Below table lists the world's cities that are likely to collapse completely or partially by or before 2012¹ in the first wave of collapse. The collapse would be caused by a combination of failing ecosystems, human-enhanced environmental catastrophes; failing infrastructure; food, water and fuel shortages; infectious disease; war, civil conflict and other dynamics. Following the first phase of collapse, massive waves of human migration from the affected areas create a domino effect that causes the collapse of the remaining population centers shortly after.
Important Notice:
1. The date "2012" is based on the dynamic model simulations analyzing the environmental impact of excessive energy consumption. The CASF Committee and Members do NOT endorse Mayan Calendar or any New Age, ancient, or bible prophecies whatever.


Is your city safe?

To prevent misuse of data, commercial exploitation, or property speculation, the project coordinators are withholding names and specific details of the first phase of world's collapsing cities until further notice. See table below for general information.

collapsing cities
©MSRB, CASF
Table C.1. No. of world cities that could collapse completely or partially by 2012, the corresponding regions/countries and number of people that would be affected initially, according to the worst case future scenario.

The Dynamics of Collapse

The following exhibit lists the most probable [leading] causes that would drive the first wave of the world cities to collapse. [Note: The data is listed in random order]
* Mass suicide as a result of neurological disorder caused by mercury [or other heavy metal] poisoning.
* Tourism [euphemistically, eco-tourism]
* Accumulation of toxic pollution in the environment
* Overwhelmed by mounting waste: agricultural, municipal (garbage and sewage) and industrial
* Poor global harvest/Food scarcity [Humans are one harvest away from starvation!]
* Running Dry (Running out of freshwater)
* Human-induced climate change
* Increased UV radiation
* Foodborne, waterborne, airborne and insectborne infectious diseases (viral, bacterial, parasitic, fungal, prion)
* Droughts
* Sinking into the ground (large-scale subsidence caused by overuse of groundwater supplies)
* Global collapse of pollinators
* Extreme climatic events (including extreme rain events, floods)
* Famine
* Collapse of natural pest regulation systems
* Failing ecosystems
* Societal collapse
* Moral decline (unethical behavior, unsustainable lifestyles, overconsumption)
* Fuel shortage
* Spread of pandemic diseases
* Industrial accidents (including radionuclide, chemical and oil spills)
* Deforestation
* Epidemics of plant and animal diseases
* Desertification; Soil degradation (salination, erosion, loss of topsoil and fertility)
* Economic collapse
* Land use change
* Habitat destruction
* War (conventional and nuclear)
* Collapse of fisheries/fish species
* Civil conflict
* Poverty
* Overshoot of Carrying Capacity; Increased ecological footprint; Overpopulation (esp. DCs*)
* Inordinate prevalence of psychopathology caused by exponential growth economy: money fetishism, industrialism, militarism, atomic lifestyles, consumerism, throwaway culture, dysfunctional societies ...
* Human-enhanced natural catastrophes including earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, hurricanes, tropical storms, cyclones, extreme rainfall events, landslides, volcanic eruptions, droughts and wildfires
*DCs: Developed Countries

Related Links:

* Failing Ecosystems
* 500 Weather-Related Disasters A Year
* Greenland Ice Melt Faster Than IPCC Estimates
* Drying Aquifers, Sinking Cities
* Topsoil
* State of the World
* Future Scenarios
* Ghost towns

Early Warning Signs:

Italy's "trash tsar" takes charge see Video report
Whose thirst comes first? Orlando, Jacksonville areas face water war
The Great Flood: Britain under water (Video)
Britain under flood
Australia suffers worst drought in 1,000 years .
China floods 'worst ever' .
Jakarta Floods Linked to Illegal Constructions .
54,700 Dead Or Missing In Worst North Korean Floods Ever .
Millions flee 'worst ever' floods.
Outbreak of rare Ebola virus in Uganda worsens .
Investigation of Outbreak of Human Infections Caused by E. coli O157:H7 .
A Major Outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Hong Kong .
Hurricane Katrina .
United Kingdom foot-and-mouth crisis .
U.K. moves to contain another spread of foot-and-mouth disease .
Floods in southeast Europe leave villages, farms under water .
Africa: Over a billion people in 100 countries face a bleak future due to climate change
China reels from worst drought in a decade (December 2007)
Cities sinking due to excessive pumping of groundwater
Goiania Radiological Incident (PDF 6.4MB)
Chernobyl disaster
The Bhopal Disaster
Torrey Canyon Supertanker disaster
Exxon Valdez oil spill