Man who had staked his career on reaching a two-state solution to the conflict with Israel will likely serve his people's needs better by leaving the scene

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas announced yesterday that he will step down as president of the Palestinian Authority, effective at the next election, scheduled for January. In doing so, he blamed Israeli and U.S. leaders for betraying the peace process he cherished.

But this man, who had staked his career on reaching a two-state solution to the conflict with Israel, will likely serve his people's needs better by leaving the scene.

While crowds gathered last night in Ramallah to protest his resignation, and members of his ruling Fatah party said they will never find anyone to replace him, most Palestinians have held no great affection for the man for some time.

He brought a yawn to people's faces more often than a smile.

That's not to say that he didn't try.

In the late 1950s, Mr. Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) was - with Yasser Arafat - among the founders of Fatah, the first Palestinian resistance movement. As early as 1974, he reached out to the Israeli left, searching for partners in a peace process. And in the early 1990s he was among the architects of the Oslo peace accord. With Israeli cabinet minister Yossi Beilin, he formulated the Beilin-Abu Mazen plan that remains a blueprint on which other peace proposals have been modelled.
But since taking over the Palestinian Authority after Mr. Arafat's death in 2004, Mr. Abbas has largely been a disappointment.

"Look at his track record," said Diana Buttu, a former adviser. "He was elected on promises to create Palestinian institutions and to end corruption. But we still don't have viable institutions and there's been no end to the corruption."

And it's not only the broken promises, Ms. Buttu says. "In 2005, he really had a chance to help the people of Gaza," she said, referring to the year Israel unilaterally withdrew its forces and settlers from the Gaza Strip. "That was when the world was paying attention, ready to help. But he did nothing."

Worse, she said, "that was when he escalated tensions with Hamas." He picked a fight with them, "rather than helping the people."

More recently, Mr. Abbas again disappointed the people of Gaza. When Israel fought a war against Hamas last December, the Palestinian leader remained largely silent. In fact, he spent much of the conflict outside the Palestinian territories, and when Palestinians in the West Bank rose to protest against the continuing conflict in Gaza, Mr. Abbas's security forces broke up the rallies.

"All this is indicative of a leader who didn't know how to lead," Ms. Buttu concluded.

"I think he cared more what Israel and the U.S. thought of him than his own people."

Ironically, they were the parties Mr. Abbas blamed for his decision to quit.

His departure, nonetheless, has implications for the main Palestinian political players and for the peace process:

Palestinian Authority

Though some predict Mr. Abbas may tear down the PA before he leaves, more likely the effect will be minimal. For one thing, Mr. Abbas says he'll stay in office until there's an election, and that could be a long time. Though he called for one on Jan. 24, the Palestinian election committee has said there shouldn't be a vote unless Gaza and East Jerusalem are included. Hamas, to date, has ruled out participating, and Israel may not let Jerusalem Palestinians vote. But even if there is an election, his prime minister, Salaam Fayyad, will ensure a smooth transition after the vote.

Fatah

His leaving will likely make an improvement. Despite the tears last night, those who are crying most are the ones who owe their positions to Mr. Abbas. The movement has been weakened since before Mr. Arafat's death. The popular choice to lead the party into the next election would be Marwan Barghouti, but he's in an Israeli prison and not coming out soon. That doesn't mean Fatah is without viable candidates. And the very process of finding one - a new concept to the leaders - will do the party good.

The peace process

Despite his devotion to the process, his absence could do more good than harm. For one thing, his successor may find it easier to meet with the Israelis unencumbered by the preconditions Mr. Abbas set. It also is possible that his successor will put off talks and seek first to mend bridges with Hamas, something that was difficult for Mr. Abbas who had come to despise the group. In either event, it has to be an improvement of the current stalemate.

Hamas

Mr. Abbas's leaving likely will strengthen the group. While some see Hamas moving to agree more quickly to reconciliation with Fatah (perhaps in an effort to keep Mr. Abbas in office, instead of a stronger successor), the Islamic Resistance Movement has shown it can outlast the Fatah leadership. As Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said last night, Mr. Abbas's reluctance to run for re-election is "a clear message ... that the path of negotiations has failed." Hamas should pick up a lot of support from its apparent victory.

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The men most likely to try to succeed Mahmoud Abbas

Mohammed Dahlan

Perhaps the man with the greatest chance to win an election is this 48-year-old former chief of security and powerful member of Fatah. Mr. Dahlan is said to be favoured by both Israel and the United States, largely for his efforts to rein in the second intifada, and has a strong institutional base. One drawback is that he hails from Gaza and might not have enough votes in the West Bank.

Mustafa Barghouti

Not to be confused with cousin Marwan, who is in prison in Israel, Dr. Barghouti, 55, ran second to Mr. Abbas in the 2005 presidential election, garnering 19 per cent of the vote. A physician, he directs a network of medical-relief committees that provide a semblance of health care in the Palestinian territories. Running for the Independent Palestinian list (along with Hanan Ashrawi and Yasser Abed Rabbo), Dr. Barghouti won election to the Legislative Council in 2006, and served briefly as minister of information. He is best known as a leader of the non-violent resistance movement against Israeli occupation. As such, he champions the boycott and sanctions campaign against Israel.

Salaam Fayyad

The current Palestinian prime minister is not a member of the ruling Fatah party, but that doesn't prevent him from running for president. Mr. Fayyad, 57, is another person with backing in Washington and Jerusalem. He is viewed by most people as a technocrat. A former World Bank and IMF official, he has tried to instill order and economic development in the West Bank.

Aziz Dwaik

Hamas may very well run a candidate in a presidential election. If it does, it will likely be this 59-year-old former geography professor who was elected speaker of the Legislative Council and is Hamas's political leader in the West Bank. Indeed, according to the Palestinian constitution, Dr. Dwaik was supposed to have been made acting president when Mr. Abbas's term expired a year ago. Dr. Dwaik, a resident of Hebron, is highly popular within Islamic circles, as evidenced by the enormous rallies that greeted his release from jail in June. However, his public support for the idea of living in peace alongside Israel could win him votes in the secular community.