The development of a major blocking high pressure system over the north atlantic and its subsequent backing west is about to throw most of Europe into the coldest winter weather pattern in many a year. In fact, Temps over the next month or so are liable to average 6-10 degrees F below normal over the center part of the continent with the northwest coldest last, but still getting into the games. Intuitive with this is the likelihood of more than normal snow and ice. As the upper block backs west, arctic discharges from the north and east are liable to bring shots of severe cold back into England and with it enhanced snowfall.

While it has been "chilly" so far, what is about to come is the worst in many a winter, perhaps the sign that the warm AMO is reaching its maturity. The US winter has been much like those around 1950 which was the benchmark winter in the pac northwest of the US and was the warning shot that the warm cycle of the 30s 40s and 50s was starting its end game. It should be comforting to people worried that we are pushing our planet over the edge that things that happened before are happening again, though the discomfort caused by cold is a big problem

I wish to point out, with no malice intended, that the two countries who have major scientific organizations that have been pushing the global warming idea, Britain and the UKMET and the US with NOAA have been burned by the cold that has developed here. NOAA had a December forecast for a warm central US for November that they were forced to revise and the UKMET forecast for a rather bland winter for Europe speaks for itself. Its anything but bland, whether it averages out near the average or not, because what is coming has not been seen in years.

Now that could mean that its testimony to how warm it is... it hasnt been seen in years. But the fact it hasnt disappeared completely, the fact it is coming back and catching people off guard (hopefully not you) means there is no rout on, but plenty of doubt. If an enemy is vanquished, it should not be able to launch attacks of this magnitude.


The period we are looking at here has not yet started. The block is forming over Scandinavia, and this will back toward Greenland and as it does, the pattern will reverse so we are looking at much colder weather to end this month and carry well into January. On the table are strong low-level east winds into England with snow there, but the evolution of this is still occurring, and in fact it's warm now. However, the reason for the post is to say the most impressive two- to four-week cold period of any recent winter for the continent on the whole is on the way. Patience, grasshopper, patience.