© Colonial ProductionsPromotional poster for the 1950 film 'The Flying Saucer.'
According to an organization that tracks UFO reports, this summer has been an especially busy period for UFO sightings. The Mutual UFO Network (MUFON) noted that sightings increased over the past six weeks, with some states more than doubling their normal numbers.
Are we on the cusp of an alien invasion? Or maybe people just have more time on their hands to spot - and report - strange things in the sky?
"It's pretty exciting," said Clifford Clift, the international director of MUFON. "When you average 500 a month [nationwide] and go to 1,013 in one month, that's an interesting spike in sighting reports."
Clift told Life's Little Mysteries that he's not sure what to make of the data at this point. It could be the start of something big, or it could merely be a computer glitch that accidentally counted some reports twice. Another possibility is that we're simply in the midst of a "UFO flap," one of many periodic increases in sightings over the years.
There are several reasons
UFOs might appear in flaps, or clusters. One is that objects in the sky are usually seen by many people, especially when they
appear over urban areas. UFOs typically don't hover close to Earth or in someone's back yard; instead, they are often sighted high in the sky - just far enough away so that we can't see details or get sharp photos. Thus, whatever a particular UFO really is - a plane, a comet, an extraterrestrial spacecraft, or something else - that one object or strange light in the sky could trigger hundreds, or even thousands, of reports. And even reports of the same object will probably differ depending on the reporter's perspective.
Thus, if there were hundreds of UFO reports in a state during a given period, it's important to know how those reports were categorized because it might mean hundreds of different UFOs were sighted by single individuals, or that one UFO was sighted by hundreds of people.
There are also psychological and social explanations. Sightings are often fueled by the mass media; people read about mysterious things or see TV shows about them, and interest or concern about them spreads from person to person. It's not that anyone is hoaxing or making up sightings: Research has shown that if you tell people what to look for (a phenomenon called "priming"), people will often see what they are looking for - whether those things exist or not.
As Clift noted, "It's likely that the media and [alien-themed] movies that are coming out, like
Apollo 18 and
Paul, are piquing people's interest in UFOs." People hear about UFOs, and for a while they tend to look at the sky more often, wondering if they might have their own sighting. And precisely because people are spending more time looking at the sky, they will for the first time notice (normal) lights and objects that have always been there.
So it may not be that UFOs are actually appearing more often, but instead we're noticing them more. An identical process can be found in the medical field, where an increase in reports of a disease may not represent an increase in the actual number of cases, but instead reflects more public awareness of the disease or better screening techniques. In other words, scientists know that just because more people report a phenomenon does not necessarily mean the phenomenon is occurring more often.
Why might UFOs be seen more often in the summer months? One possibility is that people spend more time outdoors; we spend warm nights outside at parties and barbecues, thus we have more opportunity to notice things in the sky than in the winter when we're inside watching television. That said, Clift pointed out that his organization doesn't normally see such dramatic seasonal increases in reports.
Whether the increase in sightings is rooted in reality, a computer glitch, or psychological and social influences remains to be seen. One thing is certain: This is not the first time that UFO reports have increased, and it won't be the last.
Several past patterns. Sightings are always higher in the summer months and for some reasons..in November-January annually.
Last springs hoaxes fizzled by 'Anonymous'. The word got out early, the description of the object of the supposed hoax was known, so it was easily spotted. In about several days, the same object description appeared in a number of Internet data bases (NUFORC & MUFON). It was very easy to spot them. Most recognized them for what they where when they came in. A triangle object with usually 7 lights.
Another potentially big factor - few if any have considered is - there are many unemployed people out there bored with nothing to do. Some may file false reports just to....
The quality of the reports coming into Mufon have been poor. Nothing to blow any investigators skirts. Just flooding the system with lights in the sky reports. Most who may file fake reports actually know little about investigators. Few will really bite at any light in the sky reports. I also notice those categorizing the reports are doing a abysmal job. The Mufon data base has many light in the sky reports categorized as category 2's and 3's! What for? Category 2's and 3's are for close encounters and physical evidence cases. Mufon's report screening people are getting sloppy.
I feel at this point it is a combination of bored unemployed people with nothing to do - who submit unsophisticated false reports, glitches in Mufon's CMS 2 (duplication of reports), the summer time, and perhaps some organized hoax effort. Hope not, but...
Clifford Clift's proclamations seem to think a new flap is about to begin. They think or they hope? Mufon's membership is down despite boasts to keep a brave face. Attendance at the symposium was down. The usual speakers reportedly disappointing in most cases.
I notice on the Mufon web page one man wishing to see the Pandora Project files. I was told by several persons who would be in position to know that 60 to 75% of the hard copy UFO files could not be saved. Stored in damp garages over decades took their toll. Mufon has sold the public about many things.
Peter Davenport just from reading his many posted UFO reports takes a credible skeptical eye of what he posts. I would gage any increased sighting report numbers at least to Peter's database. We will have to watch and see.
A flap is considered an increase in sightings over a set period of time say weeks or months - along all categories of sightings, from lights in the sky, to landings, entity reports, abductions, pilot reports. Across the board. So far this has not in any way happened yet.
I use as an example the NUFORC data base, for trust and consistency. If you follow their numbers.... UFO reports maybe actually down, not up.
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Clifford Clift could be just beating the bushes. (excuse me..his Christmas trees).