Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands have just beaten an all-time heat record. The UK is set to do the same. France did it last month, but could come close again this week. Portugal has just brought one wildfire under control, and warns of a "very high" risk of more, as are Spain and Italy.
But earlier in July, Germany and the Netherlands hit a record-low night-time temperature of under -1 C, and Switzerland was a few degrees colder than its summer averages.
All the while Moscow is getting soaked with rain in a July that's set to become the coldest in over 40 years. We asked climate and weather experts what's going on.
'Global Warming' or 'Climate Change'?
There's no denying the planet, broadly speaking, is heating up. This year saw the warmest observed spring in the Northern hemisphere. June was the warmest on record worldwide. Some areas are becoming warmer at a faster rate than others - including those closer to the poles, says Dmitry Kiktyov, acting director of Rosgidromet, Russia's state weather service.
Russia is also heating up faster than the global average in the last 40 years - 2.5 times faster, in fact. It has been gaining almost half-a-degree every decade since the late 1970s, according to Rosgidromet's 2018 climate report.
Why, then, are Muscovites grudgingly shuffling around in their autumn coats in July - which is supposed to be the hottest month of the year in these parts?
July 2019 has been steadily proceeding at two degrees below average, and it's going to be even worse next week, when an Arctic blast is predicted to take thermometers down to below 15 C.
The number of observed weather extremes and anomalies increases, but it's not necessarily a direct correlation with getting warmer.
"There is data over the past decades, which shows the number and strength of weather extremes is increasing in many areas of the globe... the climate, the weather is getting more twitchy - though not everywhere," Kiktyov says.
"Observed" is the key word here, experts believe.
"Rains, downpours, storms - it was all there a hundred years ago, too. On the other hand, the latest statistics show that the number and frequency of dangerous phenomena has increased. Whether that's because of climate change, or because there has been more monitoring, is not entirely clear," says Anatoly Tsygankov, deputy head of Rosgidromet's situation center. "Obviously, a hundred years ago, weather observation networks were very different from now. It was less dense, there were no satellites. Nowadays, the monitoring is more detailed."
Man-made or Natural?
How much of this global warming is of our own doing is debatable.
"Nobody really knows the reason. There are two theories. The two foremost theories are the greenhouse effect and the shifting of the Earth's axis relative to the Sun. Both are viable," says Tsygankov.
Earth goes through cycles, heating up and cooling down over centuries. Examples include the Medieval Warm Period followed by the Little Ice Age of the late Middle Ages. What we are going through now could, essentially, be another such swing, says Yevgeny Tishkovets, the chief specialist at the Phobos weather center.
"The main factor behind climate change on Earth is the changes in solar activity. As a rule, it happens every 200 years, give or take," says Tishkovets.
Despite all the apocalyptic worst-case scenarios flashing from news headlines, it's nigh-impossible to accurately predict climate in the long term. Such projections are based on climate models, of which there are plenty, and advisory bodies get to pick and choose which one to use.
The human impact, in particular, has been exaggerated and vastly politicized, Tishkovets believes. He named the 2009 Climategate scandal as a case in point.
There have been scandals. Remember the leaked emails of British climatologists, when they manipulated climate data? A lot of people are simply fulfilling an order. 'We need to overheat the topic, here's the money, go.'Manipulation is made easier by the sheer variety of climate projection models, and the end result is practically impossible to contest, he believes, because "how can you even verify a 50-year weather forecast?"
Is every summer going to be like this now?
Despite all the tools at our disposal, we can only really trust a forecast for the next week, a ten-day one at most, experts agree. Anything more far-reaching than that is subject to myriad mutable factors, which can undermine the most accurate-seeming prognosis on a whim.
"It's not all that straightforward; there's no certainty the next year will be warmer than this one. There are peaks and valleys. There are so-called long-term modes of atmospheric variability, which are like swings that can last decades... they can partially offset each other, or they can add up - then we get an extreme winter or summer," Kiktyov says.
