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So far, the models I see used in all of the impact simulations I can find online are as naive as childrens bed-time stories.
Impact science is still assuming that most catastrophic impact events consist of the kinetic impact of a single large bolide. And thatโs the only kind of impact event the online simulation programs consider.
Yet the majority of dangerous objects in Earth crossing orbits are fragile things like short period comets, and debris, of the Taurid complex. And if a person wants, they can quickly Google up images of fragmented comets like SW-3, or Linear. Both are typical daughters of the Taurids.
In spite of the facts that the largest impact event in recorded history was the airburst of a small Taurid family object. And that there is no reason to assume that it was an isolated event; or even a big one on the grand scale of such things. The available simulations you can play with online do not consider airburst phenomena, or the very real potential for a much larger, geo-ablative version of the Tunguska event.
They also fail to consider cluster impacts.
In spite of numerous images of extremely fragmented objects in the Taurid Complex, in short period, Earth-crossing orbits, like the ones mentioned above, none of the simulations to date consider the possibility of a cluster event, or very large, multiple airburst impact event. And none of the simulations consider what might happen of only the first fragments on the leading edge of a large cluster of comet fragments like that falls into cold atmosphere. Allowing the rest to fall into the already superheated impact plumes of the ones that fell before them, and just crank-up the heat, and pressure.
But the amount of material that is estimated to have fell when the debris of the Taurid progenitor hit just a few thousand years ago, is something like 1.1 billion tons. I wonder what a supersonic, and hyper-thermal, storm front, hundreds of miles wide, like a giant tsunami of thermal impact plasma, and rising to the full depth of the atmosphere, might do to the ground as it rushes across the terrains downrange during, and after, the impacts of a large cluster of smaller fragments like we see in the images of comets Linear, or Schwassmann-Wachmann 3.