Jim Kingsland
FoxBusiness
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 01:12 UTC
But a two tiered market has developed where speculators have been badly burned trading gold futures, while some investors holding actual physical gold have not only managed to keep their shirts, but have held on to gains for the year.
Dealers and analysts are calling it an "upside down" market where physical gold, including coins and bars, are in short supply and far more expensive than the price quoted on New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division.
What's sparking the demand for physical gold? You need to look no further than the financial landscape surrounding investors.
"I've never seen anything like this," says Scott A. Travers, author of The Coin Collector's Survival Manual. "1979 and 1980, the go-go years of Jimmy Carter, gas lines, inflation, interest rates at extraordinary levels had people rushing to tangibles. The frenzied pace for yellow metal today has exceeded those tumultuous levels."
On top of a slowing economy, liquidation by cash hungry hedge funds has gotten much of the blame for the slide in commodities futures prices including the metals group.
In recent trading, the active December contract has traded in the area of $740 per ounce, while one-ounce bars of gold have been trading at or near 20% premiums to the front-month futures contract, according to gold dealers. Usually the premium is only about 5%.
The same goes for silver, where Comex paper futures are trading at just over $9 an ounce, compared to physical supplies commanding prices above $12 an ounce.
There's an even greater discrepancy involving average uncirculated one-ounce late 19th and early 20th century gold coins known as $20 Liberty and $20 St. Gaudens coins. These particular gold coins, which normally attract a price of about $70 an ounce above spot, are attracting bids of at least $1,100 a piece.
Online auction sites have experienced active auctions for one-ounce gold coins. A quick check of eBay yields a variety of examples of gold coins trading at big premiums to the spot price. A 1908 one ounce $20 Double Gold Eagle had attracted more than two dozen bids and price of over $1200.
Says Travers, "physical gold does well in times of economic distress, calamity and blood in the streets," adding that "gold is really a quasi-currency; as people worry about a possible collapse of the banking system. With (Treasury Secretary) Paulson's change of policy on how to use TARP funds, the collapse of the global banking system is still not off the table."
While the price of gold futures has sunk into the low $700 per ounce range, World Gold Council data show that a pricing floor may be developing, even for beaten-down Comex contracts, due to lower gold production. Through the second half of the year, the Gold Council reported a 4% drop in mining output and a decline in central bank sales.






















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Fort Knox melt bars (US govt melted coins from the Roosevelt era confiscation - 90% purity), as opposed to "good trade" .9999 purity bars, are showing up around the world, which could mean that the US is settling debts/futures contracts with the bottom of the barrel of the US people's gold reserves.
Meanwhile, yesterday Ron Paul grilled Paulson about a rumor of a return to gold as a backing for US currency. Paulson flatly denied this, stating that the Central Band gold discussions only relate to further sales into the market.
Steve Lendman's latest blog, Worse Than The Great Depression, notes [Link]
"Another issue is what gold price would be legislated to reflate world economies. Who can say, but here are some possibilities Edelson sees, and note the dramatic effect on the precious metal if he's right:
-- if 100% of public and private sector debt is monetized, "the official government price of gold would have to be raised to about $53,000 per ounce;"
-- at 50% monitization, gold would be $26,500 an ounce;
-- at 20%, it would be $10,600 an ounce; and
-- at 10%, it would be $5300 an ounce."
The rigged market in gold, with its artificially low paper gold spot price, is bankrupting gold mining companies. The banksters will swoop in and buy all of that gold in the ground for pennies on the dollar.
This has to all end very badly... just as planned.