That's interesting - can you get a copy of his calculations - the plot - for review?

Added: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:32 EDT

I'm looking at Robert D. Matson's graphs generated of the re-entry of the booster of 8 July 2008 approx. 17:20 UT (8:20PM local time). I don't know how to post images and it's past bedtime. But it is just a trajectory from known orbits of cataloged space junk - which Rob identified which goes through central Israel and passes north in the Mediterranian shy of Alexandria towards an intersection point on the far western Egyptian coast. We are assuming it crashed into the Sea between Cyprus and Egypt, but the exact point remains to be confirmed. Rob's times indicate the event at 19:20 UT if it followed the normal orbit the booster stage of the satellite had. However the re-entry tends to gradually slow it down in the last orbits and the effect was to slow it down by two hours directly along the trajectory which makes it unmistakeably certain. This booster was already very low and ready to crash into earth as soon as it rubbed enough with the top of the atmosphere, starting between 100 to 150 kilometers high. This was responsible for the light show in Israel and Israel, and perhaps northern Egypt where we are still waiting to hear any reports.

The Jerusalem and Tel Aviv newspapers are publishing several articles on a supposed "meteor" that lit up the skies of central Israel andthis same object was seen to the South of Cyprus over the Mediterranean at 8:15PM Israel (Cyprus?) time.

Rob's calculations show it was an old booster stage of a rocket that launched an Israeli satellite into space in 2007, whose orbit of the booster stage finally decayed and probably headed for the sea in the direction towards Alexandria, Egypt. I have the results in image format - the output to his own software programs he was kind enough to provide to me.

I have posted in several places including the Jerusalem and Tel Aviv newspapers. Interesting, my comments get published everywhere except there in Israel. The Israeli's quote astronomers and Army as baffled. Well, it is quite funny and in my opinion like Rob's, ironic, that it is their own space junk. Perhaps they just don't want to give much press to their satellite activities. But this needs to be properly explained as it has caused quite a lot of commotion among ordinary citizens from Israel to Cyprus. The good question to ask is if anyone in Alexandria (or Cairo)saw it?

Rob lives in Los Angeles California and is well known as the discoverer of hundreds of telescopic comets and over a thousand asteroids (and astronomy is only his hobby). He deserves some congratulations for figuring this out before anyone else...
Thanks, Doug
Mexico

Added: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 05:58 EDT

Thak you for the thoughtful assessment - I promise I'm also doing my best to keep an open mind. Unfortunately none of your links are active for me so I can't see your references. Individual witness accounts until triangulated from various distant points are notoriously inaccurate (even those by the best observers). There is a somewhat curved coastline about Larnaca and it basically faces southern Lebanon in many places. If someone uses the Sea as reference and called it South (Instead of nearly due east), then the object would seem to be going northerly. I am not saying this is the case, and I have looked at the western part of the mountain range you mention and can't reconcile that at all. The local time would have been 8:17 for the satellite booster to be the prime candidate for the object. In fact, at that time from Larnaca, as it went toward the Egypt/Libyan border, it would be seen to be over the Island from a Larnaca observer - this is very deceptive for even the best observers. (But not going towards the segment of mountains you mention-which you could not see making that an assumption and estimate) If your direction is really correct it could only be explained by it being a different object or by your observation not as accurate as you state). I know this is not a complete answer for you either way, but the other possibility is you saw some airplane contrails - very common, and of course at a similar time for them to be most noticeable, and your direction would be towards Athens and the rest of Europe - a common route. As for the picture - most of the show is determined by the Sun's position so if that really is a picture of the event (improperly labeled as a 'meteorite' which is a rock that has hit the ground), there wouldn't necessarily be much correlation as you say, also depending on the contaminants in the air too, etc.

Added: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:24 EDT

Of course, I meant West of Paralimni, towards Larnaca

Added: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 04:56 EDT

I appreciate that you live in Paralimni and wish I could have seen whatever you saw! I would just like to point out that Larnaca is somewhat to the south of Paralimni, and that is the direction you indicate it was traveling. Single witness reports are always difficult to reconcile, even when made by some of the best observers. This is why some sort of triangulation is the only reasonable approach for such surprises.

Added: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:55 EDT

You understood correctly anart - from what I've read in news reports from Israel, they said it was heading out over the sea. So all the eyewitness testimony so far is pointing to that this was a meteor passing over Israel, then Cyprus, and so on a heading N/NE.

