In previous articles I've highlighted the worrying rise in deaths from heart failure. This article adds deaths from both cirrhosis (liver damage) and diabetes to the 'watch' list.

Using data from the Department of Health Improvement and Disparities (DHID) website I've compared the expected number of deaths from the end of March to the end of September 2020, with the registered number of deaths for the commensurate 28 weeks in 2023.

The data cover 14 causes of death. In Figure 1 you can see that the increase in deaths from heart failure at 26% leads the field, but it's closely followed by cirrhosis and other liver diseases at 22% and diabetes deaths at 19%.

changes in registered deaths
Figure 1
A very good question would be why I'm comparing 2023 actuals with 2020 expected numbers, rather those for 2023. The answer is that the expected levels are calculated as an average of prior years, so, if you have a rising trend the average goes up progressively. The net result of this 'inflationary' pressure is to understate the increase or decrease in deaths over the coming years. This results in the classic 'frog boiling' as things progressively, though imperceptibly worsen.

In the following charts I've separated out the 'inflationary' increase from the 'excess'. In that way it's apparent that the overall changes from 2020 are far more significant than the reported level.

Figure 2 shows that 29,582 people were expected to die from heart disease in the 28 weeks from the end of March to the end of September 2020. In 2023 the expected level of deaths had increased by 2,027, a 7% jump. In the event, in 2023 a further 5,539 people died of heart failure, these are the 'excess deaths'.

changes in expected deaths heart failure
Figure 2
So, in 2023, from the end of March to the end of September a total of 37,148 deaths from heart failure were registered (7,566 + 29,582). That's 19% higher than the 2023 expected level but 26% higher than the expected level in 2020 number. Extrapolate 7,566 deaths from 28 to 52 weeks and we see that we're on target for over 14,000 extra deaths from heart failure.

Deaths from cirrhosis also show a 7% 'inflationary' increase and a further 15% 'excess' deaths on top of that. A 22% increase in deaths from cirrhosis seems like an awful lot! Cirrhosis is a fairly slow burn condition. Another un-foreseen consequence of lockdown?

changes in expected deaths cirrhosis
Figure 3
Diabetes shows a total increase of 19% over the 2020 expected number of deaths. Some 12% of this increase is 'inflationary' with a further 7% being recorded as 'excess' this year.

changes in expected deaths diabetes
Figure 4
Again, let's extrapolate that 5,060 extra deaths to 52 weeks and we see that we're on schedule for over 9,000 extra deaths from diabetes. Add the 14,000 extra heart failure deaths to the 3,000 cirrhosis deaths and the 9,000 diabetes deaths and that's over 26,000 excess deaths from these three conditions alone.

The purpose of these charts is to highlight that it's important to look behind the headlines. A headline that deaths from diabetes are up 7% may not set the pulses racing, but when it's put in context of a 19% increase over three years then you just might sit up and take some notice, and if you're at risk, do something about it!

Finally, let's look at cancer deaths. Cancer has been making the headlines of late. We've had both Professor Angus Dalgleish and Professor Karol Sikora flagging up concerns over cancer but from rather different positions. Dalgleish attributes harm in part to the vaccines themselves, whereas Sikora has consistently pointed to the 'non-pharmaceutical interventions' leading to delays in diagnosis and treatment as being the true villains of the piece.

However, as Figure 5 demonstrates, there's been very little change in cancer deaths, just 2.3% up on the 2020 expected level. Indeed, registered deaths during our 28 week 2023 period have been 381 lower than the expected level.

changes in expected deaths cancer
Figure 5
What does all this tell us? Heart failure, cirrhosis, diabetes and cancer are all linked to lifestyle choices. We know that mRNA can cause heart problems, indeed Pfizer themselves warn about myocarditis, Figure 6 is taken from its website; one wonders how many school-age kids were warned of this association with myocarditis before giving their 'informed' consent to getting vaccinated?

pfizer myocarditis warning
Figure 6
However, the significant increases in cirrhosis and diabetes may well indicate that it's been the unintended consequences of lockdown that's had the most impact as people's lifestyle choices became increasingly harmful.

Lifestyle, vaccines or failures in medical care, the legacy of the over-reaction to Covid will continue to reverberate for years to come.