Physicians in Vietnam say they found evidence the H5N1 avian influenza virus can quickly mutate into a form that resists the effects of the frontline drug.
Tests found virus samples taken from two patients showed a substitution in a gene that confers resistance to oseltamivir, the generic name for Tamiflu, the researchers report in Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine.
In all, four of eight patients treated in Vietnam for bird flu died despite use of Tamiflu. In one case, a 13-year-old girl was treated during the first 48 hours, which is considered the best time for the drug to work.
Like all viruses, influenza can become resistant to drugs, so the findings are disappointing but not unexpected to virologists.
The cases don't mean Tamiflu won't work in a pandemic, said Dr. Allison McGeer, an infectious disease specialist in Toronto.
Given resistance concerns, three doctors argue in journal commentaries that family physicians have a public health duty not to write prescriptions for patient stockpiles.
Their reasons are:
* The drug should be saved to treat the ill in a pandemic.* People will be confused about when to take Tamiflu.* Inappropriate use of Tamiflu could cause the virus to become resistant.Dr. Ross Upshur, a family physician in Toronto, says several of his patients have asked for Tamiflu because of worries about a pandemic.
"I told them that I wasn't going to write a prescription for Tamiflu and I thought that it was unnecessary," Upshur said.
Demand for Tamiflu is growing. Roche Pharmaceuticals has temporarily stopped sales during the regular flu season because the manufacturer is worried about a shortage.
Canada's chief public health officer, Dr. David Butler-Jones, advises against stockpiling the drug for personal use when it becomes available.
"My advice would be generally, no, I don't think it's appropriate at this time," said Butler-Jones. "But the jury is still out, and that advice may change in a year or two."
The latest studies on Tamiflu show it won't be a magic bullet for treatment, and probably works better at preventing infection.
Using it to prevent infection would require much larger stockpiles. Although it will be expensive, governments should be pressed to stockpile more and use it where it will be most effective, McGeer said.
"Everybody in society has the right to say to public health people and governments: it's important to me that when the pandemic comes, that you're going to be adequately protecting me and people I work with and the people I live with," said McGeer. "How are you going to do that?"
If all government stockpiles of Tamiflu were used for prevention during a pandemic, CBC News conservatively estimates, there would be enough to protect two per cent of Canadians, based on the population and how long the drug needs to be taken.






















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Comment: There is something screwy in the way the avian flu story has been reported over the months. Earlier this year, we had daily reports as the virus moved from Asia westward into Europe. Bush was reading up on the post WWI flu epidemic during his vacation in August.
Speculation began on the timetable for the inevitable mutation of the virus into one that was communicable between humans.
There were calls for massive stockpiling of Tamiflu, which surely pleases Roche Pharmaceuticals.
Then the westward progress of the flu seemed to slow down or stop.
A trial run? A little social experiment? The time to allow someone to perfect the real thing, the virus that will be fitted to a target population?
If we speculate a bit, beginning with the premise that the pathocracy is self-aware, and our knowledge that many pathological traits are genetic, could we imagine a virus aimed at non-pathological genetics?
For background on the possibility, see our supplement on ethnic specific weapons.