First of all, he demonstrated to the world that Moscow is ready to follow the Geneva agreement on de-escalation of tension in Ukraine. This allows for reducing the risk of new sanctions against Russia: now Washington will have to work even harder convincing Europe to continue their economic pressure. In witness of this fact, the market reaction was very positive: the euro dropped below 49 rubles, the dollar - below 35, and stocks rose by 5%.
Besides, Putin induces Ukrainian coup government to react. Up to now, Kiev's strategy was plain and simple: escalation of violence, confrontation with Russia and constant complaints to Washington and Brussels. This time the Russian president complicated the matter: Kiev will have to respond to Moscow's suggestions. And if Putin's plan works out, the junta will either bury itself or deescalate the situation and consider federalization. Both variants are fine with Russia.
Let's consider the major points of the Russian president. He shelved the referendum: "We are calling for southeast Ukraine representatives, supporters of federalization of the country, to postpone the May 11 referendum to create the necessary conditions for dialogue."
Putin's statement shouldn't be considered as a refusal to defend Donbass and support its separatists. Firstly, he actually bound the cancellation of the referendum to the cessation of "anti-terrorist operations": "A mandatory condition to start this dialogue is to stop all violence - both with the use of armed forces, which is absolutely unacceptable, and illegal armed groups of radical elements." By this statement he put Kiev in a very uncomfortable position. It is known that on May 6, Rada voted against the dialogue, refused holding the decentralization referendum and cast the communist party, the only one which insists on the dialogue, away from the session. Now Rada will have to either change its position and overcome its russo-phobia or take public responsibility for confronting Putin's peaceful solution. Note that international community members, including the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and OCSE Chair, supported Russia's demand: "To stop violence and fire it would be important for top-level officials and persons bearing political responsibility to reject violence and stop all armed actions, intimidations and provocations," said Didier Burkhalter. Russia will benefit from whatever reaction of Kiev to this.
Secondly, it is only Kiev now who will have to react to Putin's statement: federalists don't have to listen to Russian president. The People's Republic of Donetsk is not part of the Russian Federation, so if they still decide to hold referendum, it won't be easy to blame Putin for this. Moreover, the President didn't mentioned any sanctions for failing to follow his request and didn't promise not to recognize the referendum results, if any. That's why the federalists, who got Putin's message, have already set forth conditions to Kiev under which they would be ready to refuse the referendum: "Immediate termination of "anti-terrorist operations," as well as military and police troop withdrawal to their permanent garrisons; dissolution and disarmament of all illegal armed groups (all armed groups created after February 21 to be deemed illegal, including the National Guard and special police battalions); release of all political prisoners, including those who were arrested under falsified accusations," said Rada Deputy Oleg Tsarev.
Now let's turn to Putin's statement regarding the president elections. Saying that "presidential elections are a move in the right direction," he demonstrated to the West and Kiev that Moscow is not going to confront the elections and is possibly even ready to accept the results. But he also noted that "the elections will not solve the problem, if all Ukrainian citizens do not have their rights guaranteed after such elections... We suggest that direct dialogue between Kiev and South-East is the major key to a positive solution." Some political scientists consider this statement as a demand to adopt a new constitution. They also suppose that Moscow has possibly reached an agreement with the West that the elections should be postponed. Thus, Putin didn't ask federalists to participate in the elections. Now he is free to maneuver. If the rights of the federalists will not be guaranteed, Moscow is free to protest.
In conclusion, Putin said that Russia withdrew its troops. "We are being told all the time that there are Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. We pulled back the troops, and they are currently stationed not on the Ukrainian border, but on the locations where they conduct their regular exercises on range grounds," he said. Thereby Putin pursued one very rational task. Moscow has never intended intervention, which would certainly entail rough sanctions and political consequences, not to mention a fratricidal war. Intervention is the last instrument to be used for supporting federalists. And now, it seems, other instruments work well. If the Ukrainian army couldn't defeat the rebels during several weeks, it can hardly do it now. In this situation it is politically and economically ineffective to have troops on the Ukrainian border.
Kiev understands Putin's play and tries to neutralize his statements by any means. "It ill becomes you to deal in hot air, Mr. Putin, for you are a president of a large country. If Russia asks to postpone some referendum planned for May 11, I must inform the Russian president that no such referendum has ever been planned. If terrorists and separatists who are supported by Russia got orders to postpone what hadn't been planned, that's their internal issue," Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said. Nevertheless, if Putin's statement has been agreed upon with Europe (which is very likely), Kiev is to wait in silence to learn its fate.
Translation by SOTT.net
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