Raul Castro may have potentially made a fatal mistake that risks destroying everything the Cuban Revolution built over the past half century. By entering into a deal with the US, he's letting the wily Color Revolution fox into the hen house, and he's also betraying his multipolar Russian ally at the same time.
© AFP Photo/Yamil Lage
Cuban President Raul Castro.
Havana and Washington entered into a surprise deal yesterday to historically restore their relations after engaging in a high-profile prisoner swap. Nobody was expecting such a major development to occur, making many wonder how such an impactful decision could be kept under wraps for so long.
The reason being was likely that the US understood what a major hemispheric power play this was and wanted to do everything to safeguard its secret strategy. On the contrary, Cuba, whether its leadership realizes it or not, has everything to lose, and it's clear from the details that Washington was 'negotiating' from a position of strength. While Raul may have thought he could outmaneuver the imminent Color Revolution attempt that will occur after Fidel's death, he may have actually committed a Yanukovich-esque tactical mistake by trying to enter into agreement with the same forces obsessed with his ouster.
Before diving in to the nitty-gritty of Raul's decision, it is necessary to quickly take an overview of two monumental lessons of the past few years that should not have been lost on any global leader:
The Gaddafi Gamble:
The Libyan leader thought that he could safeguard his state by getting rid of his weapons of mass destruction without a Great Power negotiating on his side (as Russia did for Syria), but in reality, he unwittingly sold his country out.
The Yanukovich "Yes!":
By saying "Yes!" to working with the Color Revolutionary forces inside the country, Yanukovich guaranteed that his days would be numbered from then on out.
Raul somehow managed to not learn any of these lessons and risks the colossal mistake of abrogating both of them.
Cuba is suspected of having some type of limited biological weapons program, although the true extent of it is unknown. Nonetheless, if Cuba does have some element of this (which the US has accused it of), then it's all but assured that it was a bargaining chip in the deal with the US. Although it is only speculative at the time, it could be that the US changed its regime change precondition for the restoration of ties to an ultimatum over getting rid of that Cuba's bioweapons program. If this was the case, the Raul's fate will be as good as Gaddafi's.