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The survey was conducted from March 8 to 14, forecasts a contraction of 0.1% in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter, a stark contrast to previous expectations of stagnation during this period.
The Bundesbank has echoed concerns, suggesting that Germany may be experiencing a six-month slump, albeit downplaying the likelihood of a severe downturn. Meanwhile, the Economy Ministry has emphasized the prevailing economic challenges, noting weak domestic demand, elevated financing costs and subdued sentiment among households and businesses as contributing factors.
Despite positive indicators in industrial production, construction and foreign trade at the beginning of 2024, a significant economic recovery remains elusive. The Economy Ministry's monthly report underscores this sentiment, citing persistent obstacles to growth.
Furthermore, respondents in the Bloomberg survey have downgraded their forecasts for 2024, now anticipating a mere 0.1% growth for the year. The Ministry has cautioned that a substantial economic upturn may not materialize until later in the year, contingent upon factors such as declining inflation rates, stable labor market conditions and improved foreign trade dynamics.
Comment: That seems unlikely, because the situation is much worse than this article makes it out to be: 'Germany is in trouble': Highest corporate bankruptcy in Europe, inflation, energy costs, threatens more sectors - Bloomberg
Martin Belchev of FrontierView emphasized the formidable challenges facing the German economy, including the loss of cheap energy from Russia, diminished sales opportunities in China, and reduced security assurances from the United States. Despite potential improvements indicated by upcoming data releases, such as the ZEW expectations survey and the Ifo business climate index, Germany confronts significant economic headwinds on its path to recovery.
Gee, big surprise with the Nord Stream sabotage, the sanctions on cheap Russian natural gas, the open borders to immigrants who suck up resources, the greening of the economy (close coal plants, nuclear plants). Wow, it looks like this financial disaster was engineered.