Netanyahu's bad luck results in new Hezbollah "response strategy" - Israel denies any casualties from retaliatory attack

Elijah J. Magnier
ejmagnier.com
Mon, 02 Sep 2019 22:52 UTC

© AP/Bilal Hussein

Hezbollah fighter at watchtower

The people of the Middle East looked from different and contradictory angles at the "battle between wars" that took place between Israel and Hezbollah in the last week of the month of August. Many wanted to see more Israeli blood and more killing of soldiers; others criticised Hezbollah's retaliation to the Israeli aggression on Lebanon when they sent two booby-trapped drones into the suburb of Beirut. Nevertheless, the Hezbollah attack against an Israeli vehicle marked a new starting point for a future equation imposing respect for the rules of engagement, the implementation of a response strategy, and an exchange of more messages understood by both belligerents. All these consequences are the result of the Israeli Prime Minister's intention to start a new plan of action, sending suicide drones against Iran and its allies. Netanyahu's bad luck was that his hit-and-run tactic was disturbed by technical damage to one of the two drones he sent to the suburb of Beirut. This failure had the effect of imposing new rules which are expected to last for as long as no US war is waged on Iran.

According to available information, a group of Hezbollah and allies went to the borders of the occupied Golan Heights in Syria at night and released a drone towards Israel. A few hours later, these returned to their villa close to Damascus airport, followed by an Israeli drone to identify their location. Israel decided to bomb that house, killing the two militants, according to the Hezbollah official release. The same night Israel sent two suicide drones to the suburb of Beirut, targeting what seems to have been a drone warehouse. One of the drones experienced technical failure or an unknown incident and was captured by Hezbollah, revealing the new Israeli targeting tactic against Iran's allies.

Had Netanyahu not been unfortunate, Hezbollah's situation would have been harder to explain - if its Secretary General had decided to retaliate against Israel for the killing of its militants in Syria, dragging Lebanon into a possible war with Israel. He would not have enjoyed the support of the pro-US Prime Minister Saad Hariri and many other members of the government of his political stance who stood up for Hezbollah's right to retaliate against Israel. Netanyahu's suicide-drone tactic would have survived for some time, in the process, destroying many of Hezbollah's military capabilities without being punished, and with no trace left behind.

Today, any possible explosion of Hezbollah warehouses will directly implicate Israel. The capture of one of Netanyahu's drones has created a historical precedent, where no other official in Israel can adopt this policy. They will have to abide by the rules of engagement and refrain from hitting any Hezbollah target in the short and medium term unless specifically aiming for war.

Another important issue to point out is the way Hezbollah targeted the Israeli vehicle and left several casualties - as confirmed by Hezbollah sources - or no casualties at all according to Israeli Army propaganda. This act "casualties free" brought out many assumptions by analysts and on social media, many of them fictional. Many would consider this a justification for the well-thought-out hit Hezbollah carried out against a military target in Avivim. Some imagined a joint agreement between Hezbollah and Israel to soften the blow. Others wrote about Hezbollah's decision to mitigate the strike due to international pressure on Lebanon.

Comment: The Israelis are claiming that their evacuation of wounded personnel was "staged" in order to dupe Hezbollah into thinking they had been successful (thus forestalling any further attacks).

But Hezbollah then released footage of their attack. It sure looks as if it must have caused casualties:

Depending on how you look at it, the Israeli response is either clever, or incredibly dumb. On the one hand it has the effect of soothing the feelings of the Israeli population - who get hysterical whenever they lose a soldier - and on the other, injects doubt into the minds of Hezbollah. Do they risk further escalation by going for a "confirmed kill", thus upsetting the delicate balance of tit-for-tat? But then again, why fake it, and then tell the world that you fake it? If no one got hurt "officially", then no one can blame Hezbollah for trying again.

I learned that an Israeli Super Dvora boat violated Lebanese waters and was spotted by Hezbollah radar. The potential target was communicated to the Hezbollah leadership who refused to destroy it - with its advanced supersonic anti-ship missiles - because that could trigger a war: the large number of casualties would have forced Netanyahu to respond.

