Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto had no possibility of rigging the 2013 Election

1. Since President Mwai Kibaki took power in a democratic election in 2002, and after stealing Raila's Presidency in 2007, the Mount Kenya Kikuyu mafia cartel has presided over a litany of corruption scandals, some of which have been well documented. The Helicopter scandal, the Anglo Leasing scandal, the Tritton scandal, the Chatter Bank scandal, the Computer error scandal and a host of others are too fresh in the minds of Kenyans. The Kikuyu mafia fears that once Raila takes over, these scandals will be re-opened because although detailed investigations were done and Reports submitted, no one was ever brought to book.

2. The military Generals have been the most notorious in looting the Kenyan economy through the so called military contracts. In the name of "security concerns", these contracts, worth billions of Kenyan shillings, have been closed to public scrutiny. The Generals have literally become billionaires through these contracts and the fear is that if Raila takes over power, it will mean an end to stealing of Tax payer's money through secretive contracts which Kibaki has been tolerating. Raila must therefore be kept at bay even if it means rigging elections repeatedly and using the crudest methods available in the book.

3. Kenya is a country of land grabbers with the biggest land grabber being Uhuru Kenyatta's family which owns land the size of Nyanza province, home to more than 6 million people. With out-going President Mwai Kibaki featuring prominently in the land-grabbing list, and with former Dictator Daniel arap Moi on the list of the top three land grabbers in Kenya, the Mount Kenya mafia fears that once Raila takes over power, the land that has ever been grabbed by thieves will be taken over to be owned by Kenyans. This fear is so strong that during a meeting at State House, Kibaki is reported to have given the NSIS all powers "to do anything" to ensure that Raila does not take over power. Apart from grabbed land being confiscated if Raila takes over, the Mafia fears prosecution especially in cases where land grabbing can be proven. For this reason, the Mafia is reported to have taken an oath in Gatundu to the effect that Raila will never become President of Kenya.

4. The National Security Intelligence Services (NSIS) is an institution which has been above the law since it was set up to replace the defunct Special Branch which was set up by Moi to terrorise Kenyans. Through various death squads like the Kwe Kwe Squad, the Flying Squad and other merchants of death, NSIS has been involved in the execution of thousands of Kenyans seen as opponents of the government. Although some of these executions came to public notice (like the Kangara and Oulu assassinations) hundreds of others remain shrouded in secrecy. The Fear is that once Raila takes power, the NSIS will be brought to account with its top bosses (past and present) being brought to face justice. Within the NSIS, the fear of Raila is reported to be so huge that the Mafia cartel currently in charge of the State machine, has vowed not to hand over power to Agwambo. Apart from their loss of jobs, the consequences of their past actions scare them to death because every time the possibility of Raila coming to power is mentioned, these thieves and murderers see themselves in prison, probably for life in case they escape the death penalty for killing innocent civilians.

5. Just like any Kenyan fool will tell you, members of the Kikuyu Mafia cartel have taken over every key State institution which matters in the wielding of power. Name it - the Chief of Intelligence (NSIS), the Chief of the Army, Chief of Police (Police Commissioner), Chief of the terror gang known as General Service Unit (GSU), the Attorney General, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance etc are all occupied by Kikuyus. The fear is that once Raila takes power, the Mafia cartel will lose these positions which, they fear, will be distributed to members of other communities. In short, the Kikuyu mafia fear the advent of real democracy if Raila comes to power. For this reason, election has to be rigged and Raila has to be kept away from State House as much as possible.

6. Obviously, both Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto had no possibility of rigging the 2013 elections. The Election was specifically rigged by the NSIS in collaboration with the Police Commissioner and the Chief of the Military in cahoots with other conspirators. The agenda was to maintain the status quo once Kibaki quits and the strategy was to rig through the electronic system. This strategy failed, forcing the riggers to turn to the manual system. The fear now is that if Raila takes over, the riggers will all be in trouble because IEBC will have to be answerable. Issack Hassan, Chairman of IEBC, is currently protected by the Mafia but once Raila takes over, the fear is that Hassan will begin to talk (yap) like a radio with new batteries. The whole plot will come in the open and the criminals fear that they will be brought to face the law. For this reason, the Mafia has sworn that they will never allow Raila to take power in Kenya, even in the face of blood-shed.

7. Much of the stolen tax payer's money is in Kenya because the thieves understood long time that Wazungu might detain their loot if they transport them abroad. The looting of the economy has been such that money stolen from the Central Bank and other institutions are stored in go-downs across the country. The looters have been unable to bank the money abroad for fear of it being discovered and confiscated while they have also been afraid of banking the loot in Kenyan banks for fear that in case of a regime change, they could lose big time. This left them with go-downs as the only option and the amount runs into billions. In one of its Reports, the Mars Group led by Mwalimu Mati says that between 2009 and 2010 (when Uhuru was finance Minister), the amount of money that could not be accounted for stood at Ksh 715 billion. This is why Uhuru has been able to buy anybody who can help further the Kikuyu mafia agenda. If Raila takes over, the fear is that all the looting and storage of the loot in go-downs will come out in the open. For this reason, Raila must not seize power.

