Definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts warns of scorching 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year - and that isn't the worst case, it's business as usual!
If humanity stays near our current greenhouse gas emissions path, then Americans face hell - every state will be red.
The thermometer in this landmark U.S. government report puts warming at 9 to 11°F over the vast majority of the inland U.S. - and that is only the average around 2090 (compared to 1961-1979 baseline). On this emissions path, the IPCC's A2 scenario, most of the inland United States will be warming about 1°F a decade by century's end
. Worse, we are on pace to exceed the A2 scenario (which is "only" about 850 ppm in 2100): See U.S. media largely ignores latest warning from climate scientists: "Recent observations confirm ... the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised" - 1000 ppm (Link
So this part of my not-so-well-funded analysis appears to hold up well: "Yes, the science says on our current emissions path we are projected to warm most of U.S. 10 - 15°F by 2100." (Link
But I'm getting ahead of the story. On Tuesday at 1:30 PM, the US Global Change Research Program is releasing its long-awaited analysis of Global Climate Change Impacts in United States
with NOAA as lead agency.
But impatient CP readers need look no further than here for the third draft of the report, which has been online since April 27. That's where I got the figure above from. [You can see the letters F and T from "DRAFT" stamped across the figure. I'll update this post with the final figures when they are online
How hot will it be? Here's another stunning figure from the report:
The average number of days per year when the maximum temperature exceeded 90°F from 1961-1979 (top) and the projected number of days per year above 90°F by the 2080s and 2090s for lower emissions (middle [550 ppm]) and higher emissions (bottom). Much of the southern United States is projected to have more than twice as many days per year above 90°F by the end of this century.
Look at Kansas. By 2090, it'll be above 90°F some 120 days a year - more than the entire summer
. Much of Florida and Texas will be above 90°F for half the year. These won't be called heat waves anymore. It'll just be the "normal" climate.
Again, this isn't news to CP readers. Last July I summarized the very modest U.S. "heat wave" literature as follows (see "When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?
Bottom line: By century's end, extreme [i.e. peak] temperatures of up to 122°F would threaten most of the central, southern, and western U.S. Even worse, Houston and Washington, DC could experience temperatures exceeding 98°F for some 60 days a year.
So this is truly Hell - to match the High Water: Greenland ice sheet melting faster than expected and could raise East Coast sea levels an extra 20 inches by 2100 - to more than 6 feet
The time to act is long past.
I will have much more to blog on this essential report this week.
Definitive NOAA-led report
Americans face hell
landmark U.S. government report
projected to warm most of U.S. 10 - 15°F by 2100
twice as many days per year above 90°F
it'll be above 90°F some 120 days a year
temperatures of up to 122°F would threaten most of the central, southern, and western U.S
East Coast sea levels an extra 20 inches by 2100 - to more than 6 feet
Joe Romm has outdone himself in this article. Joe is normally one of the most extreme global warming alarmists on the planet, but his identification with global warming appears to be so out of control that one has to wonder how it is possible for him, for anyone, to be so psychologically out of touch with reality.
Just a look at some recent posts from SOTT shows the northern hemisphere summer is in jeopardy. Crop failure and global food shortage is becoming more probable with each passing week. And not due to global warming, but Global Cooling
What will it take to exorcise the psychological demons from the global warming extremists that are terrorizing the global population and determining the fate of global governmental policy?
The scenario currently with a high probability of coming to be is one of global cooling, food shortages and fuel shortages. Governmental AGW policy which will result in higher food costs and higher fuel costs in a time of socially engineered depression is a formula for disaster. It is a very real scenario that the data is pointing to on an almost daily basis.
Here is a sampling of recent news on crops:Cold puts Western Canada crops behind schedule
Crops may be at risk - Canada frosts the most widespread in recent memory
Canadian Wheat Output May Fall on Dry, Cool Weather
US: Arkansas Soybean Planting Slowed by Persistent Wetness
US: Not Enough Sunshine, Too Much Rain In Midwest Corn
Poor Spring Weather Lowers Canadian Canola Production Estimate
Crops Under Stress as Temperatures Fall
Southeastern Missouri farmers try to overcome wet spring, soggy crops
Canada and USA agricultural weather issues and changes in our solar cycles
US Winter Wheat Production Lower In Virtually Every State
First Ever Ice Wine in Brazil
And this on food prices:Concerns mount over sharp rise in food costs
A sampling of current summer weather:Alberta, Saskatchewan get snow in June
Dickinson North Dakota June snowfall first since 1951
Great British summer goes from sweltering to shivering in just a week
North America Jet Stream, Recent Pattern is Unusual
UK Met Office Summer Forecast: Drowning Again?
Two months of rain in half a day in Britain
Wales: Freak storm brings Newtown to a standstill
Australia: Cold weather smashes records
US: Texas storms flood, cancel flights, shut off power
Canada: Winter still grips 90 per cent of north - migratory birds can't breed
Many forecasters have one word for this summer: COOL
Freak Beijing storm turns day into night
June Winter Wonderland In New Jersey
An exceptionally soggy June for many in US
Recent articles about the state of the sun:Spotless Sun, new 'Baby Grand' milestone has arrived
Cooler decades ahead, researcher says
Still More on Diminished Solar Activity and Global Cooling
Solar cycle computer model with 98 percent forecasting accuracy a complete failure
Sunspot Minimum at Hand
Romm's Global Warming Fairy Tales
Comment On Joe Romm's Weblog On El Nino and Global Warming
A look at: Solar Wind Flow Pressure - Another Indication of Solar Downtrend?
Little Ice Age II, The Sequel?
A Cheshire Cat - Will Sunspots disappear entirely by 2015?
Mystery of the Missing Sunspots, Solved?
The above links are just a sampling of what is going on, all the while the global warming agenda is being intensified with a veritable onslaught of mass media and governmental promotion worldwide. Nearly simultaneously the US government and the UK government are releasing reports with skewed and discredited data that even exceeds the psychological manipulation utilized by the United Nations IPCC global warming contrived models.
The sun is in a deep slumber. The mid latitudes of both the northern and southern hemispheres are cooling. The great atmospheric conveyors of water vapor are becoming chaotic and may be shifting further from the tropics. Atmospheric particulates may be increasing from volcanic and meteoric dust. The US government has cut off data streams of incoming meteoric atmospheric explosions.
And the masses have nary a clue as to what is going on as they consume what is spoon fed to them by the great leadership of the world and its right hand man - mass media.
Joe Romm, Al Gore, Michael Mann, Eric Steig, the IPCC, GISS, Hadley Centre, Vicky Pope, Kofi Annan, Prince Charles, Barack Obama, ... Will these people be held responsible if the planet continues to cool, if their is massive crop failure, if people are freezing from lack of fuel and starving from lack of food?
The longer this goes on, the more difficult it is going to be to keep the average person from looking out the window or to keep the average person from noticing what is missing from the dinner table.