with the majority thinking that China has not been open and transparent about the origins of the disease.
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Around one third believe that gain-of-function experiments - which increase the potency of viruses and bacteria - could spark a pandemic, while the same number think the work could help prevent future outbreaks.

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Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, said: "I think the survey shows that people believe in the ability of science to answer questions but some of those experiments carry a risk and they need to be regulated.

"Now the dust is settling, hopefully people are allowed to have a balanced discussion."

The survey, which dealt with current contentious issues within science, also found that around six in 10 scientists think that sex is binary, while a similar number agree gender is fluid.
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Responding to the survey, a Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: "Throughout the pandemic, the Government acted to save lives and livelihoods, preventing the NHS being overwhelmed, and delivered a world-leading vaccine rollout which protected millions.

"We have always said there are lessons to be learnt from the pandemic and are committed to learning from the Covid-19 Inquiry's findings, which will play a key role in informing the Government's planning and preparations for the future."