What happened in Avivim on Sunday afternoon is that Hezbollah apparently used the approach the Israelis have used for years in Syria. One laser-guided missile hit the front of the Israeli vehicle. Another, seconds later, burned the military vehicle from behind with the intention to inflict casualties. This is exactly the same tactic Israel uses with Hezbollah weapons and ammunition trucks struck by Israel to prevent human casualties and avoid retaliation. On Sunday afternoon, Hezbollah sent a very strong message to Israel, much stronger than killing two or three soldiers: we continue transporting weapons from Syria, making sure it will continue to be casualty free. Or else: the balance will be broken, no longer respected, and there will be severe consequences.

Since its inception, Hezbollah is aware that Israel has targeted and assassinated many officials working with the Palestinians in Gaza. Many have been killed and others survived assassination attempts. By killing the two Hezbollah members in Syria, Israel aimed to emphasise again that any adverse party seeking to operate in Israel and Palestine will be immediately targeted.

The Hezbollah hit took place in daylight and outside the occupied Shebaa Farms. It aimed to impose a strategic response for any future Israeli attack all along the Lebanese-Israeli borders. Hezbollah forced the Israeli Army to hide for a week and retreat behind civilians on the borders. It imposed on Israel to refrain from hitting any Hezbollah objectives because the retaliation this time would then be without prior warning. Thus, Hezbollah imposed new rules of engagement, introducing new elements that were taboo before 1st September. Moreover, Israel can now no longer assassinate any Hezbollah leader without an immediate and undeclared retaliation - for example against any high-ranking Israeli officer who is among those who visit and who are based all along the borders with Lebanon.

Hezbollah has won on all levels, regardless of the number of casualties. Israel has lost on all fronts, turning Lebanon into a much safer place. All that because of one malfunctioning drone: it costs Netanyahu a heavier price than he ever imagined.

Comment: Nasrallah announced a 'new phase' in the simmering conflict with Israel:

Hassan Nasrallah has issued a stark warning to Israel, saying that if it attacks the group's positions, all Israeli "borders and forces will be at risk".

In what he described as a clear "message" to Israel, the Hezbollah leader said that the latest escalation of tensions marked the "start of a new phase", adding that the Lebanon-based movement "no longer" has red lines. He also vowed to attack "deep inside" Israel if the movement was targeted again.

Nasrallah continued by saying that "there is a new battlefield which is targeting Israeli drones in Lebanon's skies" in an apparent reference to last week's incident in which two alleged Israeli UAVs crashed near Beirut.

His statement comes a day after the IDF and Hezbollah exchanged fire, with the latter launching numerous anti-tank missiles at Israeli positions, while Tel Aviv hit back by firing over 100 artillery shells into southern Lebanon.

Nasrallah appeared to reiterate his previous comments, in which he addressed the professed Israeli drone incident, describing it as a "suicide mission". It was reported last week that one drone allegedly fell in the southern suburbs of Beirut, while a second UAV exploded in the air on 25 August, a Hezbollah official was cited as saying by Reuters. The source claimed that the drones were Israeli. The blast reportedly caused significant damage to the Hezbollah press service's building and left three people wounded.

He vowed that Hezbollah would "do everything to prevent" attacks of that sort in the future, arguing that the time when Israel could bomb Lebanon was "over". The movement's leader went on to say that they had entered a new phase in the long-standing conflict with the Jewish state.

Today, Israel launched a spy balloon into Lebanese airspace. Netanyahu gave himself a pat on the back for Israel's actions:

"The man in the bunker in Beirut knows exactly why he is in the bunker", he said, apparently hinting at Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. "We will continue to do everything necessary to keep Israel safe - at sea, land and air - and we will continue to work against the threat of [Hezbollah's] precision missiles".

Because he's one of the biggest threats to Israel, and the Israelis know it. Given the Israelis' propensity for blatant criminality and assassination, the "man in the bunker" has proven to be quite competent.

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Neither of the sides has reported causalities following the clashes, which are believed to mark the largest confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah in years.

It was reported by The Jerusalem Post that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Lebanese Prime Minister Said Hariri passed on a message to Israeli authorities through third-party countries after the exchange of fire took place that stated that from Hezbollah's point of view, the incident was over and pledged to end hostilities, as Israel had "achieved its goals".

"We received pleas from Lebanon through third-party countries, pleading with us not to respond", a senior Israeli official source told journalists, as reported by Haaretz.