© NOAA/NASA Algae overload: Lake Erie algal bloom 2011. NOAA/NASA
Over the
past two decades, scientists have developed ways to predict how ecosystems will react to changing environmental conditions. Called
ecological forecasts, these emerging tools, if used effectively, can help reduce pollution to our waterways.
Dead zone and toxic algae forecasts are similar to weather and climate forecasts. They can provide near-term predictions of ecosystem
responses to short-term drivers such as this year's nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. They can also be used in scenarios to analyze the impacts of controlling those drivers in the future.These particular forecasts are important because when they match actual events well, they build confidence in using the models to guide policy and management decisions. Doing these forecasts annually also provides a regular check on whether these problems are being resolved.
While knowing the extent and location of these ecosystem conditions could allow decision-makers to adapt their management decisions, current ecological forecasts - at least those related to dead zones and toxic algae - are not sufficiently tuned in space and time to support that scale of adaptive management. Hopefully, someday they will be. In the meantime, their use provides powerful reminders of unsolved problems.
Comment: One of the things that those who promote vegetarian diets often overlook or refuse to consider is the devastating effects that agriculture has on the soils and waterways. Far from being a benign choice, it has had devastating consequences for both the health of populations and the planet. For more information on the destructive nature of industrial agriculture listen to the SOTT interview with Lierre Keith: Dissecting the Vegetarian Myth.