© @DailyRuSoldiers/XRussian soldiers celebrate taking a trophy American Bradley M2A2 ODS-SA infantry fighting vehicle, Avdeevka, Donetsk People's Republic, Special Military Operation zone, March 26, 2024
There are growing concerns both in Ukraine and among its Western backers that an expected Russian offensive this summer could break through the country's defenses, reports in Western media have claimed.
Kiev has been complaining for months that a shortage of weapons from the West has put it at a massive disadvantage on the battlefield against Moscow. President Vladimir Zelensky told the Washington Post last week that his forces may have to retreat further to reduce the length of the front line and the amount of munitions and men needed to hold it.
"If [the line] breaks, the Russians could go to the big cities," he warned.
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Ukrainian military officials, who spoke to Politico on condition of anonymity have warned that the front line may collapse. Russia's advantage in weapons and manpower means that it will likely be able to "penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts," one of the officers said on Wednesday.
"There's nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us," a top military leader said.
The warning came from officers who served under Valery Zaluzhny, who was the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces until Zelensky replaced him in early February. Prior to that, the pair had clashed publicly over whether the hostilities with Russia had reached a stalemate, which was the general's assessment.
The officers cautioned against underestimating Russia's ability to adapt and counter new military capabilities provided by the West to Ukraine. They "are always studying. They don't give us a second chance. And they're successful in this," one of them said. Even now, Russian forces are laying the groundwork for engaging F-16 fighter jets, which Kiev is expected to eventually deploy, the report said.
Domestically, the Ukrainian government has been downplaying the risks that a Russian offensive would pose. Its information warfare service, the Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD), stated on Tuesday that Moscow "does not have resources" for a major push forward.
Comment: Russia has been patiently, methodically destroying Ukraine' military capability since Boris Johnson scuttled nearly-completed peace talks in 2022. By extension, it is also 'demilitarizing' NATO and the U.S., who bet the majority (and for some, all) of their arms stocks on Ukraine. Now those weapons and equipment are irretrievably gone, except for what the U.S. has held back for its coming war on China. (It won't be enough.)
Russia has expertly fought a classic war of attrition, not focused on gaining territory (the West's obsession) but on rendering their foes unable to continue to fight. Attrition wars grind slowly, but tend to end quickly. There may be some interesting developments by late summer . . . .