We all see the alarming graphs with the temperature curves crawling up degree by degree over the recent decades - but reliable weather and climate monitoring only goes back 140 years or so. A speck in time compared to planetary history - and in the end, we might end up having to just "crumple those graphs and throw them in the bin," says Tishkovets.
Reader Comments
As far as I'm concerned, I think the precession of the equinoxes might have something to do with the increasingly erratic weather. Depending of where the planet is in that 26,000 or so years it's going to get warmer up North and colder down South which could create a dangerous imbalance or close to even cold at both poles and quite warmer in the center which could create an ice age in the upper and lower latitudes. I think the next few years will be telling because the inclination of the planet coupled with the wobble of the precession of the equinoxes will make changes more evident one way or another. Maybe the planet was in mid-cycle and we are now heading for maximum tilt or almost none, well less anyway.
The thing is our lifespan is too short and no previous civilization so far seems to have gone through a complete cycle without being almost completely wiped out and erased.
That's my personal theory and insults are going to be wasted since nobody knows for sure the why and the what next. Since there are as many people arguing for one option, colder, or the other, warmer, in my mind they cancel each other out and perversely both could be right...
"The main factor behind climate change on Earth is the changes in solar activity. As a rule, it happens every 200 years, give or take."
We are lucky to have 200 years of continuous climate and solar observation but as Yevgeny Tishkovets points out above, that 200 years is but a tiny sliver of time compared to the life of the planet.
Scientists cannot investigate what is officially not desired, and journalists cannot report about what is not desired. If they do, they are first defunded, and second (if they don't desist) suicided.
when we experienced temperatures up to 47 degrees Celsius during summer time where I live, in Greece that is. The sun's trajectory may have changed up to 100-150 miles from it's original course due to the fact that a small part of the sun has been exhausted and has become dead planetary mass. Wild theory, I know, but still a possibility.
One reason we 're gonna build our colony in Mars is because it's further away from the sun than Earth is.
I also believe that there are people on this planet who know a lot more than we do, but they are not letting us know in order not to panic us, which overall means that climate change is not good news.
The so-called PTB want you to believe they are in control, as their status on top of the dung heap depends on it. But , they are not.
Have you read Earth Changes and the Human Cosmic Connection? Why not give it a read?
Then there is Information Theory, and Intelligent Design.
A little quote or two from Tom Stonier.
I'll extend your comment -- Know DIE self. The self is an illusion. It leads to being SELFish, SELF-centered, SELF-aggrandizement, SELF-assurance (arrogance in long run), being SELF-defensive, SELF-destructive, etc..etc...most are "negative" connotations...and the ones that aren't now (Like SELF-confidence perhaps)...when the dust settles..will be too more/less. What is the alternative to the self? Check my profile, if you like.
Go to the website I left...and look through it...that's the basic mechanism. But the website is devoid of details...that's what I have now. But convincing others of that on a mass scale is not a worthy goal at this time. Cuz it wouldn't make a difference anyway....just try talking to people about the health impacts...denial / dismissive all over the place. And all the $$$ involved in believing carbon, and promoting more radiation.
Are you aware of the health effects of microwave radiation? Even "experts" underestimate it....I've read most of the books out on the subject. The Invisible Rainbow is a nice historical tome. Electronic Silent Spring is another. I have numerous (high-end) EMF meters and have taken measurements all over the place in multiple countries.
Ah, I see you have a book Quiet Freedom! Well, lets see how this current debate pans out, and I might even end up buying a copy. "Reality is an illusion, albeit a persistent one". This may be true, but one must deal with the reality one exists in.
Well, I disagree, and I think you have this wrong. First, the self is the focal point or lens through which one experiences life, it is the central reference point that directs the movement in ones existence, wherein all experience, emotions, thoughts etc are referred to. A self can be connected to a larger group of souls, or beings, but still is a unique experience/focal point. The self can be polarised to service to others, where the beings serve each other, and what is given has been asked for, not what one thinks one should give. Serving others is serving self through serving others, and is a complete system that souls learn and grow, while freewill is respected. When I say a complete system, I mean it is balanced, and reflects the universal system of balance, and doesn't seek to alter same for personal gain...i.e, the reality is acknowledged. Prime Creator is served. The human race is not polarised to service to others, or STO. The human race is polarised to service to self, or STS for short. This polarity serves self only, and glorifies the self above all else. Within such a polarity, other beings polarised to STS will be feeding upon the beings in the pyramid of selfishness, and so on up to the top. Both of these polarities exist, and are allowed to exist, as of Prime Creator and at the level of humans in 3D, it is all too easy to place value judgements on these, and this is where a twist in the road can take one "off the path". All selves are a part of the greater SELF, in Prime Creator. Prime Creator has many faces!
So, for any progress and learning to take place, self importance must die (acknowledgement of reality ), not the self. Empty houses make for unwanted guests.
(By the way, I haven't read your book, so if I have misunderstood what you are saying here, apologies in advance.) Yes, I am aware of this, and have a meter that measures EMF, although not a high end one. The base units of cordless phones are lethal, even when not in use. Cell phones, computers, routers etc, all emit EMF, and there is a general background radiation, (not a relic of the so-called big bang) We are living in an EMF soup.
That's fine to disagree. To accept anything blindly - is folly indeed. If you were to read the book, Quiet Freedom, you might understand the SELF much better and alternative (Which is to just BE). I'm already well on my way to terminating mine. The closer I get, the more authentic and stress-free I become. And free of (emotional) LABELS attached to ourSELF. Sticks & stones may break my bones, but words will never hurt me. Someday this will be true for me....words spoken by ANYONE. It almost already is...
And there are other benefits...which you may see on the website, even before you read the book. (Extraordinary Abilities) Though some of the ultimate benefits are not on the website or in the book...that will be a surprise.... On a related note - look up the etymology for the word PERSON at Merriam-Webster. It mean's an ACTOR'S MASK. So a PERSON-ALITY by extension is someone who is wearing a specific kind of mask, of their own creation. We all wear masks of one sort or another...We are all ACTors / ACTresses.
The SELF is an artificial creation. I learned a lot by studying how we are different as babies vs children vs adults and the transition period of puberty. Maintaining our SELF-image causes us to be a certain way. Having a SELF-image is stressful...because it makes us think (worry to one degree or another) about what we are saying and doing - rather than just being free of this worry. To terminate the self, one must master their emotions completely...understand where they come from, and how they get repressed, and reverse the process. Quiet Freedom reveals the exact initial steps on how to proceed. But I've gone much further....
Glad to know you have awareness of EMF. Yes, cordless phones are bad boys/girls.
As for your other comment, of why not write another book - I wrote the cause of all problems, historical and present, into Quiet Freedom. The ultimate ENEMY is IN ME. ENeMIGO, ENneMI. Spanish/French. And provided the exact solution - condensed down to 7 sentences said 3 ways.
Writing another book wouldn't change anything in a significant manner in the world. The most important thing for me is to finish my physical transformation....and to achieve ultimate freedom. The book is about 15 years before its time. But if I didn't write it "now" I wouldn't have written it at all. Writing is a form of "crying" and I'm running out of tears to shed. Not sure if this makes sense.
scribe = s-CRI-be. CRI=CRY. I~Y. (Like enemY = ennemI in French) SCRIBble - SCRABble. Vowels interchangeable A-E-I-O-U. P~B. SCRIPt - JavaSCRIPT - SCRIPTure - preSCRIPTion - deSCRIPTion - sanSKRIT - inSCRIPTion - subSCRIPTion. CRYPT.
subSCRIBe ~ subSCRIPtion. inSCRIBe ~ inSCRIPtion...and so on...deSCRIBE, preSCRIBE, etc...
SCRIBE = early word for writer.
lesson / code in our words....crosses all languages...sound/letter based...so you see...writing is a form of crying. C=G like Cat=Gato. GRIpe, GRIt...ok enough for a comment.
I suspect QF will become very popular in 15 years time more or less....but only because of my physical transformation and the conditions on our planet then.... 2020-2030+ will see a massive acceleration in the effects of warming / climate change / human sickness / death / chaos. I'm preparing for that. But not in a way like any other. As in, I'm not a "prepper." Something "we" must go through....
Before we may have peace on the outside, we must have it on the inside. But, relatively few choose to look that far inward....many distractions...noisy world full of music and song.
There is A LOT more, and I've only scratched the surface, so to speak. Someday, I think a large team of people will go hog wild and de-cipher it completely more/less with a few clues/direction that I can offer. I call it - Word DNA. I'm like the entrepreneur who starts something, but doesn't finish it. Hahah. Well..I do have to finish "the transformation." Everyone who wants to evolve has to...but really...read the book first.
GRIef, GRIeve, GRAve are other ones that come to mind. So...when one stops CRYing...no more GRieving (For planet or dead people, for example. No more sadness - AT ALL) ...and no GRAVE? Are DEath and TAXes in-evit-able? (Evitar is verb TO AVOID in Spanish.. EVIT = AVOID...actually I just noticed this. It is 2nd nature to me now. inevitable = unavoidable, looks different, but the same) If you have my perspective...they both can be defeated. But we'll save that conversation for another year. Decade?
ok..sorry for that unsolicited jab. Well..to me the 3D world is not an illusion. But how we choose to interpret it is a manifestation of our "eyesight" (Knowledge / interpretation engine / experiences) A quote I've liked in the past -- "The true voyage of discovery is not in going to new places, but in seeing with new eyes." - Marcel Proust
Where do you think FEAR comes from? Where does ANGER come from? Why do some people have more/less of these? Are these increasing or decreasing? Why?
self-CONtrol = stress....life in the woods is nice... watch out for those Bark / Pine Beetles though! Just read a book about them...California - ~150 million trees dead...Colorado, BC Canada - many more, etc..etc...yet, what does the media talk of everyday...surely not these stories. Obsessed with human foibles / activity. Lesson to be learned...when you trace the year the current mass die off / beetle invasion started...1997... a "magical" year.
There is a chapter in Quiet Freedom called - Light and Dark...I think. Been awhile since I looked at it...but you can see the LIGHT AND DARK theme on the website. Maybe you would enjoy it...
Anyway, I will have to write it again, and reduce the words used. Hopefully I can do it tomorrow.
Consider changing "change" to cycles.
Then your NOT faced with the thought that everything is going t*ts up, and is changing for the worst.
Cycles are a dominant feature of Earth's history,
you only have to look around you to see this in our landscapes.
Your Sun is by far the biggest of factors governing Earth's atmosphere, and weather via Milankovitch cycles.
There are other factors liken to earthquakes , volcanic eruptions, NEOs, meteor strikes and large bodies that visit every so often.
The headline is typical alarmist, it has words of "Extreme, Roller coaster" and "worry".
These word support the train of thought that something has gone wrong, it hasn't.
We live on a planet, not in cloud cuckoo land.
There's lots going on, so don't expect things to get any better, as the weather will do what it's always done, flow in perpetual cycles.
Your right, in that the Earth's and our Sun's Electromagnetic fields, are well on there way to flipping, and this has a direct effect on Earth's weather.
Earth's magnetic shield is already down by over 20%, radiation levels in Earth's atmosphere are up by 18%.
We are at that tipsy turvy stage, and that's reflected in how the jet streams are performing, following cold air, as yet another IceAge starts to unfold.
It's been like this in monsoon season ever since I have been here tho, about 9 years now.