Added: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 04:39 EDT

Anart, I embrace totally your criticism - all is fair game and contrary to your comment, I DO maintain an open mind - and welcome your comments. I am simply "baffled" by your "observations". You also must accept my skepticism on the informational value of our comments. We cannot just take your word that the object was traveling in the direction of a Mountain range that you couldn't possibly gauge (or even see?!!). This object is not a boat on the water - you do not know the altitude. The way your report is now, it is no different than you saying that Jupiter also flew "over" Larnaca when it set since you cannot have depth of field from your observing point.It is a fact that if you don't know the altitude of what you are observing you have no way to gauge its range (no depth of field) and make the conclusion that the object itself was going in the direction of those mountains you have modified your own assertation it was going north by commenting that it was possibly going a little westward too - this you say to "accomodate" that the Israelis said so; David has confused East and West and while he has made excellent effort but his accounts are very confusing
- perhaps a language issue, I would hardly consider his a reliable account considering he said it was doing "exactly" what you said and he is somewhere else and explaining directions inconsistent to yours - though he has it apparently zig zagging from Israel to "over" Cypress then backwards (NE) to Turkey. Both of your reports provide no accurate reference information except asking we believe your assertation. So I am skeptical of them pending actionable topographical or astronomical reference measurements when you could make them reliable, I will also believe you so you don't think I'm ignoring your "testimony". Now I will believe you confused airplane contrails with the different event observed Israel going west. additionally, we do have other reliable
reporting (from independent observers) referencing topographical features near Larnaca placing "the" event quite near the the viewing angle of the satellite and it's direction predominantly westward - and NOT passing over land from those exact coordinates - which makes sense from the coastline point of observation if it was the satellite. I can't discount a reliable report to be kind to one that is not, so the problem is not of fitting satellite data, it is of your making assumptions that you are talking about the same thing and complaining that heresay from you should eliminate other much more precise reporting (which you didn't know I had).

Added: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:04 EDT

In my above reply I thought "Anart" was "Irini" following up his original post. Truly sorry for not paying closer attention to who's who (Mea culpa amigos - this is not a place I normally post, and being tired I just wanted to get my response quickly and get some rest). In any case, let me reiterate that the content of my "Hi Anart and David" message is what I meant to say, except the observer was not Anart: it was Irini. Sorry for confusing you both:(

Added: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 16:01 EDT

I was also too hasty I think - On more consideration I face out of my balcony to the SouthEast. To view the object's progress had to turn to the right (facing SouthWest) and look up very roughly 45 degrees. So actually I was facing West by the time it disappeared from view.
I also agree that the central area of Larnaca is East facing, when the local perception is that it's South, and I made the same mistake.

Added: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:07 EDT

... for taking the effort to think over carefully the observation. I'd also like to compare the satellite passage from Larnaca to your observation of altitude of 45 degrees. From Larnaca the satellite reached EXACTLY 45 degrees above the horizon at closest pass. Please let me invite you to the site of the excellent Cyprus Astronomical Society, a group of dedicated amateurs you may like to join, where there is a further discussion thread on this with a sky map of the satellite's passage as seen from Larnaca: Here is a link to the actual thread: [Link]
ASince you enjoy ISS observations, a real fun extra not mentioned here: I promise you will love this real FLYING SAUCER. It is the only real one I have ever seen, but, it's not a UFO, it's an IFO - I bet you can guess the identification already! (The article link posted at the end of the thread) Thanks again,

Added: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:21 EDT

Lucky! & Interesting, for comparison, the principal mass of the decaying satellite passed Cyprus at 20:17, and was traveling parallel to the horizon with a heading of 255 degrees (270 degrees is due west).
I wish you had mentioned your exact location. This is some of the info that would help in an observation like this: What direction were you facing while making the sighting? At about what angle from the horizon (horizon = 0 degrees; zenith = 90 degrees)? Do you recall seeing the Moon at the time if sighting, and if so which was higher (or were they equally high in the sky)?

Added: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:42 EDT

Sorry, I am based in Potamos, Yermasoyia, Limassol . I was approx 400m from the beach when I saw it. Hope this helps.

Added: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:42 EDT

If you were somewhere near what was the "Old Bridge Hotel", over there the coastline faces a between south and southeast (SSE) direction - please read David's comments about how he was tricked by this near Larnaca. If you saw it over the water as it passed closest to you there, you are a very important observation point together compared with David, because of the relatively long distance between your two observations, both on the coast. Also, if you saw it over the water (toward the beach 400 meters away if the water wasn't visible), that would provide evidence that the object was continued south of the Island, because the Limassol coast is south of Larnaca, where it was also observed over the water. Can you say if the object passed you over water as it speeded along ?(it will generally be seen highest in the sky when it passes you) Knowing that would really help to refine the estimated direction.

Added: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:04 EDT