Understanding what drives the revolution that is destroying the American republic gives insight into how the 2020 election's results may impact its course. Its practical question —
who rules? — is historically familiar. But any revolution's quarrels and stakes obscure the question:
to what end? Our revolution is by the ruling class — a revolution from above. Crushing obstacles to its growing oligarchic rule is the proximate purpose.
But the logic that drives the revolution aims at civilization itself.What follows describes how far along its path that logic has taken America, and where it might take us in the future depending on the election's outcome.
Regime ChangeAristotle, in Book 5 of the
Politics, describes how revolutions kill regimes (such as America's) that balance the contrasting interests of ordinary people with those of the wealthy, of officials, and of other prominent persons. As the balance between any complex regime's components shifts over time,
the system may seamlessly transform into unmixed democracy, oligarchy, or some kind of monarchy. The revolution may be barely perceptible — providing that those who impose themselves, whether from above or below, do so without adding insult to injury.
But, if the party that takes power thereby destroys the friendship that had bound the several parts, even trifling incidents can spiral into all-consuming violence. Thucydides' account of the revolution that destroyed Corcyra during the Peloponnesian War is prototypical. The French revolution, the Spanish civil war, and countless others echo it. Today, the oligarchic transformation of America's republic is turning violent. Aristotle, however, points out that
oligarchies born of violent revolution tend to succumb to the very violence that births them, quickly degenerating into some kind of tyranny or one-man rule. Restoration of anything like the original constitutional regime is most unlikely.
Comment: See also: Pro-western liberal, anti-migrant nationalist, or political opportunist: Who exactly is Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny?