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The Russian invasion of Crimea is not just a crisis for Ukraine. It is in danger of becoming as serious a crisis for the west as a whole, including the UKnited Kingdom. If Vladimir Putin succeeds in redrawing the map of Europe along ethnic lines, using military aggression to do so, we will have re-entered a phase of European history that we thought had ended in 1945.
It has been no secret that, since he came to power, Putin's strategic objective has been to reassert Russian control over its so-called near abroad. Since the days of Peter the Great, Russia has assumed that its own security has required it to control all the territory around its own borders.
Putin's objectives are not limited to Crimea. He has a passion to bring the whole of Ukraine under the ultimate authority of Moscow while acknowledging only its nominal independence.
But not just Ukraine. He finds equally unacceptable the independence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. He showed, in 2008, similar contempt for the independence of Georgia.
It is unthinkable that the western reaction to the invasion of Crimea by Russian troops should be restricted to rhetorical protest and a few symbolic gestures like the boycott of the G8 meeting. That will embolden Putin, and we will see, in due course, aggressive action against the Baltic states, further denial of Georgia's territorial integrity, and pressure to separate eastern Ukraine from the rest of that country.
Comparisons with the 1930s should not be exaggerated. Putin is no Hitler or Stalin. But the fact remains that the last time the alleged need to protect ethnic brethren was used as a justification for invasion and annexation in Europe was the Sudetenland, and the shame of the Munich Agreement in 1938.
A military response by the Nato powers to Russia's aggression would, of course, be a foolish escalation and is rightly not being contemplated. But it is precisely for that reason that we must be prepared to do anything else within our power that will bring home to Putin that he and Russia will pay a heavy and ongoing price if he does not respect Ukraine's territorial integrity and to withdraw Russian troops.
By all means let us spend the next few days in urgent and, if necessary, private diplomacy with Moscow to encourage Putin to back down without avoidable loss of face. We will soon see whether he has any intention of withdrawing his troops.
If the international community is to prevail, it must carry a credible stick. It is reported that the document that was photographed being taken into a meeting at No 10 advised the government against trade and financial sanctions. I hope that advice has not been accepted by the prime minister and his cabinet colleagues. Financial and trade sanctions are the real penalty the west can impose on Russia as it has so successfully imposed on Iran, thereby bringing them to the negotiating table.
Already the rouble has plunged in value. Russia's financial and business community will be appalled if the country now finds itself without access to the capital markets of the west and if it loses important trading opportunities. The Russian economy has become much weaker in recent months and Putin will not be thanked by his people if he is the cause of further economic hardship.
There is already evidence that Germany and perhaps Britain are nervous about economic sanctions because they might hurt our own trade and economic interests. They might, but the effect would be marginal in both Germany and Britain. Germany would not find it difficult to import the gas and oil it buys from Russia from elsewhere. Refusing Russia access to the City of London for the time being would have minimal long-term implications for the UK's financial sector. For Russia, however, such action by the United States and Europe would be a serious and ongoing punishment for an economy that is already weak and in decline.
In addition, there must be other consequences that Russia will not like. The Baltic states are already in Nato. We must emphasise that the full weight of mutual defence under Article 5 of the Nato treaty will be available to help them if they face Russian aggression.
Without offering Georgia Nato membership, we must nevertheless intensify our defence assistance to them, and make them a serious partner of the west. We must mean what we say when we promise economic support for Ukraine and ensure that both the IMF and the EU do all they can to assist, both financially and in respect of trade access.
Such help may have cost implications for the UK and other western countries, but we are strong economies in contrast to those of both eastern Europe and Russia itself. It will be a small sacrifice in comparison to the calamitous damage that will be done to the future security of Europe as a whole if we cannot rise above mere rhetoric.
President Obama needs to provide leadership at this time. But so do Angela Merkel, David Cameron, and other European leaders. If they do so, we will have a peaceful and just resolution of this crisis. If they do not, Putin will quite rightly hold the west in contempt, and we will all have to live with the consequences.
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