8. The Kikuyu mafia knows that if they lose power this time around, it might take decades before power comes back on the hands of the Kikuyu ruling class. The reason is that the Kikuyu and their Kalenjin collaborators combined have no numbers to win an election against the 40 ethnic groups in Kenya. The Mafia understands too well that they can only retain power through rigging. Since they control the State machine, rigging elections has now been possible in two consecutive elections. In order to maintain Kikuyu hold on power, elections must be rigged then the rest can be taken care of. This is the Kikuyu mafia philosophy. The Mafia cartel view Raila as the only politician in Kenya today who can open the door of power to other communities. If this happens, the Kikuyu mafia understands that it will be impossible for another Kikuyu to come to power in the next 100 years (or more) unless ideological politics (as opposed to ethnic politics) is introduced in Kenya. For this reason, Raila must be kept out of power by all means necessary.

9. Both Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto are currently facing charges at the ICC and for them, seizing power by any means is a way of political survival. The fear that haunts both Uhuru and Ruto is that in case Raila takes over power, they will easily be handed over to the ICC to face trial with the possibility that they will be found guilty and locked in The Hague jails for life. This is the ultimate nightmare scenario for both Uhuru and Ruto. For the two suspects, there is nothing they will fail to do as long as they can seize power because not doing so will be tantamount to political suicide. This is why even though all indications are that elections were stolen, the two have not come forward to call for a re-run since they know that they will lose to Raila in any repeat election. The strong understanding that Uhuru is no match to Raila is what motivated NSIS to rig elections to facilitate an Uhuru win in round one after Mutahi Ngunyi, the self-styled commentator, was roped in to prepare the way through his "Tyrany of Numbers" gimmick which fell flat on its face.

10. The final reason why Mount Kenya Mafia is opposed to a Raila Presidency is because he is popular among the people of Kenya. The problem with Raila's popularity is that millions of Kenyans are likely to give him support in any move to dismantle the old and rotten Kikuyu power structure in Kenya. It is easy to deal with a leader who is not liked by the people but when it comes to a leader whom majority of citizens view as their true leader, the situation becomes complicated. For this reason, the Kikuyu Mafia are in panic mode.

The army has failed severally to keep rejects in power

Despite their opposition to Raila Odinga because of narrow selfish interests and the need to maintain the status quo, it is highly unlikely that the Kikuyu mafia will be able to manage an angry population which feel cheated out of its rightful leader. This Mafia does not understand what awaits them in case they try to force Uhuru on Kenyans. They believe that since they have the police, the army, the military and the Intelligence, they will be able to manage the situation.

Their short-sightedness rests on their inability to understand the well-tested fact that the security apparatus on the hands of a tiny thieving elite might not be able to deal with a nation-wide civil disobedience, mass uprising or a mass insurrection because these are the possible methods of struggle likely to be adopted by the masses of the Kenyan people if they are convinced that the Kikuyu ruling class is playing games to keep Raila out of power.

Usually, the army (which is deemed to be the strongest unit of the security machine) can deal with an isolated riotous situation in a town or city. When the problem is country-wide, it is usually just a matter of time before the masses take over their country. That is in case the United Nations does not vote for a direct military intervention in case the army begins to kill civilians.

Hosni Mubarak had a whole army on his side for years but he had to quit because of mass pressure. His best friend for decades, the Americans, abandoned him and sided with the people, telling him to quit. Saddam Hussein had his trusted Republican Guards who never fired a shot as Saddam was being overthrown. The Yugoslav army could not stop the splitting of the country while in the former USSR, the biggest army in the world could not stop the masses from getting their way when the time came. The late Hugo Chavez was overthrown by a CIA-led military coup but the people re-instated him to power after overriding the army. How does the Kikuyu Mafia expect to get their way if the people of Kenya want Raila Odinga to take over the Presidency?

As days go by, the situation in Kenya will remain complicated. If the Kenyan Intelligence does not think hard for the Mount Kenya Mafia, the whole gang might end up joining both Uhuru and Ruto at the ICC in the coming future. This is because it is very unlikely that millions of Kenyans will accept a President forced on them unless the Mafia is ready to kill all Kenyans who are not Kikuyus and Kalenjins using security forces. These are hard times for Kenya but unfortunately, it is now or never. The country is no longer on the precipice but on the edge of a deep abyss.

Okoth Osewe
Secretary General
Kenya Red Alliance (KRA)