In a
previous article we argued that
to determine the overall risk-benefit of Covid-19 vaccines it is crucial to be able to compare the all-cause mortality rates between the vaccinated and unvaccinated in each different age category. However, current publicly available UK Government statistics do not include raw data on mortality by age category and vaccination status. Hence, we are unable to make the necessary comparison. In a
new paper we explain how we attempted to reverse engineer estimates of mortality by age category and vaccination status from the various relevant public Government datasets; unfortunately, we found numerous discrepancies and inconsistencies which indicate that
the Office for National Statistics reports on vaccine effectiveness are grossly underestimating the number of unvaccinated people. Hence, official statistics may be
underestimating the mortality rates for vaccinated people in each age category. Although we have not subjected this data to statistical testing, the potential implications of these results on the effects of vaccination on all-cause mortality, and by implication, the future of the vaccination programme is profound.
The new paper
Martin Neil, Norman Fenton and Scott McLachlan (2021), "Discrepancies and inconsistencies in UK Government datasets compromise accuracy of mortality rate comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated", http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32817.10086
For those without access to ResearchGate, the paper is also
here.
Comment: From Neil et al.'s conclusions:
Our analysis has discovered that over 10 million people are missing from the PHE/ONS analysis and 1,236 deaths that occurred during week 26 are also missing. The vaccination status of this group is unknown. Furthermore, by reverse engineering the estimates from other ONS sources we have discovered that the PHE/ONS mortality report is underestimating the number of vaccinated people, from an approximate total of 39 million, by over 2 million people. Similarly, we believe the ONS may be underestimating the number of single dose vaccinated people by just over four hundred thousand. Given this, there is the possibility that as many as 22 million people, in week 26, were unvaccinated rather than the 9.5 million reported.
Our analysis clearly suggests that, when compared to ONS death figures from week 26, all-cause mortality (UMR) for vaccinated people, compared to unvaccinated people, is certainly higher in single dosed individuals and slightly higher in those who are double dosed.
Any analysis that relied solely on the PHE/ONS mortality data would be systematically biased by the fact that it would be conditioned on the available data, and how it is queried from available databases, rather than on the prevailing vaccination status of the population at large. In attempting to reverse engineer estimates of mortality by age category and vaccination status from the various relevant ONS datasets we found numerous discrepancies and inconsistencies which indicate that the PHE/ONS reports on vaccine effectiveness are grossly underestimating the number of unvaccinated people.
The truth ?!?!?