© Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesFILE: US President Joe Biden offers Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA) the pen he signed the Inflation Reduction Act • Chuck Schumer (D-NY). While inflation has fallen sharply since peaking above 9% in June 2022, many are still feeling the pinch of high prices.
Price growth dropped to an annual rate of 3.1% in January, according to official data; above economists' expectations of 2.9%. In December, the consumer price index stood at 3.4%.
Comment: Overall inflation may be 'falling', but the point is that it continues steadily rising, well above earnings. And clearly economists are missing something because it's rising well above expectations.
The latest official data sparked a sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 1.3% and the Dow Jones industrial average dropping 1.1%.
Stock markets have scaled record highs in recent weeks as investors grew more confident about the easing of inflation and some of the US's largest companies released robust results.
Comment: Stock markets, particularly in the West, bear little reflection on reality.
While inflation has fallen sharply since peaking above 9% in June 2022, many Americans are still feeling the pinch.
Comment: People working 2 jobs who still can't afford the basics is more than a 'pinch'.
Joe Biden, who is standing for re-election in November, must persuade them that the economy is working for them.
On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose by 0.3% in January, up from 0.2% the previous month and also higher than the 0.2% expected.
The so-called "core" index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is closely watched as it tends to provide a better indication of inflation's trajectory. It also increased on the month, from 0.3% to 0.4%.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which releases the data each month, said the index was driven higher in January by the rising cost of shelter, including rent; motor vehicle insurance; and medical care.
The US economy has remained robust in recent years, adding millions of jobs and defying predictions of recession even as the Federal Reserve has embarked upon an aggressive campaign to take on inflation. Employers added 353,000 jobs last month alone.
Many Americans have not been feeling positive about the economy, as they grapple with their own financial realities. A closely watched survey by the University of Michigan indicated a rallying in consumer confidence last month, however, with sentiment jumping to its highest level since July 2021.
Now that annual inflation is easing back towards 2%, Fed policymakers are preparing to cut interest rates for the first time in four years. Wall Street had been betting that the central bank would start doing so as soon as May, after the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, signaled that a cut was unlikely next month.
Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said January's unexpectedly strong reading will reinforce the view in some quarters that the "last mile is the hardest" as inflation comes back down to earth.
Prices in key categories like clothing and medical care commodities did fall last month, however. "There is still plenty of disinflation in the economy," Ashworth noted.
Comment: So clothes are cheaper but housing and food is more expensive? How is that a positive sign for the economy?
There's absolutely no reason to believe that inflation will do anything but continue to climb even if it slows every now and then, and it's the same situation across much of the West.
Overall, it's just a question of how much till the average American will suffer before they decide to react, or whether the establishment will choose to accelerate the destruction of the economy before then: